Tropical storm Cristobal expected to bring heavy rain too Nova Scotia, and offshore gales

WOCN31 CWHX 220000
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 21 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 N AND LONGITUDE 70.3 W... ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 380 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998
MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 PM 37.8N 70.3W 998 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 AM 39.0N 68.7W 996 60 111
JUL 22 9.00 AM 40.5N 66.8W 996 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 PM 41.9N 65.0W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.1N 62.7W 998 55 102 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 3.00 AM 44.1N 60.6W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 45.1N 58.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 45.6N 55.4W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 45.6N 52.6W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 45.0N 50.1W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 44.2N 47.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 43.6N 45.1W 1011 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 41.8N 42.8W 1012 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE AS CRISTOBAL
PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST REGIONS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA BY THE
ATLANTIC STORM PREDITION CENTRE. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND REMAIN OFFSHORE SO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER GEORGES BANK NEAR MIDDAY
ON TUESDAY THEN TRACK TO WESTERN SABLE MARINE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 60 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK. GALES ARE FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
POSITION BASED ON NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACKS AS A PATH OF LEAST REGRET. WE MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF MAX WINDS AT 22/18Z BASED LATEST NHC
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. TRANSITIONING AT
22/18Z AND 23/00Z BASED ON CONCENSUS OF PHASE SPACE FROM CMC NOGAPS
AND HWRF MODELS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
RAINFALL GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO CAPE
COD. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY LIKELY TO RESULT FROM INTERACTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC BAND WITH CRISTOBAL PREFER TO USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH
TO PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THE RADIUS OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TRACK. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT GALES TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. STORMS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/00Z 60 120 60 30 20 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 90 135 60 20 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 120 150 75 10 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 120 150 75 0 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 100 150 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 60 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LATEST CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL NOT GENERATING WAVES AS LARGE AS
THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT 12 M SEAS ARE STILL PREDICTED FROM THE MODEL IN
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS.

END STEEVES/BOWYER/ROUSSEL