TS Henri Takes Aim At Long Island

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WTNT33 KNHC 210259

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between

Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode

Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island

and Martha's Vineyard.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in

effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,

New Jersey, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New

York

* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York

* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts

* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York

* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts

* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point

* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk

Point

* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts

* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut

* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East

Rockaway Inlet

* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including

Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.

* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to

Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada

should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or

warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was

located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is

moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northward to 

north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a 

turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday 

night.  On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall

in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on

Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and 

Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday

and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long

Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and 

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards 

Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft 

North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY 

including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft 

South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, 

NY...3-5 ft 

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft 

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, 

NY...2-4 ft 

Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm 

conditions expected by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions are 

possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on 

Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area late Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6

inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with

isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri

may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,

along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate

river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda

during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across

much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and

into the weekend.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Beven

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized 

this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in 

the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding.  

There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow.  

However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter 

aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as 

the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the 

elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb 

range.  

Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8.  

A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio 

Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h, 

while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri.  

This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward 

for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from 

24-48 h.  This motion should bring the center of Henri over the 

mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h.  After 

48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the 

westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England 

and the Gulf of Maine.  There has been little change in the 

direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the 

guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h.  Thus, the new track 

forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than 

the previous forecast through the 48 h point.

A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and 

upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west 

should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the 

new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt.  After 

24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening 

should start before landfall in the northeastern United States.  

However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane 

intensity at landfall.  After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly 

and become post-tropical by the 72 h time.  Dissipation is forecast 

between 96-120 h.  The new intensity forecast follows the overall 

trend of the intensity guidance.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the

center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late 

Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, 

Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge 

Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible 

beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long 

Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area.  Residents in 

these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night 

or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a 

Hurricane Warning has been issued.  Hurricane conditions are 

possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode 

Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small 

stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and 

isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and 

New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast

of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause

life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 32.3N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  21/1200Z 34.3N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  22/0000Z 37.7N  72.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  22/1200Z 40.2N  72.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  23/0000Z 41.4N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 60H  23/1200Z 42.2N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 72H  24/0000Z 42.7N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  25/0000Z 43.5N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Beven

NNNN

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FXUS61 KCAR 210102

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

902 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build over the area overnight into Saturday

as Henri tracks north off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Henri will

approach southern New England Saturday night may come onshore in

southern New England Sunday or Sunday night. Henri will

dissipate as it tracks across our region Monday into Monday

night. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday into

Wednesday....

......SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Our focus this weekend will be on the track and intensity of Henri

which will likely be off the Mid-Atlantic coast as a hurricane and

slowly tracking north toward southeastern New England Saturday

evening. The system will be guided north by a combination of a weak

upper trough digging from the Appalachians down toward the

southeastern states and a subtropical ridge poised to our east. We

will remain in a warm and humid air mass under an upper ridge

Saturday evening with a clear to partly cloudy sky over the north

and a mostly cloudy sky Downeast. Henri is expected to come onshore

in southern New England Sunday evening and from there slow down and

begin to weaken. The 11 AM forecast track from the National

Hurricane Center brings the storm onshore along the Connecticut/

Rhode Island border Sunday evening. Latest guidance this afternoon

suggests the track may trend a bit further west. Some initial bands

of moisture lifting north ahead of Henri could bring a few showers

Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, surface high pressure east of

the area will bring a partly to mostly cloudy and humid day on

Sunday. Henri will likely be slowly migrating north through central

New England Sunday night as it dissipates. Steering currents will be

weak, and as a result any subtle variations in the upper level

pressure gradients could significantly change the track that Henri

or its remnants take from there. High surf from Henri will likely

impact the Downeast coast late Sunday into Sunday night. Otherwise,

Sunday night will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered

showers ahead of the system, mostly Downeast. The remnants of Henri

may slowly curve northeast into western Maine on Monday possibly

bringing some showers across the area, mostly over central

parts of the region, and breezy conditons Downeast mainly over

coastal Hancock County. However, if the track does continue to

trend further west the system will end up very weakened by the

time it gets up into Maine which would minimize its impacts......

8:59 AM ADT Friday 20 August 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Tropical Storm Henri.

FOR TROPICAL STORM HENRI.

THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 09:00 A.M. ADT SATURDAY.

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 A.M. ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 30.3 NORTH 73.3 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 MILLIBARS.

2. SUMMARY.

Henri is forecast to accelerate northward this weekend and strengthen to hurricane status. There's still a possibility it could strengthen to category-2 status quite far north while east of Virginia. Henri is then expected to actually slow down as it nears Cape Cod. Also once it moves over colder water it will weaken at a particularly fast pace then move slowly east or northeastward across Nova Scotia or just south. The Hurricane Edouard (1996) scenario mentioned in yesterday's bulletin is looking less likely at this point.

The storm won't likely affect our weather directly until Monday or Tuesday and at this stage appears that it may simply bring light to moderate wind and some rain. Larger than normal surf conditions will develop on the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia this weekend. Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.

FORECASTER(S): HATT / FOGARTY

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE

CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA

END/ASPC

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

427 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-212030-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

427 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of

the Longfellow Mountains into Baxter State Park region. Any of the

storms will be slow-moving, which could pose a threat for torrential

downpours.

For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards

to Henri`s track toward the New England region. The main threat now

appears be significant swell and potential high surf along the

shoreline. Stay up to date on the latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$