Pre-Christmas Week Wind & Rain Storm

994

FXUS61 KCAR 172329

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

629 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move through the area this evening. Weak high

pressure builds in through Thursday morning, then slides to the

east Thursday night. A low pressure system passes to our

northwest Friday, followed by another cold front Friday night.

High pressure builds in Saturday with another area of low

pressure passing north of the area on Sunday. High pressure

builds towards the area again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

630 PM Update: Another round of light snow is moving in from the

west at this time, however the cold front responsible for this

precipitation is weak and lacking the support to maintain precip

over the higher terrain. Therefore, any additional snow will be

light if any across the north this evening.

430 PM Update: Snow amounts were increased slightly across the

forecast area as temperatures are running slightly below

previously forecast and the bright band of reflectivity seen on

current KCBW radar is indeed all snow, with larger dendrites

being the primary flake type... a sign of slightly higher SLRs.

Indeed, the 4PM intermediate measurement at KCAR revealed an SLR

of around 17:1. Storm total snow is thus increased to a quarter

of an inch up to around 1 inch in the north, and up to a quarter

of an inch down through the Upper Penobscot valley.

Key message...Possible deteriorating travel conditions this

evening with mixed precipitation changing to light snow across

the north. Minimal accumulation expected.

Previous Discussion:

The cold front passing through this evening will bring a round

of precipitation along and just behind it before high pressure

moves in tomorrow. Current atmospheric profiles show a warm nose

about 3 to 5k feet above the surface, which has been

contributed to mixing precipitation all day. The cold front will

eliminate this warm nose, but before the front, precip may

still be mixed this evening. Precip will not be particularly

heavy, so evaporational cooling is not expected to be a factor,

we will just have to wait for the colder air to move in aloft.

By mid- evening, precipitation should be all snow. QPF values

are light, so less than an inch of snow will fall, even without

any rain mixing in. The colder temperatures may also contribute

to ice forming on roads and other flat surfaces overnight, so

caution is advised for travelers. Other wise, Thursday will be

quiet with a quick visit from high pressure before a stronger

system approaches Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*Key Messages:

1) Strong winds are likely with damaging winds possible Friday,

particularly along the coast where a High Wind Watch remains in

effect. Additional strong winds are likely later Friday night

to Saturday morning, particularly across the north.

2) Rain is expected across the entire area Friday along with

significant snowmelt. Minor flooding is possible.

3) Temperatures fall below freezing Friday night. Northern

areas will see a faster freeze after precipitation ends and

more potential for icy surfaces Saturday morning.

*What Changed:

1) Storm Watch issued for all marine zones Friday.

2) Slight increase in winds further inland towards Bangor and

Interior Downeast Maine.

Friday:

A negatively tilted upper level trough will lead to rapid

deepening of the surface low across central and eastern Quebec

on Friday. Ahead of its cold front, strong moisture transport

will bring PWATs at or around an inch across much of the

forecast area. A period of moderate to heavy rain is expected,

along with areas of fog from high dew points moving across cold

snowpack. Some of the fog may be locally dense. Rainfall amounts

of generally three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half

are anticipated, with significant snowmelt wiping away a

majority of the snowpack for all but far northwestern areas of

Maine. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt could cause

minor flooding, but significant flooding is not anticipated, due

in part to the antecedent drought conditions.

The primary impact is expected to be strong south winds,

especially along the coast through the Bangor region and

Interior Downeast Maine. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for

the coast. Further north, wind advisories will likely be needed

for Southern Penobscot County and the remainder of Hancock and

Washington Counties. There is a chance (20 to 40 percent) that

High Wind Warnings may be required for the Bangor area,

depending on the strength of the low level jet. Coastal flooding

is not expected due to the current tide cycles being low for

the month.

Friday Night to Saturday:

A cold front will move through the area after sunset Friday.

Timing uncertainty remains, but the consensus is for a quick 10

to 15 degree temperature drop with temperatures remaining above

freezing for a period until a secondary front moves through

later during the night and drops temperatures below freezing.

Downeast areas are expected to have more time between the end of

precipitation and sub-freezing temperatures. Depending on the

timing, northern areas may see precipitation end as a brief

period of snow with temperatures falling below freezing. Icy

spots are possible Saturday morning as refreezing occurs. After

a few hours of lower winds, winds will increase again late

Friday night and Saturday morning as the surface low continues

to deepen and the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will be

strongest across the north during this period, and Wind

Advisories may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*Key Messages:

1)A light snow accumulation is likely (60 to 80 percent chance)

Saturday night to Sunday for all areas except the coast.

2)Another period of snow is possible (50 to 60 percent chance)

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Saturday night to Sunday:

Zonal flow sets up for Saturday night into Sunday, leading to

modest warm advection and a return to near normal temperatures.

A warm front crosses the area Saturday night as another weaker

area of low pressure passes north of the area, leading to a

period of light snow away from the coast. Guidance has decreased

QPF with this over the last cycle, so headline level impacts

are unlikely.

