Remembrance Day Storm Update Two

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011

...SEAN NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...
...AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
CYCLONE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 101432
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH SEAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE...WITH A MORE
COMPACT APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THAN YESTERDAY. DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN THE SAME...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE AROUND 1800 UTC TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL WINDS. SEAN STILL HAS A DAY OR SO OF MARGINAL WATER
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE SHEAR LEFT TO INTENSIFY. SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD NOTABLY INCREASE AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX
HOURS AGO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST.

THE STORM HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING ABOUT 035/6.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING THE CYCLONE PASSING A FAIR
DISTANCE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND
A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH SEAN BECOMING ABSORBED BY THAT FRONT WITHIN
48 HOURS.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SEAN DISSIPATED A LITTLE
FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 30.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 31.8N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 34.7N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
10:49 AM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake continued

Rainfall amounts of up to 100 millimetres by Friday evening.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will move to lie over Hudson Bay by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach the Maritimes tonight. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday. Rainfall amounts up to 100 millimetres are currently forecast for mainland Nova Scotia with locally higher amounts possible along parts of the Atlantic coast. Cape Breton is forecast to receive up to 40 millimetres of rain by Friday evening. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h and up to 120 km/h from the Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence area of Cape Breton. A rainfall warning may be required for Cape Breton with further rainfall amounts possible Friday night however forecast amounts are currently under warning criteria.

Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo
10:45 AM NST Thursday 10 November 2011
Wreckhouse wind warning for
Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo continued

Wind gusts of 140 km/h are expected in the Wreckhouse area on Friday.

This is a warning that potentially hazardous winds are expected in the Wreckhouse area of Southwestern Newfoundland. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A trough of low pressure extending from an intense low pressure system near Hudson's bay will affect Newfoundland on Friday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 90 km/h will develop in the Wreckhouse overnight and will increase to 140 km/h on Friday. Strong wind gusts in the Wreckhouse area are expected to diminish overnight Friday as the wind shifts to southwesterly.

WOCN31 CWHX 101245
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:04 AM AST Thursday
10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Newfoundland
=new= Nova Scotia.

      For tropical storm Sean.

      The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM AST.

      We are currently monitoring tropical storm Sean which is
      Expected to merge with an approaching cold front south of
      Atlantic Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Sean may attain hurricane status today as it moves
northeastward to the west of Bermuda.  A strong cold front is
approaching the storm from the west and is expected to
Quickly absorb it and extract the moisture northward - falling over
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tomorrow.  Current indications are that
the wind circulation of the storm will become indistinct as it
approaches the southern marine forecast district.  We will assess
computer models today and may issue a detailed forecast this
afternoon if we expect the storm circulation to affect the marine
forecast region more directly than is currently indicated.
Regardless, high wind, heavy rainfall and unseasonably warm
temperatures will overspread Atlantic Canada and offshore waters
tomorrow.

Special weather statements and warnings can be found at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/warnings and storm track information at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case).

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY
WOCN14 CWHX 100841
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:41 AM
AST Thursday 10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      New Brunswick.

      Heavy rain expected for southern sections of New Brunswick.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over north Eastern Ontario will move to lie
over Hudsons bay by Friday morning.  A trough extending from the low
will approach New Brunswick this evening.  As the trough approaches
it will absorb moisture from the dissipating tropical storm Sean.
We are currently forecasting rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres
along southern sections of the province.  These amounts are expected
to accumulate beginning this evening until Friday evening.  Higher
amounts could be possible in these regions due to the convective
nature of the airmass.  Please monitor future forecasts and warnings
as there is a chance rainfall warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

End