Extratropical Storm Hermine Update One

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050257
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016

Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with all of the deep
convection located well north of the center.  Deep convection
associated with the system has increased over the northern and
northwestern portions of the circulation this evening, but it does
not appear that there has been an increase in wind speed.  The
initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with
recent SFMR wind observations from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft.  The aircraft has also recently reported a
minimum pressure of 997 mb.  Little change in strength is expected
overnight, but the global models indicate that weakening should
begin by late Monday.  Continued weakening is expected during the
remainder of the forecast period, and both the ECMWF and GFS
dissipate the cyclone by day 5, and this is now reflected in the
official forecast.

Hermine has continued to move eastward since the previous advisory,
but the most recent fix from the aircraft suggests that the eastward
motion may be ending.  A shortwave trough moving off the coast
of North Carolina should cause Hermine to turn northwestward later
tonight, then a slow north-northwestward or northward motion should
continue into Tuesday.  After that time, the cyclone should turn
northeastward around the western portion of the mid- to upper-level
ridge over the west-central Atlantic.  The NHC forecast track is
once again a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, but has been
adjusted slightly eastward based on the more eastward initial
position.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft and a recent ASCAT overpass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 37.2N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  05/1200Z 37.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  06/0000Z 38.7N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  06/1200Z 39.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  07/0000Z 39.8N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  08/0000Z 40.6N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  09/0000Z 42.5N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
FXUS61 KCAR 050112
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through Tuesday as
post tropical Hermine remains to the south of New England. A cold
front will cross the area late in the week as the remains of
Hermine begin to move east.

&&

.......LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Post tropical cyclone Hermine is expected to stay to the south
of New England into early Thursday then move to the east. Low
pressure will pass to the north of the state late Thursday then a
cold front will cross the region behind the low late Friday.
Another low will move across the region late Saturday into Sunday.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
849 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

MEZ029-030-050900-
/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0001.160905T1200Z-160906T0300Z/
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
849 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* SURF HEIGHT...5 TO 8 FT

* TIMING...MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING

* IMPACTS...HIGH DANGEROUS SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
  MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

* RIP CURRENTS...ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY
  AWAY FROM SHORE. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION
  TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

* HIGH SURF...LARGE WAVES CAN PRESENT A DANGER TO PEOPLE ON
  ROCKS ABOVE THE WATER. STAY AWAY FROM ROCK OUTCROPS ALONG THE
  SHORELINE EXPOSED TO OCEAN WAVES...AS WAVES CAN EASILY SWEEP
  PEOPLE INTO THE COLD OCEAN WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...DANGEROUS SURF WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO POST-
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...

.EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 10 FEET
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BEACH EROSION...AS
THE BEACHES ARE CONSTANTLY EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY SWELL. BEACH
GOERS ARE URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-051030-
/O.CON.KGYX.SU.Y.0001.160905T0600Z-160906T1200Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
241 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALL BEACHES AND COASTAL AREAS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
  MAINE.

* SURF HEIGHT...WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FEET IN LONG PERIOD
  SWELL.

* TIMING...SURF WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...DANGEROUSLY ROUGH
  SURF...AND BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL
FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
LONGSHORE CURRENTS COMMONLY OCCUR WHEN WAVES APPROACH THE
SHORELINE AT AN ANGLE. THEY CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS NEAR A
JETTY OR PIER.

&&

$$

ES

9:34 AM ADT Sunday 04 September 2016
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:

• Annapolis County
• Digby County
• Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
• Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
• Lunenburg County
• Queens County
• Shelburne County
• Yarmouth County

For Tropical Storm Hermine.

Post-tropical cyclone Hermine is currently located well south of Long Island, New York, and southeast of New Jersey. It will curve back towards the United States East Coast tonight, and then stall.

It will remain offshore, east of New Jersey and south of Long Island, until at least mid-week next week, and should remain outside of Canadian waters until then.

At this time, Hermine is not expected to have a direct impact on Canadian territory over the Labour Day weekend. However, some potential impacts are possible mid to late next week. The public is urged to monitor the progress of Hermine over the weekend for any significant changes to the forecast.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre continues to monitor this storm closely and will update this information bulletin on Monday.

Forecaster(s):Murtha/Robichaud/Mercer
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.