Hybridstorm's Weather Blog: Hurricane Lee (Category 1) Nears Landfall In SW Nova Scotia

991

WTNT33 KNHC 160248

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IMMINENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...39.5N 65.8W

ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border

* Martha's Vineyard

* Nantucket

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,

including Grand Manan Island

* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish

* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac

* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove

* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Lee has been moving

toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) over the past few

hours. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast to resume

later tonight, and this motion at a faster forward speed is expected

through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will

continue to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada

through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the

north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada

Saturday night and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds,

based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, are near 80 mph

(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast,

with Lee expected to become extra-tropical on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345

miles (555 km). NOAA Buoy 44011 located about 205 miles (180 km)

north of the center has recently reported a peak one-minute

sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/hr) and a gust of 67 mph (107

km/hr).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches)

based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas

in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to begin in southern New England very soon and then spread

northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm

Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in

Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely

to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic

Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.

RAINFALL: Late tonight into Saturday night, Lee is expected to

produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, or 50 to 125 millimeters

over portions of eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New

Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft

Cape Cod...1-3 ft

Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft

Boston Harbor...1-3 ft

Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the

wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

492

WTNT43 KNHC 160249

TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee remains a very large and dangerous hurricane as it approaches

the northeast United States and Atlantic Canada. The satellite

depiction of Lee shows that the system continues to become more

asymmetric, with most of the convection displaced to the north of

the center. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass shows thick banding on

the northern and western side of the inner core, which is where the

Air Force Hurricane Hunters found the strongest flight-level and

surface winds. The initial intensity, based on aircraft

reconnaissance data, will remain at 70 kt for this advisory. Air

Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Lee again overnight.

Lee continues to wobble as it approaches the northeastern United

States and Atlantic Canada. The past few hours there has been a bit

of a north-northeast jog. Whether this is more of a wobble or a

longer-term motion is still to be determined. Global model guidance

has been hinting that this type of motion would occur as it makes

its approach towards Atlantic Canada, with a slight bend back to the

north-northwest over the next 12-18 h. The track forecast was nudged

to the right given the current motion, but it does show a

north-northwestward motion in the short term. These slight

adjustments on the final approach are minor given the very large

wind field of Lee. Once Lee makes landfall, the system is expected

to accelerate to the northeast as it moves in the flow on the east

side of an approaching trough.

Strong southerly vertical wind shear has displaced the convection to

the northern side of the system. Dry air entrainment is also

inhibiting convection on the southern and eastern side of the

circulation. These hostile environmental conditions will persist as

Lee moves over much cooler waters after it crosses the north wall of

the Gulf Stream on Saturday. Lee is already showing signs of

completing its extratropical transition, with displaced convection

and an elongated center on a recent scatterometer pass, and thus

this transition is now explicitly forecast to occur within the next

12 h. Gradual weakening is forecast throughout the period, the NHC

intensity forecast is similar to the previous, closest to the GFS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New

Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane

Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are

expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm

Warning area very soon, and spread northward along the coast of

New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday.

These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential

power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small

stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine, New Brunswick and

western Nova Scotia Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 39.5N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 16/1200Z 41.7N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

24H 17/0000Z 44.5N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

36H 17/1200Z 47.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/0000Z 50.6N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

60H 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 19/0000Z 54.3N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

657 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

MEZ002-006-011-016-017-029-030-032-161000-

/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0006.230916T0900Z-230917T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northeast Aroostook-Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal

Washington-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren, Mars

Hill, Ashland, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Lincoln,

Howland, Springfield, Amherst, Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great

Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth,

Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias,

Cherryfield, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield

657 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be

possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Far Eastern, Far Northern,

Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine, including the

following areas, in Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and

Coastal Washington. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington and

Southeast Aroostook. In Far Northern Maine, Northeast Aroostook.

In Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior

Hancock. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot.

