Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Tropical Storm Philippe Departs The Caribbean And Heads Our Way

































000
WTNT32 KNHC 040232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 
PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was 
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster 
motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Philippe will continue to move away from the 
Virgin Islands.  Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night 
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few 
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL:  Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall 
amounts through Wednesday:

The United States & British Virgin Islands:  4 to 8 inches with 
maximum amounts to 12 inches.

Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND:  Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
the Virgin Islands through early Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the 
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, 
and Puerto Rico for another couple of days.  Swells are expected to 
reach Bermuda by late Thursday.  These conditions are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Even though the center of Philippe is more than one hundred miles 
north of the Virgin Islands, heavy rains on the system's south side 
continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  
The cyclone remains poorly organized with the low-level circulation 
appearing diffuse and convection remaining ragged and lacking 
organization.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is near 
the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Philippe is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, at 10 kt.  The 
models are in good agreement in showing Philippe turning 
north-northwestward to northward on Wednesday when the storm moves 
between a mid- to upper-level high over the central Atlantic and a 
cut off low off the Florida coast.  These features should provide 
the steering currents for Philippe through the remainder of the 
week, causing a northward motion with some increase in forward 
speed.  The storm is likely to be near Bermuda on Friday.  A larger 
trough is expected to move across eastern Canada and the 
northeastern U.S. late this week and cut off over the weekend.  In 
response, Philippe could turn northwestward into northern New 
England or Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days.

The storm continues to feel the effects of west-northwesterly shear 
and dry air entrainment, and its poor structure suggests that 
little, if any, intensification is likely in the short term.  The 
models show some strengthening late this week and early this weekend 
when Philippe likely gets some baroclinic support from the nearby 
trough.  This interaction should also cause Philippe to gain frontal 
features and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days before it reaches 
northern New England or Atlantic Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered 
flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin 
Islands through Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda late this week.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 20.1N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 21.2N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 24.9N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 27.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 30.7N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 33.9N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 40.5N  66.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 49.0N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
FXUS61 KCAR 040144
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalls across Maine tonight, then moves back north in
the form of a warm front Wednesday. High pressure will be
centered well to the east Thursday through Friday. A complex
storm system approaches from the west Friday night through
Saturday, then slowly crosses the area Saturday night and
Sunday.....

.....Previous discussion...

A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight while high
pressure builds south across the Maritimes. The high will begin
to move east Wednesday. With the developing return flow, the
frontal boundary will lift back north in the form of a warm
front Wednesday. Aloft, upper ridging builds across the region
tonight into Wednesday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies
across the region tonight. However, isolated showers moving over
the top of the building upper ridge could clip northern areas
overnight. Patchy fog is also possible overnight, mostly across
central and Downeast areas. Expect partly sunny skies across the
region Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
lower to mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s
across much of the forecast area, with upper 60s to around 70
along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The axis of the deep layered ridge slowly slides to the east
Wednesday night through Friday. Subsidence under the ridge
should keep things dry. There should be patches to possibly
areas of fog at night/during the early morning hours.

Lows Wednesday night should be around 20 degrees above normal.
Highs on Thursday and lows Thursday night should be around 10
degrees normal nearer the coast to up to around 20 degrees above
normal across portions of the North. Highs On Friday should be
around 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remains from just east of the Great Lakes to over Western Quebec
from Friday night through Tuesday, depending on your model of
choice. This cutoff low interacts with Tropical Cyclone
Philippe, as it transitions towards extra-tropical and possible
merger with the cutoff low. The result will be a gradually
increasing chance of rain from Friday night into Saturday night
(likely pops everywhere Saturday night). The rain chances should
remain high on Sunday, then become more intermittent/showery in
nature Monday/Tuesday.

Depending on how much tropical moisture from Philippe gets
entrained into the cutoff, will determine how much rainfall we
get from this weekend into early next week. There is the
potential for a prolonged period of locally heavy rainfall over
the weekend. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
as to how things will play out this far out in time. As a result
its too early to begin specify what, if any, impacts might be
had.

Refer to the most recent products from the National Hurricane
Center for the latest on Philippe.....

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