Hurricane Dorian weakens to a Category Two, finally moves North

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
355 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-040800-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
355 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A cold front will cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There will be the chance of thunderstorms, and any thunderstorms that
develop may contain gusty wind.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to track up the east Coast mid to late
week. The storm is expected to pass south of the Gulf of Maine
Saturday. The wind will likely strengthen out of the northeast along
and near the coast. The best chance of heavier rain will be along
the Downeast coast and across Washington County. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and
your local National Weather Service Forecast Office in Caribou.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 031652
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1252 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build across the region today. A cold front
will cross the area late Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the area Thursday into Friday. Dorian will track south of
the Gulf of Maine Friday night into Saturday.
&&

.....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Thursday night is shaping up as a mainly clear and chilly night
as high pressure continues to build east from Quebec province.
Looks like we will be looking at another potential frost
Thursday night across the colder valleys of Northwest Maine and
we will likely need frost advisories for some areas of the far
north.

Friday will be a dry day with highs a bit below normal for this
time of year. Clouds will be on the increase later Friday as the
attention then turns to eventual track of Dorian. The 00z runs
of the operational GFS/EC take Dorian just to the south of and
then across eastern Nova Scotia. The 00z Canadian is even a bit
farther east then the GFS/EC. Most of the GFS ensembles also
keep Dorian well to our south and east. Please refer to the
latest official forecast information on Dorian from the National
Hurricane Center.

The remnants of Dorian will then move away from the region
Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure is expected to build
toward the region early next week............

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to
move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm
surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today.  The
eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite
imagery.  While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has
increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged.  Recent reports
from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall
wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak
winds have come down a little more.  The latest reports from the
aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt.  As Dorian moves
near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little
overall change in intensity is anticipated.  After that time,
increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size.
The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt.  A shortwave trough moving
into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to
amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United
States on Wednesday.  This should allow Dorian to begin moving
slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours,
followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over
the coasts of South and North Carolina.  After moving offshore of
the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude
westerlies and accelerate northeastward.  The NHC track is along the
western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours,
closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that
time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind
field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track
will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the
Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches
and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours.  Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's
center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 27.1N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 29.2N  79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  79.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 32.1N  79.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 35.3N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 40.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 48.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown