Winter 2013-2014 Outlook for northern and eastern Maine

The official outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) for the winter of 2013-2014 for northern and eastern Maine calls for an increased likelihood of above normal temperatures.  There are no strong climate signals that point toward an unusually wet (snowy) or dry winter. 

Without either El Niño or La Niña present, we often use recent climate trends to get insight about what might arise. The average of the past 15 winters has been warmer than average for all of the winters between 1981-2010 across Maine.  This is what tilts the odds in favor of a warmer than normal winter.  It is important to keep in mind that this is a forecast for the average temperature for the entire meteorological winter (December through February).  It does not mean that there will not be a period(s) of extreme cold, just that odds favor that the average temperature for the entire winter will be above normal. It is also important to point out that in the absence of El Niño or La Niña that the skill in making these seasonal forecasts is much lower than when there is a moderate or strong El Niño or La Niña as we head into the winter.

Patterns that can strongly influence our winter weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation, are just not predictable on time scales beyond a week or two. These atmospheric patterns can change from week to week and have the potential to deliver cold, snowy weather throughout the winter season.