Tropical Storm Ernesto Moves Through The Virgin Islands

232
FXUS61 KCAR 140115
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
915 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface trofs will move across the region through
Saturday. Low pressure will begin to approach Sunday.....

....LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level low is forecast to move to the southeast Friday
night into Saturday, giving way to high pressure and dry
conditions. Return flow ahead of an upper level trough over the
Great Lakes will begin Saturday afternoon, resulting in
increasing chances for showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm during the late afternoon and evening, particularly
across the higher terrain of the North Woods and Central
Highlands. The upper level trough will slowly move towards the
area through the rest of the weekend and into early next week,
maintaining shower chances, mainly during the day. The GFS is
much slower with the progression of the trough and even shows a
cutoff low attempting to form over the Eastern Great Lakes. This
results in Ernesto moving closer to the area and impacting Nova
Scotia. However, other guidance shows a less amplified upper
trough, steering Ernesto further out to sea. In any case, with
troughing over the area from late weekend into early next week,
shower chances will continue, mainly during the day with daytime
heating. Temperatures will remain seasonable this weekend into
early next week.

Long period swell from distant Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is
forecast to become a hurricane as it moves northward from Puerto
Rico towards Bermuda, will reach the area Friday night into
Saturday. The swell will continue to build, peaking Sunday night
into Monday. High surf and rip currents are possible along the
coast, particularly later this weekend and Monday......


566 
WTNT35 KNHC 140245
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was 
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed 
is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto 
Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the 
western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday 
and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and 
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the 
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently 
reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph 
(93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the
overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
the watch area during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


733 
WTNT45 KNHC 140247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate 
Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. 
The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar 
data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally 
confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data 
from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central 
pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier 
aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 
700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial 
intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned 
northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from 
the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto 
Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward 
during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical 
ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the 
western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, 
although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough 
passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track 
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to 
Bermuda Friday night into Saturday. 

The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified 
an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening 
over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and 
statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over 
the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models 
(particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based 
on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been 
raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and 
now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with 
hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and 
Vieques.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto 
Rico tonight through Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of 
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks 
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach 
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and 
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart