Remnants of Hurricane Beryl Soaks The Region

565

FXUS61 KCAR 110220

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1020 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the

region tonight into Friday. A front will stall across the

region Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will cross the

region Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach later Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

1020 PM Update: Moderate to heavy rain showers are beginning to

cross into our forecast area late this evening as seen on

current KCBW radar imagery. Current IR satellite imagery shows

that though cloud top temperatures remain much cooler in areas

of heavy rain, the sharp contrast between discrete storms and

more stratiform rain has lessened, indicating the threat for

thunderstorms is waning into the overnight hours. Even so,

lightning strikes have been detected with isolated thunderstorms

currently tracking into southern Piscataquis county.

Rainfall amounts remain generally on track with what is in the

forecast so far, with maybe the slightest southerly shift early

on for where heavier rain is. That said, current trajectories

have the heavier rain band sliding northward further into the

Central Highlands as the night progresses. Only minor changes

were made to the forecast with this update to account for

current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:

The main story for tonight and Thursday will be the heavy

rainfall from the remnants of Beryl progressing towards the

area. For this evening, the initial tropical moisture will move

into the west and progress east throughout the night. By

tonight, high-res models and extended models are in good

agreement with the heaviest band of rainfall moving slightly

further north along the frontal boundary. This new heavy rain

band is expected to stretch from the Central Highlands through

Southern Aroostook, where the higher terrain will play a big

part in supporting the rain. Thus, the Flood Watch has been

extended into northern Somerset and northern Piscataquis to

capture the higher rainfall (more details in the Hydrology

section below). Though Coastal Downeast will still receive rain,

onshore flow will help stabilize the area thus decreasing heavy

rainfall amounts. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm producing

locally heavy rain. Patchy to areas of fog throughout the night

across the region.

By Thursday, the heaviest rainfall will begin to end, however,

rain showers will continue through much of the day. By the

afternoon, guidance shows the center of the remnants of Beryl

moving across the northern parts of the state. Upper air model

soundings show instability developing along the boundary,

however will be weakening with the remnant of Beryl exiting over

the maritimes. Decided to keep isolated thunderstorms in the

forecast for the north. Stability and areas of fog will be to

high in the south for thunderstorms development. Temps in the

upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Low pressure, the weakening remnants of Beryl, will cross the

region Thursday night into Friday. The low will begin to draw a

weak frontal boundary south across the region Friday. Expect

likely showers north Thursday night, with a chance of mostly

early showers Downeast. Low level moisture will also support

areas of fog Thursday night. Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny

skies across northern areas Friday along with a chance of

showers, slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Expect

partly sunny skies Downeast along with the slight chance of an

afternoon shower/thunderstorm. The frontal boundary will reach

the Downeast coast Friday night. Could still have a chance of

showers Friday evening. Otherwise, expect generally partly

cloudy skies along with patchy/areas of fog. The front should

stall in the vicinity of the Downeast coast Saturday, while a

disturbance crosses the Gulf of Maine. Expect partly

sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers

Downeast Saturday, along with the slight chance of an afternoon

thunderstorm. Across northern areas, generally expect partly

sunny skies. However, could have enough diurnal instability to

also support the slight chance of an afternoon

shower/thunderstorm. Expect above normal level temperatures

Friday/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Could still have the slight chance of an early shower Saturday

evening. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies

Saturday night. High pressure will cross the region Sunday with

mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. A warm front should cross the

region Monday with a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

A cold front is then expected to cross the region

Tuesday/Wednesday, though timing differences still exist. Expect

a chance of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday with

diurnal instability and the possible proximity of the cold

front. Expect above normal level temperatures Sunday through

Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Conditions deteriorating

towards IFR/LIFR due to rain showers with localized heavy rain.

Light and variable winds. For Thursday, MVFR/IFR in cigs/vsby

due to rain. E winds 5-10 kts. Isolated thunderstorms possible

at northern terminals, with the highest probability being near

GNR through around HUL.

Downeast Terminals...Developing IFR/LIFR conditions due to rain

showers and patchy fog. Light and variable winds. Thunder

likely near BGR this evening, with a decreasing threat into the

later overnight hours. For Thursday, IFR to LIFR conditions in

cigs/vsby due to rain and patchy fog.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely north, with a chance of

mostly early showers Downeast. Slight chance of an early

thunderstorm. Variable conditions with areas of fog. Variable

winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest.

Friday...Variable conditions with any early fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR

with a chance of showers north. Slight chance of an afternoon

thunderstorm. Slight chance of an afternoon shower/thunderstorm

Downeast. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night...Variable conditions with any fog. Otherwise, VFR.

Slight chance of an early shower. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise,

generally VFR. Occasional MVFR Downeast. A chance of showers

Downeast, slight chance north. Slight chance of an afternoon

thunderstorm. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10

knots.

Monday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of afternoon

showers and thunderstorms. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions tonight.

