Extreme Cold Arrives Locally As Potentially Historic Winter Storm Fern Moves Through The Eastern USA

922

FXUS61 KCAR 240204

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

904 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

-Updated aviation discussion.

-Increased confidence in dangerously cold wind chills this

 weekend.

-Increased confidence in a significant winter storm Sunday night

 through Monday night. There has generally been a northern trend

 in the storm track, which brings more snow to Eastern Maine. A

 winter storm watch has been issued from Houlton, Patten, and

 Greenville south to the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frigid arctic air moves in tonight and persists through the

weekend bringing dangerous wind chills.

2) Increased confidence in a significant winter storm to impact

the area Sunday night through Monday night, with the higher

snow totals over southern portions of the area.

3) Remaining colder than average through late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frigid arctic air moves in tonight and persists

through the weekend bringing dangerous wind chills.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Behind the arctic front exiting to our east this evening very

cold air will surge into the area resulting in well below normal

temperatures through the weekend. A pressure gradient between

low pressure moving off to the northeast and high pressure

building in from the west will contribute to gusty winds through

Saturday, contributing to dangerous wind chills. The coldest

wind chills are expected late tonight into Saturday morning as

low as -30 to -40 in the north and -20 to -30 further south.

Temperatures warm slightly during the day on Saturday but may

not get above 0 over northern Maine. Since winds will remain

elevated throughout the day, expect a very cold day with wind

chills not making it above -10 areawide.

Winds relax Saturday night to a light breeze which should contribute

to slightly improved wind chills but temperatures will be a few

degrees colder than tonight due to the reduced mixing. Still, some

uncertainty regarding how light the winds Saturday night will be

which will depend on how quickly the high moves in overhead. Current

thinking is that most areas will not full decouple but places where

there is sheltering from the wind and skies remain clear, such as

river valleys, may see temperatures dip below guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased confidence in a significant winter

storm to impact the area Sunday night through Monday night,

with the higher snow totals over southern portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

We have enough confidence to go ahead and issue a winter storm

watch for southern portions of the area from Sunday night to

Monday night, which covers areas along and south of a

Houlton/Patten/Greenville line. The general model trend had been

shifting the track of the system northward with more snow making

it as far north of our area. Within the last 12-24 hours, model

trend has slowed and seem to be settling into this further north

track. This looks like a prolonged storm, with an elongated

surface low/trough moving east near the southern end of the

Gulf of Maine, and moist upper level southwest flow. We should

easily be far enough north for precipitation type to be all

snow, and the snow will be on the fluffy/low density side, with

snow ratios 15-20:1. Winds will be from the northeast most of

the storm, shifting to the northwest at the end Monday

night. It will be breezy with winds generally 10-15 mph, but not

windy, and think winds will be enough for some patchy blowing

snow but nothing too bad and not approaching blizzard

conditions. Temperatures will be cold through the event, with

readings 0-10 above in the north and 5-15 above Downeast.

Confidence overall is fairly high for the storm still being so

far out. In particular, confidence is high for heavy snow

Downeast, with a very high probability of getting at least 6

inches, and even around a 50 percent chance of getting a foot.

Further north, that`s a tougher call, as any north or south

wobble to the storm track will impact totals for Northern Maine.

While far Northern Maine is likely to see at least an inch,

it`s tougher to say how much more than that there will be. For

the far north, there`s still a possibility of as much as a foot,

but also a good possibility of just 1-3 inches. Please keep in

touch with the latest forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Remaining colder than average through late in

the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Temperatures are very likely to remain well below average

through at least Thursday, with highs somewhere between 5 and 15

above in the north and 10 and 20 above further south. Low

temperatures generally 0 to 15 below. Generally dry Tuesday

through Thursday other than perhaps a few snow showers. More

uncertainty toward Friday though, as some models have a

Nor`easter potentially impacting us. Roughly 75 percent of

solutions have this system staying out to sea with little/no

snow, but a few do have impacts. Some other models have some

light snow moving in from the northeast along with slightly less

cold air from the Canadian maritimes. Something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Local MVFR with any isolated snow showers early tonight.

Otherwise, generally VFR tonight through Saturday night.

West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30

knots tonight through Saturday. West/northwest winds 10 to 15

knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10

knots Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR with light winds.

Sunday Night through Monday Night...Deteriorating to IFR or

worse from SW to NE Sunday night to Monday morning, with snow.

Some question as to whether the IFR can make it to PQI and

points north based on uncertainty in the track of the weather

system. Conditions improve back to MVFR/VFR from W to E late

Monday night. Winds NE 10-15 kts, switching to the NW late

Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with W/NW winds 5-15 kts,

stronger during the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Gales on all waters through tonight, decreasing to SCA

conditions on the inner waters early Saturday then on the outer

waters Saturday afternoon. Below SCA conditions on the inner

waters Saturday night, remaining above SCA criteria on the outer

waters through early Sunday. A period of heavy freezing spray

from around midnight tonight through early Saturday afternoon.

NE to NW gales very likely late Sunday night to Monday night,

eventually decreasing to small craft probably Tuesday afternoon.

