Tropical Storm Fay Makes Landfall In New Jersey

738
WTNT31 KNHC 102342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude
74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this
evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western
New England tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after
Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center.  NOAA
buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and
a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from
northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New
Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain
could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on
small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but
widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening
across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

352
WTNT41 KNHC 102046
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the
central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep
convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The
deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with
the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the
center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix
from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure
estimate of 998 mb.

Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to
interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to
persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay
is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those
winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by
that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone
and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track
forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania
northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New
England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas
with poor drainage.  While isolated minor flooding is possible,
widespread river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 39.5N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 41.7N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 45.7N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 49.6N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan