Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Moving Towards Turks & Caicos and Bahamas Update 1

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 21.2N  67.9W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 22.3N  69.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.8N  71.7W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 27.3N  73.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  75.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 43.5N  66.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  57.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS... 
  

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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