Tropical storm Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update four

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FXUS61 KCAR 041922
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012.....

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

 .......THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ITS EFFECT ON WHAT WILL THEN BE HURRICANE LESLIE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TROUGH WILL CUTOFF INTO A LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, LESLIE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE LOW`S EASTERN PERIPHERY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE US EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, THOUGH THE 04/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BRINGS IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH SOME RAIN. EVEN IF LESLIE STAYS FAR OUT TO SEA AS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, IT WILL STILL IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA IN TWO WAYS. FIRST, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SECOND, LARGE SWELLS AND HEAVY SURF WILL IMPACT THE MAINE COASTLINE AND COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND TO ANY MARITIME PROPERTY. PERSONS WITH COASTAL OR MARITIME INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION......