Potentially Historic Winter Storm Update One?

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FXUS61 KCAR 130249

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

949 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will slowly approach from Quebec through Thursday

then cross the area Thursday night through early Friday. Strong

low pressure will track east of the region later Friday through

Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. Low

pressure will impact the region Monday, though the track remains

uncertain.

&&.....

.....SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

An arctic cold front will cross the region Thursday night through

early Friday with snow showers along the front. The front will exit

across the Maritimes early Friday while an intensifying ocean low

tracks north along the front. The low will track southeast of the

Gulf of Maine toward the eastern Maritimes later Friday through

Friday night, though the exact track is still uncertain. A more

western track could allow the western edge of the snow shield to

back across Downeast areas, particularly Washington county with

accumulating snow expected along with blowing and drifting snow. A

more eastern track would diminish potential impacts and snow

accumulations. Acoss northern areas Friday, expect mostly cloudy

skies along with a chance of snow showers in the morning then partly

sunny with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Gusty

north/northwest winds will also develop later Friday with the

tightening pressure gradient between the intensifying Maritimes low

and high pressure centered north of the Great lakes. The strong low

lifts across the eastern Maritimes Friday night, with high pressure

centered across the northern Great Lakes. Any snow should diminish

across Downeast areas early Friday night, with decreasing clouds

overnight. Could have a slight chance of snow showers across

northern areas early Friday night, with decreasing clouds overnight.

The strong low will lift across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Saturday

while high pressure builds toward New England. The tight pressure

gradient between the Maritimes low and high pressure to the west

will keep gusty north/northwest winds across the region Saturday.

With the very cold temperatures and gusty winds, expect wind chills

will be a concern Friday night through Saturday with wind chill

warnings/advisories needed. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny

skies Saturday. Temperatures will fall through Friday in the

wake of the cold front. High temperatures Saturday are expected

to only range from the single digits below zero north, to the

single digits above zero Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure will build toward the region Saturday night with

mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. High pressure will cross

the region Sunday while low pressure intensifies across the

Mid-Atlantic region. Expect mostly sunny skies Sunday, with

increasing clouds Sunday night. Could also have a chance of snow

later Sunday night mostly Downeast. The intensifying low will

lift north Monday, though significant differences in the track

still exist. Track solutions vary from well west of the region,

to across the region, to offshore east of the region.

Precipitation types and amounts, along with temperatures,

Monday will be dependent on the eventual track. The low will

exit northeast of the region Tuesday, with precipitation

diminishing. High pressure should build across the region later

Tuesday through early Wednesday. A clipper system could then

bring another chance of snow or snow showers later Wednesday.

Temperatures will be at much below normal levels Sunday.

Temperatures Monday/Tuesday will be dependent on the eventual

track of low pressure. Below normal level temperatures are

expected Wednesday......