Catastrophic Category Four Hurricane Dorian a Potential Long Range Threat to the Region Update One

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE
OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is moving very
slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  Sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine
observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island.  A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently report at
Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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FXUS61 KCAR 021621
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak area of low pressure will cross the region today and
be followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure crosses the
region Tuesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday. High
pressure crosses the region Thursday into Friday as Dorian
remains south of the area......

.....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The cold front will push off the coast Wed evening and will be
followed by high pressure building toward northern Maine from
Canada.  The high should settle over the area by Fri morning.
Generally dry/cool weather will follow for Thu into Fri with the
potential for frost in the northwest valleys Fri morning. Did go on
the colder side of the guidance with lows near 30F at Estcourt
Station, and did add patchy frost and a small area of areas of
frost late Thu night, mainly in the valleys of zones 1 3, and
4.

Attention turns to Dorian.  The operational GFS and ECMWF have
Dorian near or south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Sat; however, a
review of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members from the 12Z/1st
indicate this as a strong outlier with the majority of the
members still having Dorian near South Carolina or along/off the
Middle Atlantic coast by 12Z Sat. The past two runs of the GFS
ensembles are further north like the operational run, however,
most members are further east than the operational run. The
latest 00z GFS run would certainly be a worst case scenario with
a 962 mb low moving up the Bay of Fundy. That said, confidence
on impacts in our FA remain very low at this time. If the storm
does end remaining well south of the area by Fri night it would
very likely get picked up and carried out well to the south of
our FA at some point later next weekend. For now will not have
anything higher than chance Pops Down east and slight chance
across the north......

&&