Winds increase Thursday morning to SCA conditions and remain for

the day. Seas 3-4 ft.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday

night into Friday night. A chance of showers Thursday night. A

slight chance of showers Friday/Friday night. A chance of

showers Saturday. Areas/patchy fog Thursday night into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Potentially excessive rainfall may cause scattered flash

flooding tonight into Thursday morning. Any flash flooding will

be mainly localized impacting mainly vulnerable areas including

urban areas, hilly terrain roads, small rivers, streams and

creeks and washout prone locations including dirt/gravel roads

and ATV trails. WPC has issued a Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall

Outlook for a large portion of the CWA for tonight into

Thursday morning. Soil moisture continues to run below normal

across much of the Downeast and Central Highlands with well

above normal conditions in portions of the North Woods into the

Aroostook River Basin. Main stem rivers are not going to flood

with this event. However, near record level PWATs, strong

dynamical support and well efficient rainfall production (warm

cloud layer 13-14.5kft) will be a concern for excessive

rainfall. At this point the greatest concern will be in

Penobscot County, Piscataquis County, Northern Somerset county

as well as Southeast Aroostook county. A flood watch has been

hoisted for this area beginning this evening through Thursday

morning. However, cannot rule out the need for isolated flash

flood warnings in areas outside of the watch or the need for

expansion of the watch. Those planning on driving overnight,

camping, hiking or riding ATV trails through these areas should

stay alert to rapidly changing conditions this evening into

Thursday morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MEZ003>006-010-011-

     015-031-032.

MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/LaFlash

Short Term...Norcross

Long Term...Norcross

Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash/Norcross

Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash/Norcross

Hydrology...LaFlash/Sinko

Flash Flood Warning

MEC007-017-NHC007-110615-

/O.NEW.KGYX.FF.W.0016.240711T0224Z-240711T0615Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gray ME

1024 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Southern Franklin County in western Maine...

  Northwestern Oxford County in western Maine...

  Central Coos County in northern New Hampshire...

* Until 215 AM EDT.

* At 1024 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated

  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between

  2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of

  1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is

  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban

           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as

           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Farmington, Colebrook, Rangeley, Rumford, Kingfield, Andover,

  Carrabassett Valley, Errol, Grafton and Weld.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 7013 4495 7011 4494 7015 4491 7015

      4485 7013 4486 7003 4479 7002 4462 7044

      4451 7102 4469 7103 4462 7156 4475 7163

      4479 7157 4491 7150 4499 7154 4501 7147

      4501 7150 4507 7150 4513 7143 4502 7080

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

MSC

10:08 PM ADT Wednesday 10 July 2024

Potential for significant rainfall tonight into Thursday evening.

Locations: Queens and Kings County.

Time span: later tonight until Thursday evening.

Remarks: A disorganized weather system containing the moisture from remnants of Beryl is expected to move through western PEI later tonight. High rainfall rates and accumulations are possible.

Given the convective nature of this system some uncertainty remains as whether or not areas outside of western PEI will experience heavy downpours and significant rainfall accumulations.

Similar events in the past have brought heavy downpours and pooling of water, as well as localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

10:07 PM ADT Wednesday 10 July 2024

Potential for significant rainfall tonight into Thursday afternoon.

Locations: southern and central parts of New Brunswick.

Time span: tonight through Thursday afternoon.

Remarks: A disorganized weather system containing the moisture from remnants of Beryl will affect New Brunswick tonight and Thursday. High rainfall rates and accumulations are possible.  Given the nature of this system some uncertainty remains as whether or not these areas of New Brunswick will experience heavy downpours and significant rainfall accumulations.

Similar events in the past have brought heavy downpours and pooling of water, as well as localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Saint John and County

10:05 PM ADT Wednesday 10 July 2024

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Locations: Prince County.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm, except locally 80 mm or more in areas of heaviest rain.

Time span: tonight until Thursday evening.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- the overflowing of creeks and rivers

- localized flooding in poor drainage areas

- road shoulder erosion and washouts

Remarks: A disorganized weather system containing the moisture from the remnants of Beryl will affect the area tonight. and Thursday.

High Rainfall rates in excess of 20 mm per hour may occur over some locations, leading to variable rainfall accumulations over short distances. Conditions may change rapidly, with heavy, torrential downpours.

Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

In effect for:

Prince County P.E.I.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 520

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024

TORNADO WATCH 520 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE

 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MEC017-110400-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0520.240710T2155Z-240711T0400Z/

ME

.    MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

OXFORD

$$

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

321 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MEZ005-006-010-011-015-031-032-110900-

/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0005.240711T0000Z-240711T1500Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Danforth, Millinocket, Springfield, Milo,

Medway, Guilford, Topsfield, Greenville, Lincoln, Dover-Foxcroft,

Blanchard, Patten, Monson, Houlton, Old Town, Hodgdon, Brewer,

Smyrna Mills, East Millinocket, Howland, Bangor, Vanceboro,

Orono, and Sherman

321 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, and Penobscot

  Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Central Highlands

  Maine, Central Piscataquis, Northern Penobscot and Southern

  Piscataquis. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington and

  Southeast Aroostook. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot

  and Southern Penobscot.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur

  in poor drainage and urban areas. Excessive rainfall may cause

  significant washouts of dirt and gravel roads along with ATV

  trails.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Remnants of Beryl will combine with a nearly stationary front

    to enhance rainfall rates across portions of the Central

    Highlands. Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches with isolated

    higher amounts may cause excessive runoff.

  - For flood safety visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared

to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Norcross