* WHEN...From 5 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Storm drains and

ditches may become clogged with debris. Road washouts are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- Hurricane Lee is expected to produce heavy rainfall starting

tonight through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall of up to one

inch per hour is possible. The ground is already saturated

due to previous rainfall, so any additional rain could become

runoff, causing urban and small stream flooding.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 42

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-160515-

Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 42

National Weather Service Caribou ME AL132023

512 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

This product covers EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE

**Tropical Storm Warning for Much of Eastern Maine as Lee Approaches**

NEW INFORMATION

---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Penobscot,

Central Piscataquis, Central Washington, Coastal Hancock,

Coastal Washington, Interior Hancock, Northeast Aroostook,

Northern Penobscot, Northern Piscataquis, Northern Washington,

Southeast Aroostook, Southern Penobscot, and Southern

Piscataquis

* STORM INFORMATION:

- About 450 miles south of Petit Manan ME or about 480 miles

south of Eastport ME

- 37.9N 66.7W

- Storm Intensity 80 mph

- Movement North or 10 degrees at 20 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------

-Lee is now forecast to make landfall in western Nova Scotia as a

strong Tropical Storm Saturday evening.

-Lee is a large storm and impacts are expected well away from the

center

-Tropical storm force winds are possible across most of eastern Maine.

Power outages are possible from tree damage.

-Heavy rain leading to flooding is possible, especially over far

eastern Maine. Impacts could be exacerbated by recent rainfall.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------

* WIND:

Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts

across Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:

- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage

to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings

experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile

homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight

objects become dangerous projectiles.

- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater

numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several

fences and roadway signs blown over.

- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban

or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access

routes impassable.

- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent

in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts

across northern Maine.

* FLOODING RAIN:

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant

impacts across Eastern and Downeast Maine. Potential impacts include:

- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and

rescues.

- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter

currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially

in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,

arroyos, and ditches overflow.

- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.

Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation

at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some

streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and

retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.

Some road and bridge closures.

* SURGE:

Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts

across Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:

- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along

immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas

farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.

- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread

with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where

surge water covers the road.

- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly

in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.

- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,

and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:

Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Eastern and

Northern Maine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,

including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so

immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and

property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a

safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles

can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide

poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly

ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an

emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in

which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which

it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay

attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and

hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge

zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find

yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed

evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone

area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded

roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets

for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes

to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather

warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather

Service in Caribou ME around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions

warrant.

Lee Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 42

National Weather Service Caribou ME AL132023

456 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

MEZ006-160500-

/O.CON.KCAR.TR.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

Southeast Aroostook-

456 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

- Houlton

- Island Falls

- Hodgdon

* WIND

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind

- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39

to 57 mph

- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the

previous assessment.

- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm

force.

- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be

completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind

damage.

- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored

mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or

uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees

are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown

over.

- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within

urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving

conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.

- Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect

- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher

amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

moderate flooding rain

- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from

the previous assessment.

- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues

are possible.

- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

vulnerable to flooding.

- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take

action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations

and rescues.

- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with

swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,

especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,

creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.

- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken

foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas

of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and

poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on

moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.

Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge

closures.

* TORNADO

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the

previous assessment.

- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

with gusty winds may still occur.

- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

tornado situation.

- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

- https://maine.gov/mema/hazards/natural-hazards/hurricanes

9:16 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Heavy rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 100 mm.

Locations: majority of New Brunswick except northwest regions.

Time span: early Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- hazardous driving conditions,

- elevated river levels,

- localized flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Remarks: Rainfall rates of 15 to 25 mm per hour are possible in the heaviest downpours.

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

5:21 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee may occur over the above regions.

With the combination of heavy rain and wind gusts from Hurricane Lee, there is a possibility of some tree damage and utility outages Saturday afternoon and evening. We do not expect a major impact but the public is advised to secure loose items on their property and other standard preparedness activities.

This watch covers a broad area including two-thirds of New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, the Magdelan Islands, northern Nova Scotia and all of Cape Breton. Wind direction will be south to southeast for most of the watch area except New Brunswick where winds will be from the north to northeast. This watch may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning tonight if we see signs of increasing winds.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

9:11 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT.

Large and dangerous Hurricane Lee will bring high winds and heavy rains to the Maritimes later tonight and Saturday. It will also bring high waves, heavy pounding surf and elevated water levels along the Atlantic coast on Saturday.

Intensity/classification: Lee currently a category-1 hurricane transitioning into into an intense post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening.

1. Summary of basic information as of 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 38.7 degrees North 66.5 degrees West.

