Winter Storm Quinlan Update One

000

FXUS61 KCAR 110216

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

916 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will cross the region overnight. Weak low

pressure will cross the region later Friday. A stronger

intensifying low will lift across the region Saturday then exit

across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will cross the region

Monday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.....

....Previous discussion:

High pressure will cross the region tonight, while a slow

moving frontal boundary approaches the Saint Lawrence River

Valley. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the

region early tonight with clouds then increasing overnight. High

pressure exits across the Maritimes Friday, while the frontal

boundary remains nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Saint

Lawrence Valley. Expect mostly cloudy skies across the region

Friday. The frontal boundary should help focus an area of light

snow across mostly northern areas Friday afternoon. Any snow

accumulations Friday afternoon are expected to be less than an

inch. Low temperatures tonight will range through the teens

north, to the lower to mid 20s interior Downeast with mid to

upper 20s along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Friday

will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to around 40 to the

lower 40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The large low pressure system will move NE towards the Mid

Atlantic states Friday night. Moisture with the leading boundary

will bring light snow showers across the west and north before

midnight. By early Saturday morning, the low will make its

way into New England, pushing the precip further south covering

the entire region. 12Z model guidance has several changes from

the previous forecast. To begin, the Euro has slowed down the

progression of the storm and pushed the track further south out

over the waters. In addition, the QPF amounts were drastically

decreased. The Canadian has sped up the progression of the

storm, bringing the QPF into the region slightly earlier. The

GFS model has remained consistent with the track and QPF

amounts. WPC guidance has started to trend QPF lower as well as

snow totals, so decided to follow this guidance. Another change

for all models were the temperatures are trending colder across

the region, bringing the rain/snow line further south. This also

changed the snow ratios slightly. Upper air model soundings

still indicate a low moist dendritic growth zone. This coupled

with warm airmass will create fairly heavy, wet snow across the

areas that will receive the most amount of snowfall. As temps

warm in the afternoon, the rain/snow line will advance

northward. This will mean the majority of the storm will produce

rain in the south. With the higher QPF amounts, there is a

concern for ice movement in area rivers and streams and further

flooding with the rains and any snowmelt.

By Saturday evening and into Saturday night, the low will start

to exit to the NNE, wrapping cold air behind it. Any lingering

precip should change to snow and start to taper off by early

Sunday morning. As the low starts to exit and the ridge starts

to approach, the pressure gradients behind the system will start

to tighten. This will produce some very gusty winds Saturday

evening and increase through Saturday night. For regions that

just experienced heavy snowfall, blowing snow is expected all

the way through to Sunday.

For Sunday, a weak ridge will move in, helping clear out skies

in the afternoon. Gusty NW winds will continue throughout the

day. Expect temps below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The weak ridge will settle over the region Sunday night into

Monday. Sunday night will be fairly cold with the lingering cold

airmass. By Monday, the SW flow will help increase temps near

normal for the season. A cold front will approach Monday evening

and cross the region on Tuesday. Could be a chance of snow or

rain showers with the passage of the front on Tuesday. The rest

of the week should be fairly calm with possible precip Thursday

night.....