Thursday, September 14, 2023

Hurricane Lee (Category 1) Zeroes In On The Maritimes

























































11:47 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023
Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

Tropical storm conditions expected to begin early Saturday morning.

Corresponding wind, rainfall, and storm surge warnings will be issued for affected areas later today.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines.

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.


11:47 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023
Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

Tropical storm conditions expected to begin early Saturday morning.

Corresponding wind, rainfall, and storm surge warnings will be issued for affected areas later today.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines.

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.


002 
WTNT33 KNHC 150249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
continue to pass west-northwest of Bermuda through tonight, 
approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and 
Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through Friday
afternoon.  Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and
Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the
next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85
km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport
on Bermuda.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New
England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda overnight
and early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia.  This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


691 
WTNT43 KNHC 150250
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Lee's eyewall is not well defined, and this
is also suggested by geostationary satellite and microwave imagery.
Although the peak 700 mb flight-level winds reported by the plane
were near 93 kt, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 72 kt.
Thus the winds aloft in the hurricane are not being transported
very effectively to the surface.  This is not surprising, since the
central deep convection is no longer very strong.  The current
intensity is kept at 75 kt based on the aircraft data, which is
well above the Dvorak satellite estimates.

Lee wobbled a bit to the northeast early this evening, but the
longer-term motion appears to be just east of north, or around
010/12 kt.  The system should move generally northward at a faster
forward speed, on the west side of a mid-level ridge, during the
next day or so.  A slight bend to the left is likely late Friday as
the cyclone interacts with a mid-level trough.  By late Saturday,
Lee should begin to turn toward the north-northeast with the center
passing near or over western Nova Scotia.  Then, Lee is forecast to
turn northeastward over Atlantic Canada.  The track guidance remains
in good agreement through 72 hours, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one.

South-southwesterly shear is predicted to increase significantly
over Lee during the next couple of days.  This, along with cooler
SSTs, particularly after the system moves north of 40N latitude,
should result in weakening.  However, baroclinic processes could
help the cyclone maintain its intensity, or at least slow the
weakening rate.  The official intensity forecast is above the model
guidance for this reason.  In 48 hours, simulated satellite imagery
shows an asymmetric cloud structure characteristic of an
extratropical cyclone.  Regardless of when extratropical transition
actually occurs, however, Lee should remain a very large and
dangerous cyclone through landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf will
continue to impact Bermuda through Friday morning, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected
to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon, and spread
northward along the coast of New England and over portions of
Atlantic Canada through Saturday where Tropical Storm warnings are
in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia from Friday night into Saturday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 32.9N  67.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 35.0N  67.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 38.4N  66.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 41.6N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 44.3N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  17/1200Z 47.0N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0000Z 49.6N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0000Z 54.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
922 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

MEZ029-030-151045-
/O.CON.KCAR.CF.W.0001.230916T0300Z-230916T2100Z/
/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230915T1600Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
922 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO
5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Warning, overwash is expected for
  large breaking waves along the coast. These waves may cause
  minor inundation along low lying areas exposed to waves and
  tidal influence.

  For the High Surf Advisory tonight into early Friday, large
  breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Warning, from 11 PM Friday to 5
  PM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT
  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Machias, Seawall Road on Mount Desert Island,
  Schoodic Point, Deer Isle Causeway, and other low lying, tidal
  influenced areas including around Lubec and Eastport may
  experience minor to moderate inundation and overwash. Greatest
  concern is for the Saturday high tide near noon.

  High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will
  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a
  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock
  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves
  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.

&&
$$


9:24 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023
The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane Lee will be moving into western Nova Scotia / southern New Brunswick Saturday with heavy rains, high winds, and large waves then weakening quickly Saturday night with lingering conditions on Sunday.  

Intensity/classification: Approaching category-1 hurricane becoming a strong tropical storm then transforming into post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 32.1 degrees North 68 degrees West.

About 315 km west of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 139 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North around 24 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 957 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, and Queens Counties in Nova Scotia.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saint John County, Fundy National Park, and Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick.  Most of mainland Nova Scotia is now under a tropical storm watch except northern Nova Scotia and Colchester County north and south of Truro. This will likely be upgraded to a warning tonight.

