Erin on her way

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282034
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with
the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier
ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001.  Northwesterly shear
should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains
over warm waters tonight.  If deep convection does not return soon,
the system is likely to become post-tropical.  Erin or its remnants
should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could
strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time.  The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical
gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn
north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
trough.  After that time, it is expected to accelerate
north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 34.5N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 36.8N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 40.7N  68.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0600Z 45.3N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 50.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

FXCN31 CWHX 281800
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.44 PM ADT
Wednesday 28 August 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT, tropical depression Erin was located near latitude
33.7 N and longitude 73.1 W, about 153 nautical miles or 284 km
southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
30 knots (56 km/h) and central pressure at 1005 MB. Erin is moving
north at 11 knots (20 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Aug 28  3.00 PM  33.7N  73.1W  1005   30   56
Aug 29  3.00 AM  37.1N  70.9W  1005   30   56
Aug 29  3.00 PM  41.0N  68.2W  1002   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 AM  45.3N  64.3W  1000   40   74 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 PM  49.5N  60.1W   998   40   74 post-tropical
Aug 31  3.00 AM  53.9N  55.4W  1003   35   65 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis


Erin has diminished again to a tropical depression. It is starting to
accelerate northwards, moving away from any useful convection.
Currently it is a healthy but shallow circulation. Intensity is held
at 30 kts partially based on buoy 44001 and the cira wind analysis.
Erin is moving north at about 10 kts.

B. Prognostic

Since Erin has moved away from any reasonable chance for convective
development, there is little chance of development before it gets
caught up in the southerly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough
appraching from the eastern ubited states. Phase space guidance from
most models indicate extra-tropical transition should be fairly rapid
and the system should be fully transitioned to post-tropical by the
time it moves into Canadian waters later on Thursday. The latest CHC
track has been nudged northward again as per the recent model
consensus, which should take the center of post-tropical Erin
somewhere over Nova Scotia Thursday and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence
on Friday. It will move east of Labrador and away on Saturday.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
28/18Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
29/06Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
29/18Z  100 100  20   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/06Z  115 115  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/18Z  120 120  50   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/06Z  120 120  60   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/MERCER/BORGEL

2:39 PM ADT Wednesday 28 August 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Depression Erin.

The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Depression Erin will begin tracking northeastward toward the Maritimes later today. Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical storm well before it reaches southwestern Nova Scotia early Friday morning. Erin will bring heavy rain to much of the region beginning Thursday and strong, gusty winds with its passage Thursday night into Friday.

1. Summary of basic information at 03:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 33.7 North 73.1 West.

About distance 284 kilometres southeast of Cape Hatteras NC.

Maximum sustained winds: 56 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 20 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical Depression Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical system by the time it enters Canadian waters on Thursday. Rain associated with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will spread over the western Maritimes early Thursday morning. As Erin approaches later on Thursday, some of its moisture will feed into this trough and likely enhance the rain intensity associated with it. The heavier rain and strongest winds associated directly with post-tropical Erin should reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later Thursday evening.

a. Wind.

Some gusty winds will likely accompany post-tropical Erin, especially to those areas just to the right of its track early Friday morning. At this time it is not expected that these winds will reach warning criteria (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.

b. Rainfall.

The combination of Post-Tropical Erin and its interaction with the trough of low pressure crossing the region on Thursday will combine to produce significant rainfall. Rainfall will likely meet or exceed warning criteria (50 mm or more in 24 hours) in parts of the Maritimes, especially those areas just north and west of Erin's track. Some isolated locations in these areas could possibly see total rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm before the rain ends later Friday morning

c. Surge/Waves.

At this time, warning level storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not expected. However, some higher than normal water levels and high surf are possible near and to the right of the Erin's track where it is expected to cross the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Friday. After midnight into Friday morning waves near 4 metres will spread from west to east along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, and will break higher along the beaches. Rip currents will also be an issue, and the public should exercise caution near the coast.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings have been issued for the southwestern Maritimes marine waters, where gale force southerlies up to 40 knots are expected by Thursday evening. These gale warnings will likely be extended to adjacent marine areas for Friday near and along Erin's path through Canadian waters.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Borgel