Intense Hybrid Storm Arrives

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292032
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Philippe Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

During the past few hours, strong vertical wind shear in excess of
50 kt, plus merger with a cold front, has taken its toll on
Philippe's previously well-defined low-level circulation. The system
has become elongated north-to-south within the frontal zone, and a
new low-level center may have developed about 150 nmi farther north
along the frontal boundary near NOAA buoy 41002. Now that Philippe
has lost any tropical or subtropical characteristics due to merger
with a synoptic-scale cold front, the system is declared to have
dissipated.

Much of the latent heat and deep convection associated with
Philippe's remnants will likely be drawn into a larger extratropical
low pressure that is developing near the outer banks of North
Carolina, aiding in that intensification process. Although the
developing powerful low near the Outer Banks is not directly
associated with Philippe, interests along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coasts should closely monitor forecast products
issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center, and your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 31.0N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

919
FXUS61 KCAR 291904
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Intense low pressure will track to our west tonight through
Monday bringing strong winds. The low will continue north
through Quebec Monday night into Tuesday as strong gusty winds
continue behind the low.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Intensifying low pressure combining a deep trough to our west
and tropical storm Philippe off the Southeast coast will track
north into the Hudson Valley tonight. The tightening gradient
between the strong low and high pressure to our east will bring
increasing winds overnight with very strong winds expected
across the area from late tonight through Monday. The strongest
winds Downeast and along the coast will be early Monday morning
with the highest winds further north during the morning and
midday. A high wind warning remains up for the entire area late
tonight through Monday. The storm will bring a windswept rain
tonight into Monday with amounts ranging from an inch north to
two inches in west central locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Low pressure wl hv lifted north twd Hudson Bay by the beginning of
the short term pd. May see a few lingering showers acrs the north as
cyclonic flow conts in the evng. Skies wl clr fm south to north drg
the ovrngt hrs hwvr with low-lvl moisture rmng acrs the north
expect pcldy skies on Tue. Gusty sw winds cont on Tue leading to
temps once again abv normal as minimal caa wl exist.

Hipres wl build south of the area Tue night into Wed with sw flow
aloft. H8 temps wl drop thru the end of the short term with temps
Tue night and Wed just slightly blo seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Next system wl wrap up to the west Wed night and spread rain,
and possibly snow showers in the St. John Vly, into CWA by Thur
morning. Temps quickly rise in the morning with all rain during
the day. System wl bring cold front thru Fri night with colder
air expected for Sat. May see isold snow showers Sat morning
acrs the north bfr finally heading north and east. Hipres wl
quickly follow for the first half off the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions are expected tonight through
Monday with very strong winds from late tonight through Monday.
Some wind shear is likely for SSE winds up to 50 kt at 2K ft.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Mon night as low pressure
pulls off to the north. Gusty southwest winds will continue
through Tue evening. VFR expected through Wed night before
lowering to MVFR in showers Thursday through the end of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Powerful low pressure lifting to our west is expected
to bring strong winds, and wind gusts up to hurricane force,
very late tonight into early Monday morning. The tightest
gradient across the waters is expected to occur around, or just
before dawn Monday morning. A hurricane force wind warning is
being issued for the offshore waters from 2 AM to 8 AM with a
storm warning for the intracoastal waters. Seas are expected to
quickly build to over 20 feet early Monday morning in response
to the strong winds.

SHORT TERM: Expect storm conditions Mon morning into the

afternoon hours before diminishing to gales and remaining high
through Tue morning. SCA conditions will continue through the
middle of the week as winds and seas remain high.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Current storm surge models forecasting 1.5 foot storm surge
however expect this to be closer to around 2 feet since the
storm surge models are based on GFS wind forcing and forecaster
winds are a little higher than model winds. In addition, off-
shore wave heights of up to 28 feet and breaking wave heights in
the surf zone of up to 14 feet are expected. Will issue a
Coastal Flood Statement for splash-over and minor beach erosion.

Astronomical high tides Monday Morning are well below the
highest levels of the month. Therefore concern over coastal
flooding is greatly reduced. However with large breaking waves
in the surf-zone some minor splash over or overtopping in
exposed areas can be expected. In Machias storm surge is
expected to be a little higher (2.5 feet) due to the convergent
shape of the Machias Bay, so with the astronomical tide of 11.8
feet combined with the storm surge, water levels are still
expected to stay below the critical flood level of 16.93 feet
MLLW.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ052.
     Hurricane Force Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar
Marine...Bloomer/Farrar
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
237 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

ANZ050-051-300245-
/O.CON.KCAR.HF.W.0001.171030T0600Z-171030T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT
25 NM-
237 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.

* SEAS...13 TO 18 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
415 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 64 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF
MONDAY MORNING.

ANZ150-152-154-301015-
/O.CON.KGYX.HF.W.0001.171030T0600Z-171030T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT
25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH, ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER, MA OUT
25 NM-
415 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.

* SEAS...20 TO 25 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&
$$

3:46 PM ADT Sunday 29 October 2017
Wind warning in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system over Cape Hatteras this afternoon will continue to intensify as it approaches New England tonight and Monday.

Strong southeast winds with gusts to 90 km/h will develop Monday afternoon. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish Monday evening.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

3:43 PM ADT Sunday 29 October 2017
Wind warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras this afternoon will continue to intensify as it approaches New England tonight and Monday.

Strong southeast winds with gusts to 90 km/h will develop over western Nova Scotia Monday morning and spread to eastern Nova Scotia in the afternoon. Winds will diminish below the warning criteria of 90 km/h in the afternoon over western areas of the province, and elsewhere in the evening.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 3:42 PM ADT Sunday 29 October 2017
Wind warning in effect for:

Acadian Peninsula
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system developing near Cape Hatteras this afternoon will intensify into an intense fall storm as it tracks west of the Maritimes tonight and Monday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting up to 90 km/h will develop early Monday morning over southwestern New Brunswick and later in the afternoon over the Acadian Peninsula. Winds will diminish slightly and shift to the southwest Monday afternoon and evening.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.