Erin about to arrive Update Two

FXCN31 CWHX 291800
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.49 PM ADT
Thursday 29 August 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT, post-tropical storm Erin was located near latitude
40.2 N and longitude 68.0 W, about 233 nautical miles or 431 km
south-southwest of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
35 knots (65 km/h) and central pressure at 1003 MB. Erin is moving
north-northeast at 21 knots (39 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Aug 29  3.00 PM  40.2N  68.0W  1003   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 29  9.00 PM  42.4N  66.4W  1002   45   83 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 AM  44.3N  64.6W  1001   40   74 post-tropical
Aug 30  9.00 AM  46.9N  62.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 30  3.00 PM  49.3N  59.8W  1000   35   65 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Post-tropical storm Erin seems fairly healthy based on the cloud
structure, with a nice precursor band left of track and extendeing
out ahead, and a small front right of track with good convection. An
ASCAT a pass at 1330Z shows a north-south trough with multiple weak
centers. We are basing our fix on the one related to the pre band and
the "cold front" with moderate to low confidence. Initial motion is
to the northeast at 21 kts.

B. Prognostic

Given the current storm structure and convectiuon,  and ssts above 26
c into southwestern forecast waters, a modest increase in intensity
is forecast, then as it moves into colder waters the intensity will
diminish to marginal gales.

Other than this there is no change to the previous forecast track or
philosophy. Erin has become embedded in the baroclinic trough
approaching from the Eastern United States.  What remains of Erin
should track over Nova Scotia tonight into Friday morning as an
embedded feature in the frontal trough crossing the province.  Beyond
Friday afternoon Erin is no longer expected to be a discernable
feature and as such the CHC track does not extend beyond that point.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
29/18Z   30 110  30   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/00Z   35 130  35   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/06Z   40 130  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/12Z   40 140  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/18Z   40 140  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MERCER

2:44 PM ADT Thursday 29 August 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Post-tropical Storm Erin.

The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Erin, now a Post-tropical system, will continue tracking northeastward towards the Maritimes. Erin is bringing heavy rain to much of the region today, and strong gusty winds to parts of Nova Scotia tonight.


1. Summary of basic information at 03:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 40.2 North 68.0 West.

About distance 431 kilometres south-southwest of Yarmouth NS.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northeast at 39 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars.


2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Rain associated with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will continue to spread across the Maritimes. As Post-tropical Erin approaches, some of its moisture will feed into this trough and likely enhance the rain intensity associated with it. The heavier rain and strongest winds associated directly with Post-Tropical Erin should reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later this evening or early Friday morning.

a. Wind.

Some gusty winds will likely accompany Post-tropical Erin, especially to those areas just to the right of its track as it crosses Nova Scotia later tonight. It is not expected that these winds will reach warning criteria (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.

b. Rainfall.

The combination of Post-tropical Erin and its interaction with the trough of low pressure crossing the region today will combine to produce significant rainfall. Rainfall will likely meet or exceed warning criteria (50 mm or more in 24 hours) in parts of the Maritimes, especially those areas just north and west of Erin's track. Some isolated locations in these areas could possibly see total rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm before the rain ends later Friday morning.

Rainfall warnings are now in effect for southern New Brunswick, parts of western and northern Nova Scotia, and western Prince Edward Island.

c. Surge/Waves.

Significant storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not expected. After midnight into Friday morning, waves near 4 metres will spread from west to east along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia and will break higher along the beaches. Rip currents could also be an issue, and the public should exercise caution near the coast.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect for most Maritimes waters near and to the right of Erin's track through the marine district, where gale force southerlies up to 45 knots are possible.

Forecaster(s): Mercer