Hurricane Henri (Category One) Approaches Southern New England

939 

WTNT33 KNHC 220249

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Henri Advisory Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD

TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND...

...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING

RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES

BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...38.6N 71.0W

ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK

ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New

York

* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York

* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts

* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York

* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts

* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point

* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk

Point

* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts

* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut

* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East

Rockaway Inlet

* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including

Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket

* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to

Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the

progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located

near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving

toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected 

to continue through tonight.  A decrease in forward speed and a 

turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday.  On the

forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New

England or on Long Island on Sunday.  After landfall, a turn to the

north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over

southern New England.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Slight strengthening is possible tonight.

Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at

or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern

New England and Long island.  Rapid weakening is expected after

Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 

Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC

and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards

Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft

North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY

including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft

South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,

NY...3-5 ft

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,

NY...2-4 ft

Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts

Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late

tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical

storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6

inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New

York, and New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum

totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in

considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the

potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New

England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda

during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across

much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today

and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

WTNT43 KNHC 220249

TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it

was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has

formed  However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened

significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the

southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb.

Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at

18-20 kt during the past several hours.  However, the cyclone now

seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt.

There is no change to the forecast track philosophy.  A cut-off

low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to

the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move

generally northward tonight.  A turn toward the north-northwest and

a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring

the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between

18-24 h.  With the more eastward initial position, the forecast

track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.

However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as

several of the guidance models are to the left of the official

forecast.  After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and

turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the

average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts

will extend well away from the center.

Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be

moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next

several hours.  The intensity forecast will call for modest

strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that

strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters.

After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before

landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it

reaches southern New England.  Rapid weakening is expected after

landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in

about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late

tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode

Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning

has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice

given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or

Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,

where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions

will begin in these areas late tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small

stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to

isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New

England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast

of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause

life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 38.6N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 40.3N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 41.9N  71.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

 36H  23/1200Z 43.1N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 48H  24/0000Z 43.9N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  24/1200Z 44.4N  68.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 72H  25/0000Z 44.8N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220110

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

910 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds across the Maritimes into Sunday. Henri

will approach southern New England tonight and move onshore in

southern New England late Sunday. Henri will dissipate while it

tracks across our region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure

will build over the area Wednesday. Low pressure approaches the

area on Thursday......

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

By 00z Sunday, Hurricane Henri will be over southern New

England, slowing down in forward speed as it pushes further

inland. A plume of moisture out ahead of the system will lead to

humid conditions across our forecast area Sunday night into

Monday, with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs surging above 2

inches. All of this moisture will support showers ahead of

Henri, which will move into the Downeast region Sunday evening.

Patchy fog will be possible across the forecast area Sunday

night into early Monday morning due to the abundant moisture.

After stalling over southern New England, Henri will begin to

push eastward as the subtropical ridge strengthens on Monday. As

the weakened system begins to approach our region, showers will

increase in number from south to north across the forecast area.

Winds will remain relatively light through the day on Monday,

especially as a persistent marine layer reaching up to Dover-

Foxcroft and Lincoln will provide enough stability to keep

higher winds from mixing towards the surface.

What remains of Henri will pass to the south on Tuesday,

clearing off into the Canadian Maritimes. Showers will remain

across the forecast area as the low passes, with the highest

rainfall accumulations concentrated along the coast with up to

an additional inch possible.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Skies will finally clear Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the

lack of rain will not equate to a lack in moisture. A warm,

humid airmass will remain through mid-week. Lingering moisture

and diurnal heating will result in the chance for convective

showers, especially Thursday afternoon. It will take a cold

front Thursday night to clear the humidity and bring drier

conditions across the entire forecast area. This cold front will

be our next chance for widespread rain. Drier weather is

expected heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NEAR TERM:

VFR across the northern terminals to gradually drop back to MVFR

later tonight and then could go down to IFR by early morning on

Sunday. MVFR for KBGR/KBHB this evening dropping to IFR/LIFR

overnight with dense fog possible at times at KBHB through mid

morning Sunday. ESE wind < 10 kt.

For Sunday, IFR/MVFR for all terminals in the morning

w/improvement across the northern terminals

to VFR by mid morning. KBGR and KBHB will see a gradual

improvement to MVFR by late morning. ESE winds 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night - Tues...MVFR/IFR likely across southern terminals

with the approach of Hurricane Henri. Northern terminals will

fall to MVFR overnight Sunday night as showers move northwards.

Light SE winds will shift S to SW on Tuesday.

Tues night - Wed night...VFR across all terminals. Light W

winds.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM:

Seas are expected to gradually build for this term reaching 5-7

ft by Sunday afternoon w/12-14 second periods leading to large

swells. ESE winds increasing to 10-15 kt w/gusts 20-25 kt later

in the day over the outer zones. In collaboration with WFO Gray

have issued a SCA starting Sunday morning for the coastal marine

zones.

SHORT TERM: Seas will range from 6 to 8 feet late Sunday into

Mon morning before dropping below SCA levels Mon night. Remnants

of Hurricane Henri will cross the waters late Monday night into

Tuesday. Brief wind gusts approaching 25kts during the period.

Visibilities will be reduced in fog as humid air remains over

the water through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

High astronomical tides and TS Henri may bring minor coastal

flooding issues around the time of high tide Sunday night and

Monday night around midnight. Attm, given the latest setup,

some minor splash over is possible, but w/the long period

swells, and high surf, the risk of rip currents and big breakers

hitting the coast could be an issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for

     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Hewitt

Short Term...AStrauser

Long Term...AStrauser

Aviation...CB/Hewitt/AStrauser

Marine...CB/Hewitt/AStrauser

Tides/Coastal Flooding...Farrar/Hewitt/CB

8:33 PM ADT Saturday 21 August 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

FOR HURRICANE HENRI.

THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 03:00 A.M. ADT.

Hurricane Henri has its sight set on southern New England.

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 P.M. ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 37.3 NORTH 71.2 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 28 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 MILLIBARS.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS.

Hurricane Henri will begin to slow down this evening on its northward trek towards southern New England, where the worst conditions are expected. As it approaches Long Island, it will move over cooler water and begin to deteriorate gradually. Once it makes landfall in New England it is expected to weaken rapidly. The current forecast guidance continues to indicate that some remnant moisture from Henri will cross the southern Maritimes early in the new week.

The storm is unlikely to affect weather in the Maritimes until Monday, and at this stage it may simply bring light to moderate rainfall. No significant wind is expected over Maritimes land areas at this time.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS.

Long period swell up to 2 metres will develop along the South Shore of Nova Scotia on Sunday. Waves could potentially break higher along parts of the coast. Ocean waves of 3 to 5 metres are expected over marine regions south and west of Nova Scotia Sunday.

Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.

FORECASTER(S): CLEMENTS/COUTURIER/MERCER

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

842 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-230045-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

842 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North

Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards

to Henri`s track toward the New England region. Stay up to date on

the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$