That Fella Jose Lingers Offshore Update One

2:42 PM ADT Thursday 21 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Tropical Storm Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to drift slowly offshore well southwest of Nova Scotia - No land impacts except for rough surf along part of the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 39.5 North 68.0 West.
About 260 kilometres southeast of Nantucket.

Maximum sustained winds: 95 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Nearly stationary.

Minimum central pressure: 985 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Big picture:

Tropical storm Jose is currently located over offshore waters well southwest of Nova Scotia. The tropical storm will continue to weaken as it drifts very slowly southward. It will take another couple of days for the storm to dissipate completely.

Hurricane Maria, a category 3 hurricane, is now heading toward the Turks and Caicos islands. It will be located east of the Bahamas during the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether the Canadian Hurricane Centre will be issuing regular bulletins on it. Stay tuned.

a. Wind.

Light to moderate easterly winds over Nova Scotia will persist into the night. Winds gusts between 40 to 60 km/h have been observed along the south shore.

b. Rainfall.

No rainfall from Jose is expected to affect land areas in Canada.

c. Surge/Waves.

Rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia. Swells near 3 metres continue tonight along the coast from Yarmouth County to Queens County. For Lunenburg County, Halifax County and Guysborough County, swells of 2 metres will persist tonight. These swells will taper off on Friday into the weekend. There is also a risk of dangerous rip currents during this period and the public should exercise caution near the beaches.

Tides will be high due to the new moon phase but no storm surge is expected. The combination of large waves and tides will lead to water running up fairly high along the shorelines but we are not expecting water level to cause any issues.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district today and most of tonight. Gale warnings are in effect for Browns Bank, Georges Bank, La Have Bank and West Scotian Slope. Waves of 4 to 6 metres are occurring over the southwesternmost Maritime waters.

Forecaster: Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCAR 212010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod
and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High
pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds
across the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong high pressure will persist over the region tonight into
Friday then weaken later in the day Friday. Some clouds from
Jose are possible along coastal areas tonight into Friday but
not rain is expected from the storm. The north will remain
mostly clear Tonight and Friday.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm this evening
for the coast. Some splash-over is also possible at the time of
high tide later this morning. More on this in the Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Unseasonably warm conditions expected this weekend...

What`s left of any hi cldnss from slowly weakening and departing
Maria in the open Atlc SE of Cape Cod will dissipate Fri ngt
into Sat morn. Otherwise, xpct, msly clr skies and lgt winds Fri
ngt. Cannot rule out late ngt patchy fog for parts of the area,
but milder ovrngt lows compared to tngt and antecedent dry
ground conditions will be lmtg factors, so we so not show any
fog in our fcst grids for Fri ngt attm.

Sat will be msly sunny and sig warmer with msly lgt west winds
as high pres alf conts to build, xcpt aftn sea breeze for
Downeast areas. A weak s/wv movg E across Cntrl QB could bring
some hi cldnss to Nrn ptns of the FA late Sat ngt and Sun morn.

Otherwise, most model guidance shows an additional surge of
warmer and somewhat more humid air movg into the Rgn from the W
by Sun aftn. The only lmtg factor to area wide record hi temps
Sun aftn may be the amt of sunshine across NE ptns of the Rgn
which will be in the NE quadrant of a very large and
unseasonably strong upper ridge. If the 12z GFS model and
supporting ensm run is correct, however, the hi temp fcst of
lower 80s for low trrn lctns N will be conservative by 3 to 5
deg F. Other models like the 12z ECMWF show a delay of the
arrival of the warmest air until nearly eve, and the 12z CanGem
model, interestingly enough shows a back door cold front sliding
across the Rgn on Sun. Given past trends of CPC guidance
regarding the strength of the upper hi, we have discounted the
12z CanGem model attm. Sun ngt will be mostly clear to partly
cloudy and quite mild for this tm of season.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mon will cont to be ptly to msly sunny and unseasonably warm
across the Rgn, with most models advertising a back door cold
front beginning to move Swrd into Nrn ME from Ern QB by aftn.
Subsequently, Hi temps may be a little cooler across the far N.
We tried to split the difference with the tmg of the cold front
passage from the faster GFS and slightly slower ECMWF. Both
models bring the front to near the Downeast coast by Tue morn.
With little in the way of frontal cnvrg and very stable lapse
rates alf, we do not xpct much in the way of shwrs with this
feature, with only some cldnss.

Additional s/wvs will continue to flatten the NE U.S. upper
ridge and will bring the Rgn better shwr chcs from late Wed thru
Thu with perhaps appreciable rnfl amts for the Rgn Wed ngt into
Thu. Hi and low temps Tue thru Thu will be cooler, but still
sig abv seasonal norms with ovrngt lows Thu ngt behind a
strongercold front closer to seasonal avgs.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd area wide from Fri ngt
through Tue with perhaps a pd of MVFR cldnss across Nrn
most TAF sites late Mon ngt into Tue morn.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids,
however there is still a strong inversion resulting from the
relatively cold sea surface temperature. Therefore have reduced
the wind speeds from the NAM by 20 percent to adjust for high
bias. For Waves: Currently long period swell from Jose (7-8
feet/12 seconds) is still entering the Gulf of Maine. This wave
system will subside tonight into Friday but due to additional
waves being generated by the weakening storm the process will be
slow. A secondary northeasterly wind wave system has also
developed across the Gulf of Maine but this wave group will also
subside tonight as high pressure builds down from the north.
Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to
initialize the wave grids but will lower model wave heights by 1
foot to adjust for high bias resulting from cold sea surface
temperature.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA seas from long pd swell from slowly
weakening Jose will still be continuing Fri ngt into Sat.
Following this, there may be a break in from SCA conditions
Sun and Mon before wv hts increase back into the SCA range by
midweek from long distance swell radiating from Maria as it
tracks well SE of our waters. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts. Wv pds will be exceptionally long, ranging from 12
to 16 sec, with the longest pd swells erly next week from
Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 12
seconds/7-8 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to to slowly subside Tonight and Friday. Will extend
the high surf advisory into Friday Morning. Concern is that long
period waves high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much
higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the
danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip
Currents are also expected.

Some minor beach erosion is possible however Runup, splashover,
flooding due to storm surge are not expected.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Mignone/VJN
Marine...Mignone/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and
west of the center.  The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of
extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds,
especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day.  An
ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and
since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the
initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value.

Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause
Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images
suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24
hours, or sooner.  The intensity models are in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one.

Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline
during the past several hours.  Since the cyclone is expected to
remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during
the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids.

The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from
around 1500 UTC.  The forecast wind radii follows the guidance
provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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