The circulation of Hurricane Lee will be quite broad as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to 300 km away from it.

NOTE: In addition to Lee, the Maritime provinces will continue to experience bands of training downpours travelling from southwest to northeast throughout the night and Friday.  These bands are notoriously difficult to predict but it is important to understand there is a flooding risk with these bands well before the arrival of Lee. Near 75 mm has fallen today in the eastern Annapolis Valley. These complex effects are indirectly related to the hurricane.  Additional rainfall from Lee itself could exacerbate the risk of flooding. 
 
a. Wind.

Most likely region for worst impacts: western Nova Scotia as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm watch could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h possible. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. Winds of that strength this time of year would result in some tree damage and utility interruptions.

b. Rainfall.
Heaviest rainfall threat has shifted eastward a bit and now runs through central New Brunswick and northward into the Gaspe region and the Lower Quebec North Shore.  We have extended this bulletin and rainfall threat northeastward to Blanc Sablon Quebec.  The risk of heavy rains is decreasing (but still exists) for the Rimouski and Temiscouata area.  

Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased - there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that is falling there today increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.

c. Surge/Waves.

High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas likely covering much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions could also become rough in areas in the southwestern Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria.

For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely.  Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves could result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday in Shelburne County then during the high tide late Saturday evening along the coast from Queens County to eastern Halifax County.  It is during this late-Saturday period where a storm surge warning may be required - water levels up to 1 metre (3 feet) above high tide is possible. Consider this statement effectively as a 'watch'. 

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for southwestern marine areas beginning late in the day on Friday. Hurricane force winds are likely to impact southwestern waters on Saturday and potentially Lurcher for a brief period on the west side of the storm.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Roch

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.


8:27 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023
Elevated pollution levels are expected or occurring.

Smoke from a fire in downtown Saint John is reducing air quality across parts of the city.

Locations: Downtown Saint John.

Time span: continuing tonight.

Short range wind forecast: light southwesterly winds becoming northerly overnight.

Remarks: An industrial fire on the Saint John waterfront is causing significant concentrations of smoke and reduced air quality in the vicinity of the fire as well as along the waterfront in the downtown area.

Please adhere to any instructions from local authorities.

Individuals may experience symptoms such as increased coughing, throat irritation, headaches or shortness of breath. Children, seniors, and those with cardiovascular or lung disease, such as asthma, are especially at risk.

If you are experiencing symptoms, such as coughing or throat irritation, consider reducing or rescheduling strenuous outdoor activities until the special air quality statement is lifted. Exposure to air pollution is particularly a health concern for people with heart or breathing problems, those with diabetes, children and the elderly.

Visit airhealth.ca for information on how to reduce your health risk and your personal contribution to pollution levels, as well as for current and forecast AQHI values.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Issued by Environment Canada, the New Brunswick Department of Environment and Local Government and the New Brunswick Department of Health.


Lee Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

MEZ011-150530-
/O.NEW.KCAR.TR.W.1013.230914T2127Z-000000T0000Z/
Central Penobscot-
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lincoln
    - Howland
    - Springfield

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://maine.gov/mema/hazards/natural-hazards/hurricanes

$$


Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 38
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-150600-

Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023
547 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

This product covers EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE

**Tropical Storm Warning Issued and Hurricane Watch Continues for
 Downeast Maine as Lee Approaches**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Central Washington, Interior Hancock, Northern
      Washington, and Southern Penobscot
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Central Penobscot,
      Coastal Hancock, and Coastal Washington

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Penobscot,
      Central Washington, Interior Hancock, Northern Washington, and
      Southern Penobscot

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 910 miles south of Eastport ME
    - 31.7N 68.3W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

- Forecast confidence continues to increase that Lee will make
  landfall along the coast of New Brunswick late Saturday night/early
  Sunday morning

- Lee is a large storm and impacts are expected well away from the
center

- Tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall are expected from
Bangor Region through Interior Downeast and southward. The Downeast
Coast will feel the most impact from Lee, including moderate coastal
flooding and erosion.

- Power outages and localized flooding from rainfall could be enhanced
 by rainfall earlier this week

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across Northern Maine.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across Eastern and Downeast Maine. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water and rocks and debris. Driving conditions
      dangerous in places where surge water or rocks and debris covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Caribou ME around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

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