Potentially Destructive Winter Storm Elliott Forms In Western North America

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FXUS61 KCAR 210259

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

959 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build across the region tonight into

Thursday. Strong low pressure in the Midwest will draw an

occluded front across the region Friday night into Saturday

while the low tracks well northwest across Quebec province.....

.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

     Significant Storm Bringing Rain & Damaging Winds Friday...

High pressure will be in control during the day on Thursday with

temperatures near normal. High pressure will shove east by Thu

evening with upr ridge cresting over the CWA.

By 00z Friday, models in good agreement on strong upr low dropping

south from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. At the sfc,

lopres will be located over the western Great Lakes and pushing

east. Precip will begin entering FA toward midnight. At the onset,

most areas will see light snow with temperatures over the north in

the upper teens and in the m/u 20s over Downeast. H8 temps will be

increasing during the overnight as 30kt srly LLJ draws in warm air.

As warm air aloft moves north, snow will very slowly mix with

freezing ran thru daybreak but will likely remain south of the

central areas.

Dry air from strong high pressure will keep northeastern areas dry

into mid-morning with mostly virga falling before column saturates.

Pesky rain, freezing rain and snow line will very slowly move to the

north of I-95 after about 18z but cannot rule out an extended period

of frzg rain in the afternoon. Situation looks favorable for cold

air damming over eastern areas during the day with a glaze of ice

expected over all but interior Downeast areas as it moves through.

Snowfall accums on Friday will range from 1-3 inches over

northwestern areas with less than 1/2 inch elsewhere.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible over Downeast and into portions

of the Central Highlands on Friday. Temperatures will increase thru

00z and possibly rise into the lower 50s over Downeast before

occlusion approaches during the evening. Dewpoints also bump up into

the l/m 40s late in the afternoon and with locally heavy rain and

strong winds, expect any snow that is on the ground will be lost.

Fairly warm snow temperatures in these area will not take much to

begin melting the snow. This may lead to flash flooding on Friday,

especially in the Piscataquis River basin.

In addition to the heavy rain, mixed precip and flooding, east-

southeasterly winds will be damaging beginning mid-late morning on

Friday and continuing throughout the day. Cannot rule out wind gust

to near 60 mph over the entire area, with 65-70 mph possible along

the coast. This will likely result in widespread power outages.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Significant Storm Bringing Rain & Damaging Winds Friday Night...

Surface low located to the north of the eastern Great Lakes with

occlusion in vicinity of NH/Maine border by 00z Sat. Strong and

damaging winds continue through midnight Fri night before occlusion

passes and they begin to gradually diminish, though gusts to 40 mph

likely to continue across the north and near 50 mph along the coast

until closer to daybreak.

Heavy rain will continue during the nighttime hours with the

heaviest rainfall located over the north and east as front moves

through.

In the wake of the boundary, surface temperatures will drop

tremendously fast. On the order of approximately 20 degrees between

06z-12z. Any water left lingering on the road from the heavy

rainfall, snowmelt and/or a combination there of will instantly

freeze and create very hazardous travel on Saturday. Temps on

Saturday will remain well below freezing.

Upper low lifts north twd James Bay with lingering light snow

showers on Saturday. Temps on Christmas Day and into early next week

will be near to below normal.......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

334 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

MEZ001>006-010-212045-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-

334 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine and North Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

On Friday, a strong low pressure system passing to our west will

bring significant winds and precipitation into early Saturday AM. An

extended period of snow and/or wintry mix may result in slick travel

through sunset Friday. The wintry mix will change to rain and rain

will be heavy at times during the evening. Rainfall and snowmelt

will

result in significant runoff and potential flooding of area creeks,

streams and main stem rivers. In addition the potential exists for

strong to damaging winds that will cause impacts.

Saturday AM the potential exists for a flash freeze that may cause

slick travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

4:02 PM AST Tuesday 20 December 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

An intense trough of low pressure will move into the Maritimes on Friday evening and affect the region into Saturday.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Friday evening into Saturday.

Remarks: A developing storm will affect the Maritime Provinces this upcoming holiday weekend. While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of rain which may also impact travel. Utility outages are possible with this system.

Storm surge and a run of spring tides have the potential to produce higher than normal water levels near the high tide on Saturday.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.....

4:02 PM AST Tuesday 20 December 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

An intense trough of low pressure will move into the Maritimes on Friday evening and affect the region into Saturday.

Locations: Nova Scotia

Time span: Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Remarks: A developing storm will affect the Maritime Provinces this upcoming holiday weekend. While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of rain which may also impact travel. Utility outages are possible with this system.

Very large waves, storm surge and a run of spring tides have the potential to produce warning level storm surge and rough and pounding surf for Friday into Saturday.

Locations: South facing shorelines of the Atlantic Coast of Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Island.

Time Span: Late Friday into Saturday. The main threat will be near the high tides on Saturday.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

3:59 PM AST Tuesday 20 December 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

An intense trough of low pressure will move into the Maritimes on Friday evening and affect the region into Saturday.

Locations: New Brunswick

Time span: Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Remarks: A developing storm will affect the Maritime Provinces this upcoming holiday weekend. While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of rain over southern New Brunswick, with snow and freezing rain followed by rain over Central and Northern New Brunswick. This system may impact travel and utility outages are possible.

Large waves, high winds and storm surge may give significant storm surge and some rough and pounding surf to exposed parts of the Bay of chaleur.

Locations: The southern Bay of Chaleur and the Acadian Peninsula.

Time Span: Late Friday into Saturday. The highest threat will be for Saturday afternoon.

Coastal erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure is possible.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.