Latest Drought Information Statement Issued For Northern and Eastern Maine - 11/20/2025

Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine

Valid November 20, 2025

Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME

This product will be updated November 27, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly.  

Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.

Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 

Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates.

The entire state of Maine remains in some level of drought

Rainfall + snowmelt has led to drought improvements statewide

Seasonal transition will occur soon, limiting change to soil and groundwater conditions over the winter

U.S. Drought Monitor

Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine

Percentage of Maine in Drought

D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0%

D1 (Moderate Drought): 28.15%

D2 (Severe Drought): 71.85%

D3 (Extreme Drought): 3.07%

Drought Intensity and Extent:

D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, Northern Piscataquis, Northern & far Southern Aroostook, Southern Penobscot, all of Hancock & Washington counties.

D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & Southern Aroostook, Central & Southern Piscataquis, Central & Northern Penobscot counties.

D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas.

Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4

These images are date specific and need to be downloaded:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png

Recent Change in Drought Intensity

Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S.

Four week drought monitor class change: 

Drought Worsened: North Woods & Northern Aroostook County. 

Drought Improved: Much of Eastern Aroostook, Baxter Region, Central Highlands, Bangor Region & Downeast.

 

No Change: Northern Somerset, Northern Piscataquis and portions of Northern Aroostook counties. 

These images are date specific and need to be downloaded:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png

Precipitation

Increased rainfall + snow over much of the area has resulted in 30 day precip being 100-130% of normal.

Portions of the North Woods & Western Downeast locations including the Greater Bangor area precip has been below normal.

Total precipitation over the past 30 days

Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days

Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center

Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png

Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center

Temperature

Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days

Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days

7 day temperature trends have been  well below normal.

30 day trends are near normal to 2 degrees above normal for most locations.

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png

https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png

Link to National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent

Ground remains thawed under the snowpack.

Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system.

Manually made in GraphiDSS

CAR NOHRSC Database 

Summary of Impacts

Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter

Hydrologic Impacts 

The majority of the monthly streamflows across the service area have returned to “normal” flows over the last 7 days; just a few in Downeast Maine are “below normal”. (USGS)

Lakes & ponds are slowly returning to near normal but most remain below normal.

Continued slight improvements indicated on rivers and streams.

Dry Drinking Water Wells

Dry well reports continue, although reports have slowed, most of these occurring in Bangor Region and Downeast Maine.

Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/

Some improvement has been reported in the last week for groundwater levels in Downeast, Eastern Aroostook and Central Highlands. 

Very little groundwater improvement in western Downeast areas, Bangor region, Baxter region and North Woods. 

Mitigation Actions

Conserve water and follow directions from local officials.

Winter Ice Impacts

Increasing potential of “anchor ice” forming in the rivers & streams due to lower flows.

Ponds/lakes levels low with ice formation exposing rocks posing risk to recreational activities.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts

Recent rainfall & snowmelt has significantly improved 7-day river flows.

Most locations are now at normal or just below normal.

The St. Croix and Eastern Coastal basins are in the “below normal” category. 

USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map 

USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow

https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d

https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me

Agricultural Impacts

Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved and is now at or above normal.

Deeper soil moisture continues to be significantly below normal in the Bangor region, Downeast, Northern Maine and Central Highlands.

Image Captions: 

National Water Model

Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth

Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth

Soil Depth: Surface to ~4”

Soil Depth: Surface to ~39”

Below Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Above Normal

>This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes.

Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif

0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png

10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

Groundwater Impacts

Deep layer moisture continues to be below to much below normal as it takes time for recent events to percolate through the soil.

Drinking water wells continue to be dry, no significant improvements yet.

Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here.

Image Captions: 

USGS Groundwater Gauge Status

Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth

Below Normal

Above Normal

Soil Depth: 

Surface to ~79”

Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif

0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png

10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png

100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

Unsettled but very progressive weather pattern continues into next week. Additional rainfall & snowfall expected to be light. Expect some melting will contribute positively to soil moisture.

Although no significant rainfall events are expected, any precipitation with no significant cold will allow previous moisture to percolate deeper into the soil.

Very little drought designation changes next week as the pattern remains dry.

Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 11/20 8AM to 11/27 8AM

https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png

Rainfall needed to “end the drought”

175-225% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes

Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in,  leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw

Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall at night melting during the day is ideal. Lastly, no rapid cold air outbreaks is ideal.

5-8” of above normal or extra rainfall is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes

Ground frost in Maine can start as early as now in the North and higher elevations, and mid to late December in southern areas on average, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”.

While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system.

Around 8”

Around 10.5”

Around 12”

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current

8 to 14 Day Outlooks

The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

Image Captions: 

Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. 

Valid Nov 27 to Dec 3. 

Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: 

Moderate signal of below normal temperatures expected. 

A weak to moderate signal for wetter than average precipitation (rain or snow).

Possible Impact

This outlook indicates a potential trend toward improving drought conditions. Freeze-up is expected soon and it is unlikely the drought will be over before then.

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png

Long Range Outlooks (December)

The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

Image Captions: 

Left - Climate Prediction Center December Temperature Outlook. 

Right - Climate Prediction Center December Precipitation Outlook.

Valid Nov 20 2025.

Main Takeaways for the Next Month: 

Weak signal for Below Normal temperatures in northern portions of the state. No significant signal for southern areas.

Weak signals of above normal precipitation (snow or rain).

Winter Pattern Outlook

Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. It is likely that there will be some improvement, but not enough to prevent us from going through the winter under some drought conditions.

Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

Main Takeaways

Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across Northern Maine, with some improvements in most locations.

Impacts include, but are not limited to: Dry drinking water wells, low lake/pond and river/stream levels and dried marshlands.

Very little improvement expected over the next 7 days. Indications signal for some improvement to arrive into December but overall will not produce enough to overcome the drought.

8-12 inches of rainfall, roughly 175-225% of normal, is needed between now and when the ground freezes, otherwise drought will linger throughout the winter. 

Accumulating snow can be beneficial to drought by insulating the ground before it has a chance to freeze; plus it stores water that can melt and contribute to groundwater recharge.

The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of long-term drought conditions persisting into the 2025-26 winter.

Contact Information

Web 

www.weather.gov/gyx 

www.weather.gov/car 

Questions? Email 

nws.caribou@noaa.gov 

james.sinko@noaa.gov

Louise.fode@noaa.gov

Required