Friday, October 06, 2023

Tropical Storm Philippe Approaches Update One

















































Flood Watch
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1157 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-071200-
/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0008.231007T2200Z-231008T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Dover-Foxcroft, Hodgdon, Baxter St Park,
Churchill Dam, Guilford, Van Buren, Sherman, Millinocket,
Madawaska, Presque Isle, Medway, Houlton, Springfield, Smyrna
Mills, East Millinocket, Patten, Greenville, Monson, Vanceboro,
Baker Lake, Caribou, Allagash, Fort Kent, Frenchville, Mount
Katahdin, Blanchard, Ashland, Mars Hill, Clayton Lake, Billy-Jack
Depot, Lincoln, Howland, Danforth, Milo, Topsfield, and
Chamberlain Lake
1157 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern,
  North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine, including the following
  areas, in Central Highlands Maine, Central Piscataquis, Northern
  Penobscot and Southern Piscataquis. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern
  Washington and Southeast Aroostook. In Far Northern Maine,
  Northeast Aroostook and Northwest Aroostook. In North Woods Maine,
  Northern Piscataquis and Northern Somerset. In Penobscot Valley
  Maine, Central Penobscot.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flash flooding of fast
  responding creeks, and streams, and flooding of other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Locally heavy rainfall will begin by late Saturday afternoon
    to early Saturday evening and continue into Sunday morning,
    before tapering off by early Sunday afternoon. Around 1 to
    3.5 inches of rain are expected, with locally up to around 5
    inches of rain possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&
$$

Buster


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1015 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ029-030-071015-
/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0003.231008T1000Z-231008T2200Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
1015 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 10 feet expected in the
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will
  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a
  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock
  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves
  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.

&&
$$


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1013 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ001-002-006-032-071015-
/O.CON.KCAR.WI.Y.0005.231008T0500Z-231008T1400Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Southeast Aroostook-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,
Mars Hill, Ashland, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills,
Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield
1013 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Aroostook, Northeast Aroostook, Southeast
  Aroostook and Northern Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and
  powerlines. Isolated to scattered power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&
$$


000
WTNT32 KNHC 061453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Advisory Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL POSES A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of the post-tropical cyclone and refer to products
issued by their local weather offices.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Philippe was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 64.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
16 mph (26 km/h).  A northward or north-northwestward motion at a 
faster forward speed is expected during the next few days.  On the 
forecast track, the system will continue passing Bermuda today and 
will reach the coast of Atlantic Canada or eastern New England 
Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Strong winds are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada
and eastern New England this weekend.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall will be diminishing across Bermuda today.  An
additional inch or less of rainfall is possible.

For portions of New York and New England, and Southeast Canada,
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum amounts of 5
inches, are expected this weekend.  Isolated to scattered instances
of urban and flash flooding will be possible.

SURF:  Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda for the next
few days.  Swells are also affecting portions of the southeastern
U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  These conditions
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system.  Future information on potential flooding 
from this system in the Northeast U.S. can be found in products 
issued by the Weather Prediction Center on the web at 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and in products issued by local National 
Weather Service Forecast offices on the web at www.weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts from this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
WTNT42 KNHC 061454
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

The center we were following overnight has become untrackable this 
morning and appears to have become absorbed by the nearby frontal 
zone.  In addition, the overall cloud pattern now has the look of a 
classic extratropical cyclone, with Philippe's center resembling 
the triple point of an occlusion.  Based on these recent 
developments, Philippe is being declared a post-tropical cyclone.  
The intensity remains 45 kt, mainly based on continuity.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 
020/14 kt, but this movement is becoming less representative as the 
larger storm system takes over.  Philippe's remnant center and 
another non-tropical low to the west are likely to interact and/or 
merge with each other during the next day or two, but the overall 
system is expected to move northward or north-northwestward at 
increasing forward speed into the weekend.  This will bring the 
center of the post-tropical cyclone to the coast of Nova Scotia or 
Maine in about 48 hours, and then inland toward eastern Quebec 
before it becomes absorbed by a separate but larger extratropical 
low.

The post-tropical cyclone still has an opportunity to strengthen a 
bit over the next day or so due to baroclinic influences.  Due to 
the system's structure and forward motion, the strongest winds are 
expected to be on the eastern side of the circulation and will 
most likely affect portions of Atlantic Canada.  Weakening is 
forecast after the system moves inland.

Future information on potential flooding impacts in the Northeast 
United States can be found in products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and 
in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast 
Offices on the web at http://weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.  

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to move over portions of 
Atlantic Canada and New England this weekend.  Interests in those 
areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and 
heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather 
office.  The rainfall may produce isolated to scattered instances of 
urban and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 30.7N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  07/0000Z 33.1N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 36.3N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 40.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 44.9N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  09/0000Z 49.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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