Winter Storm Jimenez Update One

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220007

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

707 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build across the region tonight, then begin

to exit across the Maritimes later Sunday. Low pressure will

cross the region Monday, then exit across the Maritimes Tuesday

with high pressure building in for Wednesday. Low pressure will

approach Wednesday night, then cross the region Thursday.....

.....Previous Discussion...

Skies will cloud up during the day Sunday as a coastal low

pressure system approaches from the southwest. The vast majority

of Sunday will be dry, but a couple of snowflakes may reach

western areas towards sunset. Hence, put a slight chance of PoPs

in the forecast very late in the afternoon in the west.

Regardless, no accumulation is forecast for the daytime hours on

Sunday. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s in the North

and Central Highlands, with 30s near Bangor and Downeast. Winds

will be out of the southwest at around 5-10 mph during the day

Sunday, though some gusts approaching 20mph are possible near

the coast late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Sunday Night and Monday...

Decent winter storm on track. Definitely seeing a south/weaker/faster

trend in the models and ensembles, and have tweaked forecast

accordingly, lowering snow amounts some in the north and

extending the axis of heavier snow just a bit further south over

Downeast. We are looking at a surface low tracking NE from the

Mid-Atlantic to just SE of Cape Cod to Nova Scotia Sunday night

and Monday. It will be strengthening some as it tracks NE. Look

for precipitation to develop from SW to NE Sunday night. It will

be a quick system, with precip tapering off from NW to SE

during the day Monday. Still a lot of uncertainty on how far

north the northern edge of snow gets, plus where the rain/snow

line sets up, but as mentioned, the trend has definitely been

south. Right now, it looks like the rain/snow line will be just

inland, with the heaviest snow from Bangor/Lincoln east toward

Topsfield, with about 50 miles of N/S uncertainty. With the

south trend, far Northern Maine is looking for less snow, with

probably under 4 inches once you get north of Mars Hill. Still

looking for some blowing snow as winds pick up Monday, but not

looking too bad as winds are only just barely strong enough for

blowing, plus the snow will somewhat wet in consistency with

snow ratios in the neighborhood of 10:1 in the area of heaviest

snowfall. Let the existing watches ride, and expanded watch

south to zone 16 and 17, as snow amounts have been increased

there, consistent with the southward trend in the models.

Monday Night and Tuesday...

System kicks out Monday evening, though could be some blowing

snow still in the evening, mainly Interior Downeast. Air behind

the system is a little cooler, with lows in the mid teens north

and low to mid 20s Downeast. Tuesday looks fairly mild ahead of

an approaching Arctic front. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Could be some snow showers in the afternoon in the north, and

perhaps snow squalls with the Arctic frontal passage roughly

early Tuesday evening. Accumulations look very small.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Quite cold with temperatures about 10 degrees below average,

and dry once any evening snow squalls (mentioned above)

dissipate Tuesday evening.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...

Next low pressure system Wednesday night/Thursday looking a bit

stronger than the Sunday night/Monday storm, and likely taking

a bit of a more northerly track. Models are in reasonable

agreement for it being so far out, with the likelihood of over a

half inch of precip and perhaps over an inch. The general

consensus low track will bring pretty good winds areawide, and

a transition to rain Downeast, with mostly snow in the north.

Some models/ensembles, however, bring a changeover to rain even

in the north. Way too early to know for sure, but potential is

there for a significant storm.

Thursday Night Onward...

More model uncertainty late in the week. Generally speaking,

looks like an active pattern continues along with a strong

temperature gradient over the region.......