Here comes Hurricane Arthur (Cat. 1) Update Three

WOCN31 CWHX 041745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:04 PM ADT FRIDAY
4 JULY 2014.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA
      PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
      NEW BRUNSWICK
      QUEBEC MARITIME.

      FOR HURRICANE ARTHUR.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

      HURRICANE ARTHUR TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA WITH HIGH WINDS AND
      HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: 38.2 NORTH 72.5 WEST.

ABOUT 400 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 150 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 40 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND.  AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF VIRGINIA AND 
IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT IS MOVING 
EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND, GUIDING ARTHUR TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA.

ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA 
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM AT, OR NEAR, HURRICANE STRENGTH. 
ARTHUR WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WHILE 
TRACKING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA.  IT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION REGARDING WEEKEND PLANS THAT 
MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS.  IT IS 
EMPHASIZED THAT UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR THE LATEST 
FORECAST DECISIONS AND RATIONALE.  THESE ARE ISSUED FOUR TIMES DAILY.

A. WIND.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MARITIMES WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL 
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.  ELSEWHERE OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES, WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE EXPECTED.
TREE DAMAGE AND DOWNED UTILITY LINES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

IN ADDITION, STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR JUST AS ARTHUR PASSES BY 
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, AND THE 
REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA.

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC 
BORDERING THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND.  HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING 
CRITERIA.

B. RAINFALL.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE GASPÉ 
REGION OF QUEBEC WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.  OVER THESE 
REGIONS GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES ARE LIKELY WITH A 
GOOD PROBABILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 150 MILLIMETRES IN SOME 
LOCALITIES.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST FOR OTHER REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE 
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE INCLUDING ANTICOSTI ISLAND, LOWER QUEBEC 
NORTHSHORE AND WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS 
MAY BE ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY.  THE RAINFALL RATES ARE OF PARTICULAR 
CONCERN SINCE THEY COULD EXCEED 15 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR DURING A 
PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS.  THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL 
FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND CREEKS AND POSSIBLE ROAD WASHOUTS.

OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE LESS.  HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY 
OVER SOME AREAS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

HIGH WATER LEVELS AT THE COAST COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE ARRIVAL OF 
ARTHUR COINCIDES WITH HIGH TIDE.  FORTUNATELY THE STORM IS PASSING 
THROUGH THE REGION DURING A PERIOD OF LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, KNOWN 
AS NEAP TIDES, AND IN MANY LOCATIONS THE STORM SURGE WILL NOT BE IN 
PHASE WITH THE HIGH TIDE ITSELF, FOR INSTANCE WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES 
THE COAST NEAR YARMOUTH.

LARGE WAVES GIVING HEAVY POUNDING SURF ARE EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS 
SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THIS STORM IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE A 
MAJOR OR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LURCHER AND BROWNS
BANK MARINE AREAS.  STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT AND STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.

VISIT WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

...HURRICANE ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...

MEZ006-011-032-050315-
/O.EXA.KCAR.FF.A.0001.140704T2100Z-140705T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...
SMYRNA MILLS...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...SPRINGFIELD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MAINE...
  NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT. IN NORTHERN
  MAINE...SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK. IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...NORTHERN
  WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL TRAVEL NORTH ALONG
  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.

* RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
  THESE RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE RAPID RISES IN SMALL
  STREAMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

4:11 PM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Rainfall warning in effect for:

• Campbellton and eastern half of Restigouche County

Rainfall - overnight to evening Saturday.

Heavy rain is expected.

Hurricane Arthur continues to track northeastward and will merge with a cold front as it approaches the Maritimes tonight. This combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to most of New Brunswick overnight and through the day Saturday. Current indications suggest that rainfall will be in the 50 to 100 millimetre range however some parts of the province are expected to receive even higher rainfall amounts with as much as 140 mm possible in the southwest. A change in the track of the storm could push the area of heavy rain further north. If this happens rainfall warnings may be extended to northwestern sections of the province.

In addition, large waves giving pounding surf are likely along the east coast of New Brunswick from Bathurst to Cape Tormentine later in the day Saturday.

Rain will taper off and winds will ease across the province by Sunday morning as the system moves out over the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle or a person away. Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts. Keep children and pets away from creeks and river banks. Campers should move away from low lying areas.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NBStorm.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...

.HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

MEZ016-017-029-030-032-050345-
/O.NEW.KCAR.HW.W.0004.140705T1000Z-140705T2000Z/
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMHERST...AURORA...DEDHAM...EASTBROOK...
GREAT POND...ORLAND...DEBLOIS...GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...
PEMBROKE...PERRY...PRINCETON...ELLSWORTH...BAR HARBOR...
BLUE HILL...EASTPORT...MACHIAS...CHERRYFIELD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
  AND POWER LINES. POWER OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BLOWN DOWN DEBRIS MAY MAKE SOME ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE. SIGNIFICANT
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. MAKE SURE FLASHLIGHTS HAVE WORKING
BATTERIES.

&&
$$