Small craft NW winds likely to persist through Wednesday. Light

to moderate freezing spray all the way through Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for

     MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday

     night for MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for

     MEZ015>017-029-030.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for

     ANZ050>052.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/SM

AVIATION...CN/TF/SM

MARINE...TF/SM

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1243 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032-241000-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.A.0001.260126T0000Z-260127T0800Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central

Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Southern

Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Old Town, Medway, Patten, Monson,

Howland, Guilford, Great Pond, Vanceboro, East Millinocket,

Danforth, Springfield, Hodgdon, Calais, Dedham, Princeton,

Amherst, Machias, Bangor, Sherman, Cherryfield, Houlton, Wesley,

Ellsworth, Eastport, Orland, Millinocket, Milo, Bucksport, Bar

Harbor, Smyrna Mills, Blanchard, Lincoln, Aurora, Greenville,

Eastbrook, Orono, Grand Lake Stream, Perry, Brewer,

Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield, and Castine

1243 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 7 and

  15 inches possible, with the highest totals likely being south of

  Millinocket.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The

  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening

  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

TF

10:23 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Winter storm to bring strong winds, blowing snow and significant snowfall on Monday.

Locations: most of Nova Scotia.

Potential snowfall: 15 to 25 cm.

Potential wind gusts: northeasterly 50 to 70 km/h.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A developing winter storm will approach the region on Sunday night. The exact track of the system still remains uncertain, but the potential exists for significant snowfall across most of the province. Strong northeasterly wind gusts will also develop on Monday, leading to reduced visibilities in blowing snow.

A winter storm watch has been issued for southern Nova Scotia.

Snow accumulation may make travel slow or hazardous. Roads and walkways could become slippery and difficult to navigate.

Plan ahead in case schools or scheduled activities are cancelled.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

10:23 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Winter storm to bring strong winds, blowing snow and significant snowfall on Monday.

Locations: most of Nova Scotia.

Potential snowfall: 15 to 25 cm.

Potential wind gusts: northeasterly 50 to 70 km/h.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A developing winter storm will approach the region on Sunday night. The exact track of the system still remains uncertain, but the potential exists for significant snowfall across most of the province. Strong northeasterly wind gusts will also develop on Monday, leading to reduced visibilities in blowing snow.

A winter storm watch has been issued for southern Nova Scotia.

Snow accumulation may make travel slow or hazardous. Roads and walkways could become slippery and difficult to navigate.

Plan ahead in case schools or scheduled activities are cancelled.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

10:21 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Winter storm to possibly bring significant snowfall on Monday.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Potential snowfall: 10 to 20 cm.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A developing winter storm will approach the region on Sunday night. The exact track of the system still remains uncertain, but the potential exists for significant snowfall for parts of the island. Strong northeasterly winds may also develop during the day on Monday, leading to reduced visibilities in blowing snow.

Snow accumulation may make travel slow or hazardous. Roads and walkways could become slippery and difficult to navigate.

Plan ahead in case schools or scheduled activities are cancelled.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

10:19 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Winter storm to possibly bring significant snowfall on Monday.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Potential snowfall: 10 to 20 cm.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A developing winter storm will approach the region on Sunday night. The exact track of the system still remains uncertain, but the potential exists for significant snowfall for parts of southern New Brunswick, especially along the Fundy coast. A slight shift north in the track of the storm could bring higher snowfall accumulations.

Snow accumulation may make travel slow or hazardous. Roads and walkways could become slippery and difficult to navigate.

Plan ahead in case schools or scheduled activities are cancelled.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

10:11 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

A prolonged period of very cold wind chills is expected.

Coldest wind chills: -27 to -33.

Time span: Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

Remarks: A northwesterly flow of arctic air will bring cold conditions to the island starting Saturday morning. Wind chills are expected to begin moderating on Sunday afternoon.

Extreme cold puts everyone at risk.

Dress warmly. Dress in layers that you can remove if you get too warm. The outer layer should be wind resistant.

Cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

10:09 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

A prolonged period of very cold wind chills is expected.

Locations: northern Nova Scotia.

Coldest wind chills: -30 to -34.

Time span: Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

Remarks: A northwesterly flow of arctic air will bring cold conditions to the region starting Saturday morning. Wind chills are expected to begin moderating on Sunday afternoon.

Extreme cold puts everyone at risk.

Dress warmly. Dress in layers that you can remove if you get too warm. The outer layer should be wind resistant.

Cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Information is provided on the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness website at novascotia.ca/nse/environmental-health/staying-warm-in-winter.asp.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

Issued by Environment Canada and the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness

In effect for:

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

10:08 PM AST Friday 23 January 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

A prolonged period of very cold wind chills is expected.

Locations: all of New Brunswick.

Coldest wind chills: -30 to -39, coldest for northwestern areas of the province.

Time span: Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

Remarks: A northwesterly flow of arctic air will bring cold conditions starting Saturday morning. Wind chills are expected to begin moderating on Sunday afternoon.

Extreme cold puts everyone at risk.

Dress warmly. Dress in layers that you can remove if you get too warm. The outer layer should be wind resistant.

Cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County