Historic Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall In Jamacia

040

FXUS61 KCAR 290042

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

842 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface high pressure will remain north of the region through

mid week, while an upper trough remains across the region. Low

pressure will approach Thursday, cross the region Friday, then

move north of Maine through the weekend.

&&......

........SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Thursday through Friday, a low pressure system developing over

the mid-Atlantic will move northward and cross the state of

Maine. Model forecasts are beginning to come to a consensus on

the track, with the low center moving from south to north across

the state. This will bring a band of precipitation across the

area beginning Thursday night, although showers will develop

ahead of the main front on Thursday afternoon. This system will

tap into the same moisture feed currently fueling Hurricane

Melissa. Although Melissa will be far enough to the east to have

minimal impacts on Northern Maine, the tropical moisture will

increase rain rates with this particular storm. QPF values are

ranging from 1.0 to 2.5", with around 1.5" the most likely for

northern counties and 2.0" more likely towards Bangor and the

Downeast Coast. Some question remains as to the strength of the

winds in the warm sector ahead of the front. CAMs are indicating

a strengthening low level jet; however currently thinking that

mixing down these winds is slightly less likely than in a cold

air advection environment. Therefore, expect gusty southeasterly

winds, in particular along the coast, but right now winds

should remain below advisory level (<40 mph).

As the low moves through on Friday, the first band of precip

will move northeastward, but then be followed by more convective

activity Friday afternoon and evening. Winds during this period

will also switch to a more westerly direction behind the low.

Although the LLJ associated with the warm front will have moved

eastward, the convective nature behind the low should pull more

gusty winds to the surface, and winds/wind gusts will increase

Friday night.

Temperatures during this period will be warm with the front on

Thursday night and Friday, then cooling behind the front Friday

night. Gusty winds will make for brisk conditions on Friday

night, mainly across the north and west. Trick or treaters, and

their chaperones, should plan accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The center of low pressure will have moved off to the northeast

by Saturday morning after having considerably deepened.

Ensemble solutions show the low reaching somewhere between 960

and 980 mb. A strong pressure gradient is expected to develop

on the backside of the departing system which should result in

strong westerly winds during the day. Moisture wrapping around

the low in combination with some shortwave energy behind the

departing upper-trough is likely to contribute to the

development of some lingering showers throughout Saturday,

especially in the north, and may continue through Sunday. Some

snow showers may mix in Saturday night depending on how much

cold air is brought in behind the system.

Weak high pressure will likely develop over the area Monday in

response to an approaching upper-level shortwave ridge. This

should lead to mostly dry conditions. Some signal in the

ensemble solutions for another storm sometime mid next week but

too much uncertainty to be more definitive at this time.

&&........

000

WTNT33 KNHC 282341

TCPAT3

 

BULLETIN

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

 

...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...

...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 

HOURS...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Jamaica

* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,

Holguin, and Las Tunas

* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Bermuda

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Haiti

* Cuban province of Camaguey

* Turks and Caicos Islands

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 

somewhere within the warning area.  Residents in Jamaica should 

remain in a safe shelter.  In the warning area in Cuba, residents 

should seek safe shelter immediately.  In the Bahamas, preparations 

to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was 

located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is 

moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn 

toward the northeast is expected later this evening, and a faster 

motion in that direction is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  On 

the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over 

eastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across 

the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach 

Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Melissa is expected to remain a powerful 

hurricane when it moves across Cuba, the Bahamas, and near 

Bermuda. 

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195

miles (315 km).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a 

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

 

WIND: The damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across 

Jamaica, but it is advised to remain in a safe shelter until 

sunrise.

 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba 

later tonight through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions 

are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday.

 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central

Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and

hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on

Wednesday.

 

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday

night.

 

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches

across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24

inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over

mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and

numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night.

 

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is

expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected

over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and

potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

 

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches

is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash

flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3

inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday

night.

 

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is

expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40

inches possible.

 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total

Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

 

STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay,

there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground

level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should

subside later tonight.

 

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast

coast of Cuba through early Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights

could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the

east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge

will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal

flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of

eastern Cuba.

 

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in

the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally

dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

 

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of 

Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the 

next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current 

conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and 

Caicos Islands overnight, and Bermuda later this week. Please 

consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT43 KNHC 282052

TCDAT3

 

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

 

The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with

maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure

near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over

the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some

warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the

initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled

to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information

on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while

Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded

in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to

determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic

hurricanes.

 

The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with

an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this

should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight

or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the

northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and

central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday

night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly

northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope

has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h

since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this

time is also shifted a little to the north and west.

 

While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will 

probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due 

to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level 

wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the

intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before

Melissa reaches Cuba.  After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter

increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual

weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane

strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model

guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical

cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will

continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash

flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight

with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication

outages, and isolated communities.

 

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding

and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern

portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In

Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.

Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

 

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are

expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are

likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter.

 

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:

Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy

rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and

central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and

follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy

rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and

Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

 

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in

Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane

Watch is now in effect.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  28/2100Z 18.5N  77.7W  125 KT 145 MPH

 12H  29/0600Z 19.9N  76.7W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  29/1800Z 22.2N  75.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  30/1800Z 28.9N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 60H  31/0600Z 33.8N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  31/1800Z 39.0N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  01/1800Z 48.4N  42.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  02/1800Z 54.8N  25.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

$$

Forecaster Beven