Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 8

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST
SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE
DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A
LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE
IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES.  MODEL FIELDS AND
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. 
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER
EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE
WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  EARL
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 33.8N  74.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 36.2N  73.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 39.5N  70.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 43.9N  66.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 48.4N  61.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF
MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.
 
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA
WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
 
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