Major Hurricane Fiona (Category 3) A Long-range Threat To The Region Update One

000

WTNT32 KNHC 210247

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.2N 71.8W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND

ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings for the

Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this

system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located

near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving

toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This general motion is 

expected to continue through Wednesday.  A turn toward the 

north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by 

Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue 

to move away from the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday, and 

approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 

maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast during the 

next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible 

Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA 

reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header

WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the

southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands overnight.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or

early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm

Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10

inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast

of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern

and central Bahamas.  These swells will continue to spread westward

across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas

and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.

Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.

The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

286 

WTNT42 KNHC 210247

TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been 

investigating Fiona this evening show that the hurricane has 

strengthened since this afternoon.  The aircraft has measured peak 

700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt, and SFMR winds of around 110 kt 

earlier in the evening. Based on those data, the intensity was 

increased to 110 kt on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC.  Since 

that time, the satellite presentation has continued to improve with 

the eye becoming better defined and the surrounding ring of deep 

convection expanding with colder cloud top temperatures. The 

pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb, 

however the plane has not found any higher winds during several 

passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall. 

It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective 

satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a 

case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite 

presentation, which is not too uncommon. 

The vertical wind shear over the hurricane is expected to remain low 

to moderate during the next couple of days.  During that time, the 

hurricane will be traversing SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius, and 

remain in a moist environment.  These conditions should allow for 

some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but 

after that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are 

likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity.  By day 3, the 

system is forecast to interact with a vigorous mid-troposphere 

trough and the system is expected to become a large and powerful 

extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The latest satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane 

is now moving just west of due north or 350/7 kt. Fiona should move 

generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level 

ridge during the next 24 hours.  After that time, the hurricane is 

forecast to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually 

accelerate as the aforementioned trough approaches from the 

northwest. Very little cross-track changes were made to the latest 

NHC forecast, but it is slightly slower than the previous advisory 

to be in better agreement with the bulk of the dynamical models. 

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and 

Caicos through tonight with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late

Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a

powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could

produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy

rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the

progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 23.2N  71.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  21/1200Z 24.3N  71.9W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  22/0000Z 26.0N  71.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  22/1200Z 28.1N  70.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  23/0000Z 30.8N  69.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

 60H  23/1200Z 34.3N  65.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

 72H  24/0000Z 39.5N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  25/0000Z 48.3N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  26/0000Z 55.4N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Brown

000

FXUS61 KCAR 210226

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1026 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move across the Canadian Maritimes through

Wednesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday night, then will

cross the region Thursday. Low pres will intensify across the

Maritimes Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure will

briefly return on Sunday.....

.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A strong cold front will cross our area Wednesday night into the

day on Thursday. This front will bring rain across the entire

forecast area late Wednesday night through Thursday morning,

with showers lingering behind the surface boundary Thursday

afternoon. Guidance is in good agreement on the timing of the

frontal passage.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to work its way into

northern New England Thursday night into Friday. At the same

time, the storm which is currently Hurricane Fiona is projected

to push into the Canadian Maritimes from the south. Though the

storm is not expected to have any direct impacts on our area,

the increased pressure gradient between this strong area of low

pressure to the east and the building region of high pressure to

the west will lead to gusty winds beginning on Friday. There

remains a slight chance for rain showers across the North Woods

on Friday due to upslope flow on the backside of the recent low

pressure. Temperatures on Friday will also be much cooler, with

high temps only in the 50s across much of the forecast area, and

cooler valleys of the North Woods will have the potential to not

even warm out of the 40s. Combined with gusty winds, a breezy

and cool day is expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Cold air advection will continue Friday night as gusty NW winds

remain through the night. Though winds combined with overcast

skies will prevent radiational cooling, cold air advection will

be strong enough to knock low temperatures Friday night into the

upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.

Gusty winds are expected to peak through the day on Saturday.

The strength of these winds will depend on the pressure gradient

aloft and the depth of the mixed layer. The pressure gradient

aloft will depend on the proximity of the strengthening low over

the Canadian Maritimes, and any westward/eastward wobbles in the

track of this low could lead higher/lower winds.

High pressure will continue to build over the area through the

end of the weekend, and the strong low pressure to the east will

begin to drift further off into the Northern Atlantic.

Temperatures will begin to rebound to near seasonal averages

through the day on Sunday. The next low pressure system will

approach from the west on Monday, bringing the next chance for

rain showers in our forecast area......

8:53 PM ADT Tuesday 20 September 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula

Bathurst and Chaleur Region

Kent County

Kouchibouguac National Park

Miramichi and area

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle

Newfoundland

Norman Bay to Lodge Bay

Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair

Nova Scotia:

Annapolis County

Antigonish County

Colchester County - Cobequid Bay

Colchester County - Truro and south

Colchester County North

Cumberland County - Minas Shore

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

Guysborough County

Halifax County - east of Porters Lake

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Hants County

Inverness County - Mabou and north

Inverness County - south of Mabou

Kings County

Lunenburg County

Pictou County

Queens County

Richmond County

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Victoria County

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti

Blanc-Sablon

Chevery

Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé

Grande-Vallée area

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Minganie

Murdochville area

Natashquan

New Carlisle - Chandler

New Richmond - Bonaventure area

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 a.m. ADT Wednesday.

Hurricane Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada land areas Saturday and southern offshore areas Friday.

This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall).

Currently the range of uncertainty with regard to the centre of the low when it approaches late Friday or Saturday is approximately a 600 to 700 kilometre wide zone ("cone of uncertainty") centered near eastern Cape Breton with a broad coverage of hurricane-force winds including over land. This is the most likely scenario as we see it now, regardless of meteorological classification of 'Hurricane', or 'Post-Tropical Storm' Fiona at that time.

Since we expect the storm to become very large, the impacts will be multi-provincial. Specifics in terms of winds, rainfall, waves and storm surge will be described in increasing detail here beginning Wednesday.

Again, this storm certainly has the potential to be quite severe - we suggest to check forecast updates at least daily for important information regarding the trend in our analysis of what to expect.

Forecaster: Fogarty.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.