Lee Now A Hurricane (Category 1) Could Still Pose A Grave Long-range Threat

297 

WTNT33 KNHC 070244

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY 

FRIDAY...

...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE 

VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.4N 47.7W

ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the

progress of Lee.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 47.7 West.  Lee is moving toward

the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is 

expected to continue through Friday.  A slower motion toward the 

west-northwest is expected over the weekend.  

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and rapid 

intensification is expected to begin on Thursday.  Lee could become 

a major hurricane by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of

the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda

this weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Berg

000

WTNT43 KNHC 070245

TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

Lee has an asymmetric structure this evening, with the bulk of the 

convective activity located to the east of the center.  Dvorak 

estimates from TAFB and SAB were a pair of T4.0s/65 kt, but 

objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher.  

Therefore, Lee's initial intensity is set at 70 kt.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, with 

Lee situated to the south of the subtropical ridge.  Ridging is 

expected to build westward, and even out ahead of the hurricane 

over the southwestern Atlantic, during the next 5 days.  As a 

result, Lee is likely to maintain a west-northwestward trajectory 

but gradually slow down beyond day 2, with its forward speed 

decreasing to about 7 kt by day 5.  The new NHC track forecast 

is right on top of the previous prediction during the first 

3 days of the forecast.  After that, the official forecast has been 

nudged westward, leaning toward the latest TVCX and HCCA consensus 

aids.  The track model envelope continues to indicate that the 

core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward 

Islands.  However, interests in those islands should continue to 

monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is 

about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have 

a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force 

winds on the southern side of the storm.

Global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone 

developing over Lee during the next 24 hours and persisting over 

the hurricane into the weekend, which should keep the deep-layer 

shear quite low.  In addition, oceanic heat content values will 

double along Lee's track during the next 3 days.  As a result, 

rapid intensification (RI) is forecast to begin on Thursday, and 

following the previous forecast, a 65-kt increase in strength is 

predicted during the next 3 days, bringing Lee to high-end category 

4 intensity.  This forecast lies close to the HAFS dynamical model 

and HCCA consensus aid solutions, and it is also supported by very 

high RI probabilities from the DTOPS scheme for the 36-, 48-, and 

72-hour forecast periods.  Fluctuations in intensity are likely by 

days 4 and 5 due to potential eyewall replacements, but Lee is 

still expected to be a large and dangerous hurricane over the 

southwestern Atlantic early next week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday, 

with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the 

Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week.  

There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on 

some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should 

monitor future updates to Lee's forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, 

Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.  

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 

current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.4N  47.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 16.1N  49.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 17.0N  51.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z 18.1N  54.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  09/0000Z 19.1N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

 60H  09/1200Z 20.1N  58.5W  130 KT 150 MPH

 72H  10/0000Z 20.8N  60.3W  135 KT 155 MPH

 96H  11/0000Z 22.0N  63.5W  130 KT 150 MPH

120H  12/0000Z 23.0N  66.1W  125 KT 145 MPH

$$

Forecaster Berg