Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Four) Churns In The Atlantic

 000

WTNT35 KNHC 190257

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL 

ATLANTIC...

...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W

ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West.  Teddy is moving

toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a

turn toward the north late this weekend.  On the forecast track,

Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are 

likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to 

begin on Sunday.

Teddy is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward 

up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 

winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and

the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger

throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser

Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to

Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday.  These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT45 KNHC 190259

TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite 

images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although 

recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the 

southeastern part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 

well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and 

not as strong to the south.  Earlier microwave images showed a 

concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has 

re-intensified slightly over the past several hours.  The current 

intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective 

and objective Dvorak estimates.  Some additional fluctuations in 

strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through 

Saturday.  On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and 

atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening.  However, 

Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. 

The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even 

larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a 

high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern 

United States.  Teddy is expected to make the transition to an 

extratropical cyclone when  it moves into Atlantic Canada.   

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 

325/11 kt.  Teddy should move around the western side of a 

subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so.  Then, the 

cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as 

it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low 

as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days.  The track 

of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the 

trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia.  Around the end of the 

forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn 

northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level 

trough.  The official track forecast is close to the corrected model 

consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large 

waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic 

basin.  See the Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda

late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm

surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch

is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical

cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early

next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from

wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor

the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the

weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions

of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,

the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the

next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 24.0N  57.4W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  19/1200Z 25.5N  58.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  20/0000Z 27.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  20/1200Z 29.0N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  21/0000Z 30.8N  62.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 60H  21/1200Z 33.5N  61.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  22/0000Z 37.7N  61.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  23/0000Z 45.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  24/0000Z 50.5N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Pasch

2:31 PM ADT Friday 18 September 2020

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Hurricane Teddy.

The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 A.M. ADT Saturday.

Hurricane Teddy will approach the Maritimes early next week with impacts likely for parts of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As of Friday afternoon, major hurricane Teddy is currently southeast of Bermuda and is moving northwestward. Teddy will continue on its current path over the next few days before making a turn northward on Sunday. Teddy is then expected to enter the Canadian Hurricane Centre response zone on Monday before approaching the Maritimes on Tuesday.

Track errors this far in advance remain large, but the latest computer modelling suggests that the centre of Teddy could make landfall along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Tuesday. Possible impacts include strong, potentially damaging winds, storm surge along with pounding surf, and heavy rainfall.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the evolution of this potentially dangerous storm. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor forecasts this weekend as the situation continues to evolve.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular updates on Teddy beginning 09:00 AM Saturday.

Forecaster(s): McArthur.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

000

FXUS61 KCAR 190112

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

912 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will slowly build east across the region through

Monday. Hurricane Teddy will approach from the southeast on

Tuesday, likely crossing Nova Scotia Tuesday night into

Wednesday......

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Tropical system Teddy is the main concern. Models have come into

much better agreement on Teddy`s track, with a track toward Nova

Scotia with likely hurricane force winds just south of Nova

Scotia as Teddy approaches Nova Scotia. The devil is in the

details however. A track toward eastern Nova Scotia and Cape

Breton would bring minimal if any impacts to Maine, while a

track to the western end of Nova Scotia would bring significant

impacts especially to Downeast. It`s simply too early to

pinpoint track exactly. Played it safe in the grids with likely

PoPs along the New Brunswick border and chance PoPs elsewhere,

and NW winds gusting 35 mph along the coast and 25 mph Northern

Maine. One interesting hazard is that the winds, where

unaccompanied by rain, could lead to a substantial fire risk.

Our forecast solution is close to NHC`s and a consensus

forecast, and would be a fairly minimal impact to us, but

again, any jog to the west could mean much higher impacts for

Maine. Quiet late Wed/Thu with high pressure, then the next

potential upper trough with a chance of rain comes in from the

west Thu night/Fri.

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NEAR TERM: Generally VFR overnight through Saturday. However,

variable conditions are possible overnight in any patchy valley

fog, but confidence was not high enough to include at any of the

Taf sites.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday Night through Monday...VFR with light north winds.

Monday Night through Wednesday...Potential impacts from tropical

system Teddy. At this time, believe that Teddy with pass east of

us with only peripheral impacts of perhaps MVFR toward the New

Brunswick border and winds gusting around 30 mph from the

northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into

Saturday morning. Conditions fall below small craft advisory

levels Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: North winds and seas could approach small craft

levels late Sat night into early Sun. Winds ease a bit late Sun

into Mon, but not much. Then winds and seas increase again with

Teddy Mon night and Tue. The winds and seas depend on Teddy`s

track which is headed toward Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force

winds are a realistic threat.

&&