Hurricane Bill Pounds Nova Scotia #1

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE'S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE'S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...43.3N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 33 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 231448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

AFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL....JUST BEFORE 1200
UTC...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE
LESS TROPICAL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC. TYPICALLY THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT...ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT. BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.

CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWELLS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 43.3N 64.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 49.0N 49.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 50.8N 37.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 52.5N 26.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 57.0N 8.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH