Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Major Hurricane Fiona (Category 3) A Long-range Threat To The Region Update One











































000
WTNT32 KNHC 210247
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings for the
Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This general motion is 
expected to continue through Wednesday.  A turn toward the 
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by 
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue 
to move away from the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday, and 
approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast during the 
next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible 
Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands overnight.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas.  These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


286 
WTNT42 KNHC 210247
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been 
investigating Fiona this evening show that the hurricane has 
strengthened since this afternoon.  The aircraft has measured peak 
700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt, and SFMR winds of around 110 kt 
earlier in the evening. Based on those data, the intensity was 
increased to 110 kt on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC.  Since 
that time, the satellite presentation has continued to improve with 
the eye becoming better defined and the surrounding ring of deep 
convection expanding with colder cloud top temperatures. The 
pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb, 
however the plane has not found any higher winds during several 
passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall. 
It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective 
satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a 
case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite 
presentation, which is not too uncommon. 

The vertical wind shear over the hurricane is expected to remain low 
to moderate during the next couple of days.  During that time, the 
hurricane will be traversing SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius, and 
remain in a moist environment.  These conditions should allow for 
some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but 
after that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are 
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity.  By day 3, the 
system is forecast to interact with a vigorous mid-troposphere 
trough and the system is expected to become a large and powerful 
extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The latest satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane 
is now moving just west of due north or 350/7 kt. Fiona should move 
generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level 
ridge during the next 24 hours.  After that time, the hurricane is 
forecast to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually 
accelerate as the aforementioned trough approaches from the 
northwest. Very little cross-track changes were made to the latest 
NHC forecast, but it is slightly slower than the previous advisory 
to be in better agreement with the bulk of the dynamical models. 

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and 
Caicos through tonight with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 23.2N  71.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 24.3N  71.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 26.0N  71.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 28.1N  70.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 30.8N  69.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 34.3N  65.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 39.5N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 48.3N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0000Z 55.4N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
FXUS61 KCAR 210226
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1026 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across the Canadian Maritimes through
Wednesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday night, then will
cross the region Thursday. Low pres will intensify across the
Maritimes Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure will
briefly return on Sunday.....

.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front will cross our area Wednesday night into the
day on Thursday. This front will bring rain across the entire
forecast area late Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
with showers lingering behind the surface boundary Thursday
afternoon. Guidance is in good agreement on the timing of the
frontal passage.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to work its way into
northern New England Thursday night into Friday. At the same
time, the storm which is currently Hurricane Fiona is projected
to push into the Canadian Maritimes from the south. Though the
storm is not expected to have any direct impacts on our area,
the increased pressure gradient between this strong area of low
pressure to the east and the building region of high pressure to
the west will lead to gusty winds beginning on Friday. There
remains a slight chance for rain showers across the North Woods
on Friday due to upslope flow on the backside of the recent low
pressure. Temperatures on Friday will also be much cooler, with
high temps only in the 50s across much of the forecast area, and
cooler valleys of the North Woods will have the potential to not
even warm out of the 40s. Combined with gusty winds, a breezy
and cool day is expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold air advection will continue Friday night as gusty NW winds
remain through the night. Though winds combined with overcast
skies will prevent radiational cooling, cold air advection will
be strong enough to knock low temperatures Friday night into the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.

Gusty winds are expected to peak through the day on Saturday.
The strength of these winds will depend on the pressure gradient
aloft and the depth of the mixed layer. The pressure gradient
aloft will depend on the proximity of the strengthening low over
the Canadian Maritimes, and any westward/eastward wobbles in the
track of this low could lead higher/lower winds.

High pressure will continue to build over the area through the
end of the weekend, and the strong low pressure to the east will
begin to drift further off into the Northern Atlantic.
Temperatures will begin to rebound to near seasonal averages
through the day on Sunday. The next low pressure system will
approach from the west on Monday, bringing the next chance for
rain showers in our forecast area......


8:53 PM ADT Tuesday 20 September 2022
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Bathurst and Chaleur Region
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia:

Annapolis County
Antigonish County
Colchester County - Cobequid Bay
Colchester County - Truro and south
Colchester County North
Cumberland County - Minas Shore
Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass
Guysborough County
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Hants County
Inverness County - Mabou and north
Inverness County - south of Mabou
Kings County
Lunenburg County
Pictou County
Queens County
Richmond County
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
Victoria County
Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé
Grande-Vallée area
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Minganie
Murdochville area
Natashquan
New Carlisle - Chandler
New Richmond - Bonaventure area
The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 a.m. ADT Wednesday.

Hurricane Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada land areas Saturday and southern offshore areas Friday.

This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall).

Currently the range of uncertainty with regard to the centre of the low when it approaches late Friday or Saturday is approximately a 600 to 700 kilometre wide zone ("cone of uncertainty") centered near eastern Cape Breton with a broad coverage of hurricane-force winds including over land. This is the most likely scenario as we see it now, regardless of meteorological classification of 'Hurricane', or 'Post-Tropical Storm' Fiona at that time.

Since we expect the storm to become very large, the impacts will be multi-provincial. Specifics in terms of winds, rainfall, waves and storm surge will be described in increasing detail here beginning Wednesday.

Again, this storm certainly has the potential to be quite severe - we suggest to check forecast updates at least daily for important information regarding the trend in our analysis of what to expect.

Forecaster: Fogarty.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

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