Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 9

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.  DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS
LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT
IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z.  THE
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  EARL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  A TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST
EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 35.3N  74.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 37.8N  72.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  68.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 45.9N  64.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 50.7N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN

Warnings

Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
4:43 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Rainfall warning for
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County issued

Rain fall amounts of 40 to 70 millimeters can be expected with the passing of hurricane Earl.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3AM Friday the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east southeast of Cape Hatteras and is moving north northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy could give maximum wind gusts to 90 km/h on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres is expected in the south and southeast regions on Saturday as Earl tracks across the Maritimes.

 8:15 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Wind warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Strong winds with gusts between 90 and a 110 km/h are possible with Earl.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3 AM this morning the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north-northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h.

Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick and Northwestern Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise.

However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia with the arrival of Earl.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.


Yarmouth County
8:15 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Rainfall warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Heavy rainfall accociated with Earl is likely to give amounts above 50 millimetres for the above regions.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

At 3 AM this morning the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 135 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north-northeast at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h.

Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick and Northwestern Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise.

However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia with the arrival of Earl.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.