Potential Major Winter Storm On The Way? Update One

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FXUS61 KCAR 251443

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

943 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A small area of low pressure will track across the region today.

High pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday and crest

over the area early Thursday. Low pressure will develop off the

southeast coast on Friday and intensify as it tracks north toward

our region on Saturday.....

.....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Our focus Friday into the start of the weekend will be on a

significant and potentially major winter storm heading our way. The

cold front over our region on Friday will slowly press across the

area stalling just off the coast at the end of the day. Meanwhile, a

southern branch shortwave will be crossing the Gulf coast states on

Friday initiating cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. This will

occur at the same time a vigorous mid latitude shortwave cascading

over a highly amplified full latitude ridge-to-trough longwave dives

southeast through the upper Midwest. The northern branch wave will

cross the Appalachians and engage the southern branch wave

Friday night leading to rapid cyclogenesis, potentially

"bombogenesis", off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The intensifying low

center is destined to track from there up toward the Gulf of

Maine on Saturday spreading heavy snow and wind across our area.

Here`s a look at the current model projections for this storm:

The GFS carries the low from a position off the Mid Atlantic

coast Saturday morning to a little over a hundred miles east of

Cape Cod early Saturday afternoon then on across the Gulf of

Maine toward the mouth of the Bay of Fundy Saturday evening.

This favors all snow across the area except maybe some rain

mixing in along coastal Washington County. The ECMWF is a bit

slower and initially further west with its track taking the low

center near Cape Cod early Saturday evening, then from there

tracking the low northeast into the mouth of the Bay of Fundy

by early Sunday morning. The new Canadian model is a little

further east and slower carrying the low center across western

Nova Scotia Sunday morning. All three of these operational

models favor heavy snow over our area but the Canadian may

confine the heaviest snow to central and eastern parts of our

region. The NBM mean track takes the low over eastern Washington

County bringing heavy snow to all areas with a possible change

to rain over southern Washington County. Snow and blowing snow

should taper off Sunday morning as the low center begins to

occlude and lift away through the northern Maritimes. Weak high

pressure will follow bringing light winds and a chilly day on

Monday......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

337 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-260845-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Southern Piscataquis-

337 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot

Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A high impact winter storm may affect the region this weekend

potentially bringing significant snowfall and windy conditions to

northern and Downeast Maine.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$