Monday, August 21, 2023

Tropical Storm Franklin A Potential Long-Range Threat







































651 
WTNT33 KNHC 220251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 70.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was 
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 70.2 West. Franklin is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Franklin has 
been meandering in the eastern Caribbean tonight. Franklin should 
turn northward on Tuesday with this general motion continuing into 
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is forecast 
to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola by on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Across portions of Hispaniola,
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up
to 15 inches, are expected. Significant and potentially 
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday 
across Hispaniola.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday night into Wednesday and are possible
within the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake


584 
WTNT43 KNHC 220252
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A 
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening 
and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible 
multiple surface centers.  Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on 
satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the 
storm, near the mid-level center.  The initial intensity will 
remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher 
TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates.  A NOAA G-IV mission should 
hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight.

The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for 
much of the day.  There is the potential that the center may try to 
reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the 
mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution.  Eventually,  
mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should 
allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and 
then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is 
shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a 
little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of 
the center to the northeast.

Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear, which is disrupting the cyclone's organization. SHIPS 
guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next 
12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it 
reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there 
will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After 
Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the 
forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast, 
then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence 
given all the different environmental factors and land interaction, 
but lies near the corrected consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy 
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as 
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and 
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into 
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 14.5N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 14.9N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.3N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 18.1N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 20.1N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 21.6N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 22.6N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 23.7N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 25.9N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home