Monday to Tuesday Morning:

High pressure builds towards the area Monday and crests across

the area Tuesday morning. An upper level low is forecast to

slowly move away across the Canadian Maritimes with little

impact aside from some cloud cover and possible flurries Monday.

Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and

slightly below average temperatures are anticipated.

Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday/Christmas Eve:

There is general agreement that a moderate to strong shortwave

and clipper system will move through the area Tuesday night into

the morning of Christmas Eve. Snow showers or a period of light

snow is possible, along with a reinforcement of colder air and

below average temperatures for Christmas Eve. The orientation of

the shortwave on most ensemble members suggests limited moisture

availability, so a significant storm is unlikely during this

period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NEAR TERM: VFR for southern terminals through the period. MVFR

conditions for northern terminals, primarily with ceilings this

evening, transitioning to VFR prior to midnight.

SW winds switching to W/NW behind the front. LLWS possible with

frontal passage tonight.

VFR conditions continue through the day on Thursday. Winds

become southerly and gusts will increase to 20 kts by the

evening.

SHORT TERM: Friday: IFR/LIFR with RA and areas of FG. Strong S

winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, except for BGR and

coastal terminals stronger winds 15 to 30 kts with gusts up to

45-50 kts are expected. LLWS likely.

Friday Night to Saturday: Becoming VFR during the evening. WSW

winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30kts in the evening,

shifting WNW and increasing to 20 to 30 kts gusting to around 40

kts later Friday night and Saturday morning. Winds decrease to

10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts Saturday afternoon.

Saturday Night to Sunday: MVFR/IFR with light snow, except rain

at coastal terminals. S winds 5-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts,

shifting WSW Sunday.

Sunday night to Monday: VFR south, MVFR possible north. NW winds

10-15 kts with gusts around 25 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Gale force winds will continue through late tonight,

then drop below SCA conditions. Seas will gradually diminish

this evening. Conditions, both winds and waves, will drop below

small craft levels on Thursday before ramping back up to SCA on

Thursday night and eventually gales/possible storms in the short

term.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds are near certain Friday with

potential (50 to 70 percent chance) for Storm Force wind gusts

Friday afternoon. A Storm Watch has been issued. Winds shift from

the west Friday evening, remaining at gale force through early

Saturday morning before falling below 25 kts Saturday afternoon.

Winds increase again Saturday night, possibly to Gale force,

before decreasing again Sunday night into early next week.

Seas continue to increase Friday, possibly reaching around 16 to

19 feet by Friday evening before diminishing to around 10 feet

on Saturday and 5 to 9 feet Saturday night through Sunday night.

Seas then fall to around 3 to 6 feet early next week before

increasing again mid-week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for

     MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052.

     Storm Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for

     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...AES/LF

Short Term...MWS

Long Term...MWS

Aviation...AES/LF/MWS

Marine...AES/LF/MWS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1247 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

MEZ029-030-180600-

/O.CON.KCAR.HW.A.0001.251219T1300Z-251220T0000Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Including the cities of Perry, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Castine,

Eastport, Cherryfield, Machias, Orland, and Bucksport

1247 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.

  Scattered power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult

  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-182245-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

1245 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North

Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong wind gusts are likely and damaging wind gusts are possible on

Friday and Saturday. The strongest winds for Bangor and Downeast

Maine will be Friday, while northern areas will see the strongest

winds later Friday night and Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

9:55 PM AST Wednesday 17 December 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures, rainfall, and strong winds are expected.

Locations: Nova Scotia.

Potential rainfall: 25 mm or more.

Potential wind gusts: southerly 80 to 100 km/h

Time span: Friday afternoon until Saturday afternoon.

Remarks: Forecast guidance indicates unseasonably warm temperatures, briefly heavy rainfall, and strong southerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h. 

Rainfall combined with melting snow may cause runoff and possible flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. 

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Check transit, ferry, or flight statuses well in advance, as delays or disruptions could occur.

Secure loose outdoor items that could be blown around by wind.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

9:53 PM AST Wednesday 17 December 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures and strong winds are expected.

Locations: Prince Edward Island. 

Potential wind gusts: southerly 80 to 100 km/h.

Time span: Friday afternoon until Saturday afternoon.

Remarks: Forecast guidance indicates strong southerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h. 

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Check transit, ferry, or flight statuses well in advance, as delays or disruptions could occur.

Secure loose outdoor items that could be blown around by wind.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

9:51 PM AST Wednesday 17 December 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures, significant rainfall, and strong winds are expected.

Locations: southern and south-central New Brunswick.

Potential rainfall: 25 mm or more.

Potential wind gusts: southerly 80 to 100 km/h

Time span: Friday afternoon until Saturday afternoon.

Remarks: Forecast guidance indicates unseasonably warm temperatures, with significant rainfall accumulations possible, and strong southerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h. 

Rainfall combined with melting snow may cause significant runoff and possible flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. 

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Check transit, ferry, or flight statuses well in advance, as delays or disruptions could occur.

Ensure gutters and storm drains are clear of snow, ice, and other debris.

Secure loose outdoor items that could be blown around by wind.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County