About 571 km south of Yarmouth.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 33 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 965 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and from Digby County through to and including all of Halifax County in Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for most of New Brunswick with the exception of the northwest, Pictou and Antigonish Counties in mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island and Iles-de-la-Madeleine.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the New Brunswick Fundy Coast and also the Northumberland coast from Tidnish to Shediac. Most of mainland Nova Scotia is also under a Tropical Storm Warning with the exception of northern Nova Scotia.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for all but northwestern sections of New Brunswick, and for portions of western mainland Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings are also in effect for eastern regions of the Gaspe Peninsula, Anticosti Island and a portion of the Quebec Lower North Shore. Wind warnings are in effect for most of mainland Nova Scotia as well as the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick.

The circulation around Hurricane Lee will be quite expansive as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to several hundred kilometres away from it.

a. Wind.

Most likely region for worst impacts: western and central Nova Scotia, including Halifax County, as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm warning could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. Given the abundance of rainfall over the past several months, and most recently Thursday, the ground is quite saturated and could be more prone to uprooted trees, especially those that are in full foliage. Widespread power outages appear likely across most of mainland Nova Scotia and near the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick. Some structural damage to roofing materials and siding, as well as exterior fixtures and fencing are expected.

b. Rainfall.

Heaviest rainfall threat will be near and to the left of the track and runs from western Nova Scotia northward through central and northeastern New Brunswick and into the Gaspe region, as well as the Quebec Lower North Shore out to Blanc-Sablon.

Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas near and to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased - there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm or more directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that fell Thursday increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.

c. Surge/Waves.

High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas are expected to cover much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions will also become rough in areas in the western Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria. This includes all of the east coast of New Brunswick.

For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4 to 6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely in areas facing the open ocean. Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves will result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday from Shelburne County to Guysborough County then again during the high tide late Saturday evening. Water levels up to 1.5 metre (5 feet) above high tide is possible. Storm surge warnings are in effect from Shelburne County eastward to Guysborough County, giving a threat of damage to coastal infrastructure along with beach erosion.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and the southern Maritimes marine district. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern waters near the track. Storm or gale warnings are in effect for most remaining waters. Significant wave heights up to 15 meters or so are possible for some offshore waters south of Nova Scotia.

Forecaster: March/Borgel

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

9:27 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

People near the coast should monitor for worsening conditions and be prepared to move to a safer location at a moment's notice.

Impacts from storm surge are expected, including coastal flooding, beach erosion, infrastructure damage, spread of coastal debris, and localized coastal road washouts.

Locations: Atlantic coast of Mainland Nova Scotia, especially south-facing coastlines.

Maximum Water Levels: exceeding high astronomical tide, with water

inundating sections of the coast exposed to waves from the south.

Maximum wave heights: 8 to 12 metres, breaking 4 to 6 metres for coastlines exposed to waves from the south.

Time span: Saturday morning until Saturday night. Worst near high tides.

First high tide: 6 A.M. to 10 A.M. Saturday.

Second high tide: 7 P.M. Saturday to 11 P.M. Saturday.

Remarks: Be sure to follow any instructions issued by local authorities.

Storm surge warnings are issued when water levels pose a threat to coastal regions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

Follow:'Regional ATOM feed' | translateRegional ATOM

9:23 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: 90 to 110 km/h.

Locations: most of mainland Nova Scotia.

Time span: Saturday ending Saturday night.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

2:46 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

Wind gusts could reach 120 km/h over parts of the warning area that are simultaneously under a Hurricane Watch (i.e. most of the southern half of mainland Nova Scotia). These conditions are expected to begin Saturday morning.

For Nova Scotia in particular:

These winds will likely topple some trees (leading to downed utility lines), damage signs and cause some property damage to roofing materials, cladding, fences and exterior fixtures. This could result in some damage to docks and breakwaters. Shoreline erosion and wave overwash is expected where winds blow onshore.

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

9:16 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: northeasterly 80 km/h, except 100 along parts of the Fundy coast.

Locations: coastal regions or areas along the Bay of Fundy shoreline.

Time span: Saturday.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

2:46 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

For Nova Scotia in particular:

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

5:21 PM ADT Friday 15 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee may occur over the above regions.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Hybridstorm's Weather Blog

Friday, September 15, 2023

Hurricane Lee (Category 1) Nears Landfall In SW Nova Scotia

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