Mid-December Eastern Maritimes Nor'Easter

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FXUS61 KCAR 130418

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1118 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will develop well east of the waters tonight into

Tuesday and back west into the Maritimes on Wednesday. High

pressure returns on Thursday. Another low pressure will

approach from the southwest later Friday into Saturday.....

......previous discussion

Upr low continues to drop south out of Labrador this afternoon

with main sfc low just to the north of the Gaspe Peninsula over

the western end of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Low stratocu is

currently heading south twd the FA and will likely enter the St.

John Vly over the next couple of hours and head south

overnight. Cannot rule out isold snow showers or flurries

tonight as it approaches after 09z tonight. Temps wl drop under

clear skies and then become steady or possibly slightly rise

across the north under mostly cloudy conditions.

Upr low drops thru the FA on Tuesday with isolated to scattered snow

showers accompanying it thru. Surface trough will be sliding through

drg the afternoon with potential for snow squalls as it does so.

Moisture does not appear to be as prevalent as it did yesterday but

parameters are certainly there for squall potential. Even if snow

squalls do not occur there will still be plenty of wind during the

afternoon tomorrow. Temps wl remain below normal for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A surface low deepening over the Canadian Maritimes will

approach the region from the east, bringing mid-level moisture

and instability into our forecast area and leading to the next

chance for accumulating snow. Due to shallow moisture contained

below around 800 mb, snowfall will be showery in nature, though

showers will be numerous across the forecast area. Small

amounts of CAPE with the backdoor front will also aid in

developing convective snow showers through Tuesday night into

early Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulation will remain

minimal, with 1 to 3 inches at most, depending on where showers

and bands set up. As the low pressure continues to strengthen,

even as it moves off into Nova Scotia, the pressure gradient

between it and the high pressure to the north will tighten,

leading to gusty winds through Tuesday night into Wednesday

morning. These higher winds, in addition to recently fallen

snow, will lead to patchy blowing snow which may reduce

visibility through early Wednesday morning.

Lingering mid-level moisture Wednesday night and northeast flow

will lead to lingering flurries or snow showers across the

north. There will not be enough upper level moisture to support

accumulating snowfall Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Northeast flow on Thursday will continue to advect in air from

the Canadian Maritimes, leading to mild temperatures which are

above average for this time of the year. High temperatures will

range from the mid 30s up north to around 40 Downeast on

Thursday.......

8:51 PM AST Monday 12 December 2022

Wind warning in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: northwest 80 to 100 km/h.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Similar storms in the past have resulted in hazardous driving conditions and toppling of high sided vehicles.

Utility outages may occur.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

8:50 PM AST Monday 12 December 2022

Winter storm warning in effect for:

Acadian Peninsula

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall: 20 cm, possibly higher.

Maximum wind gusts: 90 km/h, except 120 km/h for Acadian Peninsula.

Locations: northeastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning.

Remarks: Snow is expected to begin Tuesday afternoon and become heavy by Tuesday evening. Strong northeasterly winds are forecast early Wednesday morning.

Coastal regions along the Bay of Chaleur are expected to see a transition to rain early Wednesday morning.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

8:44 PM AST Monday 12 December 2022

Winter storm warning in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall: 20 to 40 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: 90 to 120 km/h.

Locations: eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Island.

Time span: tonight until Tuesday evening.

Remarks: Snow is expected to begin this evening and become heavy by Tuesday morning. Strong winds are forecast to accompany the snow, potentially reducing visibility further in blowing snow on Tuesday.

For Cape Breton, a transition to rain is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Given the preceding snow, the rainfall could cause some flooding.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

8:39 PM AST Monday 12 December 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

Potentially higher than normal water levels and pounding surf expected.

Locations: Northumberland Strait.

Time span: high tide Tuesday evening.

Remarks: Low pressure combined with strong winds will cause higher than normal water levels and pounding surf near high tide for north to west facing coastlines.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

8:28 PM AST Monday 12 December 2022

Winter storm watch in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Significant snowfall is expected.

Total snowfall: 15 cm or more.

Maximum wind gusts: 70 km/h or more.

Location: southeastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.

Remarks: Snow is expected to begin Tuesday evening and become heavy, at times, overnight. Strong northerly to westerly winds in conjunction with falling snow may result in poor visibility in blowing snow. There remains some discrepancy in timing and exact track of the system which could lead to changes in snowfall amounts.

Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays.

Winter storm watches are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

325 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-132030-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

325 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Snow squalls are possible Tuesday afternoon leading to hazardous

driving conditions. Strong northerly wind gusts are expected on

Wednesday, possibly resulting in scattered power outage. Strong wind

gusts on Wednesday will be accompanied by accumulating snowfall,

leading to patchy blowing snow across the north and east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$