Monday, July 05, 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa Pounds Cuba






















000
FXUS61 KCAR 060332
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1132 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest south of the region this evening. A
warm front will approach tonight and lift north through the area
Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday then
stall offshore on Thursday while low pressure approaches. Low
pressure will pass south of the area Friday and pull away from
the region Saturday.

&&.....

......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday night as
low pressure from the Great Lakes region moves northeastward
along the stalled frontal boundary. The associated upper level
shortwave will amplify and help pull in the remnants of Tropical
Storm Elsa northward towards eastern Maine. With deep moisture,
elevated instability and PWs over 1.75 inches, it`s certainly
possible most of the area could see an inch or two of rainfall
or more. The low pressure system will exit later Friday night.
Drier and seasonable cool air is expected for next weekend and
into Monday as cool Canadian high pressure builds. A blend of
models leads to increasing PoPs again by later Monday into
Monday night.....

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060250
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY 
TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near 
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the 
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn 
toward the north on Tuesday night.  A north-northeastward motion is 
expected on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Elsa will move across 
the Florida Straits tonight and pass near the Florida Keys early 
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the 
west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West and an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. 
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across 
the Cayman Islands tonight, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches 
with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is expected. This rain may 
lead to scattered flash flooding.    

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and 
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the 
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up 
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable 
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate 
river flooding. 

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low 
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum 
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in 
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern 
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches 
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated 
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight 
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto


812 
WTNT45 KNHC 060250
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface 
observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, 
having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. 
Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate 
values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent 
surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying 
just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured 
reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, 
the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past 
three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous 
track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving 
north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a 
deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to 
central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge 
over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then 
north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late 
Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a 
mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern 
United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly 
eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad 
east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, 
with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly 
reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida 
peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a 
small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has 
been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a 
condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in 
about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains 
similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 
kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC 
forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will 
be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the 
intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning 
is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the 
cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity 
forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight 
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa 
approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast 
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding 
possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.  Mid to late 
week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and 
southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban 
flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and  the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 23.5N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 24.9N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.9N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 31.6N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  08/1200Z 34.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/0000Z 36.9N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 43.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 50.5N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
816 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-070030-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
816 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with the main activity during
the afternoon. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall, with the main activity from the Maine Central
Highlands down into the Penobscot Valley and interior Downeast.

Remnants from Tropical Storm Elsa could bring heavy rain to the
region Thursday night through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

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