Here comes Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm! Part III

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
227 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

MEZ029-030-290800-
/O.CON.KCAR.CF.A.0001.121030T0000Z-121030T0800Z/
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
227 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET COULD LEAD TO
  SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 11 PM MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THIS STORM SURGE COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
  ALONG SEAWALL ROAD...THE DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY AND SEAL HARBOR IN
  HANCOCK COUNTY AS WELL AS IN MACHIAS BAY ALONG US ROUTE 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

VJN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

AS SANDY MOVES ONSHORE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO MIDWEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS.

MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-290800-
/O.NEW.KCAR.FA.A.0003.121030T0000Z-121031T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...
CHURCHILL DAM...MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...EAST MILLINOCKET...
PATTEN...MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...
GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...BANGOR...BREWER...ORONO...OLD TOWN...AMHERST...
AURORA...DEDHAM...EASTBROOK...GREAT POND...ORLAND...DEBLOIS...
GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...PEMBROKE...PERRY...PRINCETON...
DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...GUILFORD...DANFORTH...VANCEBORO...
TOPSFIELD
306 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL
  MAINE...AND SOUTHEAST MAINE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT... NORTHERN PENOBSCOT
  AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT. IN NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...CENTRAL
  PISCATAQUIS...NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS. IN
  NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK. IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...
  CENTRAL WASHINGTON...INTERIOR HANCOCK AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

* RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN
  BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

VJN/PF
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032-290800-
/O.NEW.KCAR.HW.A.0003.121029T1800Z-121030T1200Z/
NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...
BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...
MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...EAST MILLINOCKET...PATTEN...
MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...
GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...GUILFORD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...EAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
  LINES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES AND LOSS OF
  SERVICES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

VJN/PF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

MEZ015>017-029-030-290800-
/O.UPG.KCAR.HW.A.0002.121029T1800Z-121030T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KCAR.HW.W.0001.121029T1800Z-121030T1200Z/
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANGOR...BREWER...ORONO...OLD TOWN...
AMHERST...AURORA...DEDHAM...EASTBROOK...GREAT POND...ORLAND...
DEBLOIS...GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...PEMBROKE...PERRY...
PRINCETON...ELLSWORTH...BAR HARBOR...BLUE HILL...EASTPORT...
MACHIAS...CHERRYFIELD
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...EAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO TREES AND
  POWER LINES POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES AND LOSS
  OF SERVICES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. BE CAUTIOUS IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLE. IN CASE OF POWER OUTAGES...MAKE SURE FLASHLIGHTS HAVE
WORKING BATTERIES.

&&

$$
WOCN31 CWHX 281745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:56 PM ADT Sunday
28 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Nova Scotia
      New Brunswick
      Southern Quebec
      Southern Ontario.

      For hurricane Sandy.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

      Hurricane Sandy to transition to large and dangerous
      Post-tropical cyclone on Monday.  Parts of Maritimes as well as
      Southern Ontario and Quebec will feel some far-reaching effects
      From post-tropical storm Sandy later on Monday and Tuesday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 32.8 north 71.9 west about 440 kilometres southeast of Cape
Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.

Present movement: northeast at 22 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 951 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northeastward well southeast of
Cape Hatteras.  Sandy is forecast to begin moving northward tonight
while maintaining hurricane intensity.  On Monday, Sandy is forecast
to gradually transition into a large and intense post-tropical
cyclone as it turns toward the northwest.  It is possible that this
transition could intensify the storm slightly prior to moving inland
somewhere along the New Jersey coast late Monday night or Tuesday
morning.

It is important to emphasize that impacts from post-tropical Sandy
will extend over a large area well away from the storm center.
Impacts over Canadian territory from Sandy are becoming clearer and
there is less uncertainty with respect to the storm.  The public in
the affected regions should pay close attention to messages from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre, as well as forecasts and possible warnings
from regional storm prediction centres.

Additional information on potential impacts in Ontario and Quebec
Can be found in the wocn11 special weather statement issued by the
Ontario storm prediction centre, and in the wocn10 special weather
statement issued by the Quebec storm prediction centre.

A. Rainfall.

Based on the current forecast scenario, rain from post-tropical Sandy
will not begin to affect Canadian territory until late Monday
Into Tuesday morning.  Rainfall amounts in this area will vary
greatly with location.  Localised areas may see up to 75
Millimetres. Please refer to the wocn11 special weather statement
issued by the Ontario storm prediction centre for more detail on
where the heaviest rain is most likely.

Rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of
20 millimetres likely.  Heavy rain Tuesday into early Wednesday is
expected over parts of the southwestern Maritimes associated with a
band of rain not directly associated with Sandy.  Amounts in these
areas could exceed 50 millimetres.

The precipitation could mix with or change to snow over parts of
South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures
approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm.

The Maritimes will likely see significant rainfall late Monday night
and Tuesday, and possibly lingering into Wednesday, from an evolving
frontal system wrapping around the large upper-level circulation from
post-tropical Sandy.

B. Winds.

Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy
conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h
especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment.
These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted
trees which may result in downed utility lines.  Residual falling
leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways
particularly in urban areas.  This combined with heavy rainfall could
increase the risk of flooding in some areas.

Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western
Quebec.  There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h.
Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially Monday
night.

C. Waves.

Large waves are very likely over portions of the Great Lakes
beginning late Monday and into Tuesday.  High seastates up to 6
metres are likely over Southern Lake Huron.

There will be a risk for large waves and pounding surf along the
Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, especially along the south shore, as
wave activity begins to increase beginning late Monday and peaks on
Tuesday.  These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions
and possibly locally elevated water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds extend several hundred kilometres outward from the
center of Sandy's circulation and are expected to spread to Canadian
waters well in advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline.
The Ontario storm prediction centre has issued gale warnings for many
parts of the Southern Great Lakes for Monday.  The Atlantic storm
prediction centre has issued storm force wind warnings and gale
warnings for western maritime marine waters for Monday as well.

Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the St Lawrence
River during high tide Monday evening and especially Tuesday evening.
This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

WOCN11 CWHX 281854
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 3:54 PM
ADT Sunday 28 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      Queens County
      Shelburne County
      Yarmouth County.

      Large waves and pounding surf associated with hurricane Sandy
      may affect the south shore of Nova Scotia Monday night.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy is currently located about 440 kilometres southeast
of Cape Hatteras and is forecast to track north-northeastward
tonight.  Sandy will gradually transition into a large and intense
post-tropical cyclone on Monday as it turns toward the northwest.
Based on the current forecast Sandy is expected to move inland
somewhere along the New Jersey coast late Monday night or Tuesday
morning.

There will be a risk for large waves along the Atlantic coast of Nova
Scotia especially along the south shore beginning Monday night.
These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions and the
possibility of locally elevated water levels.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
000
WTNT43 KNHC 282056
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 33.4N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 35.0N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 39.5N  74.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  30/1800Z 40.2N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  31/1800Z 42.7N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  01/1800Z 44.7N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 45.6N  71.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
FXUS61 KCAR 282241
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
641 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT
OUR REGION WITH SOME RAIN AND BRISK WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

UPDATE: EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NORTHERN ME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM SANDY CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ONE MORE LAST FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT BEFORE WE START FEELING THE EFFECTS FROM SANDY. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ESPECIALLY THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DON`T EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH WITH ONLY A TENTH OR SO OF RAINFALL. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREA WIDE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTS OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL STORM SANDY. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND, HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING. SANDY IS STILL PROGGED BY THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS NEW JERSEY. AS SHE DOES SO, THE STORM WILL TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL W/THE WIND FIELD SPREADING OUT FROM THE CENTER. SANDY IS A LARGE STORM AND LOOKS TO COVER A GOOD CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH-CENTRAL MAINE. THE THREE MAIN POINTS TO COVER WILL BE MENTIONED BELOW; 1ST...AS STATED ABOVE, WINDS WILL SPREAD OUT FROM THE CENTER STARTING ON MONDAY AS SANDY APCHS THE NEW JERSEY COAST. 925-850MB AN ESE JET OF 55-65+ KTS NOTED ON THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS HITTING THE COAST AND DOWNEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME CROSSING OF THE WIND IS NOTED W/ENE WINDS AT THE SFC. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55+KTS OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST NOTED AND W/RAINFALL PICKING UP IN INTENSITY, THESE WINDS COULD EASILY GET TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC. HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING 2 PM TUESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST(INCLUDING BANGOR) TO THE COAST. SOME CONCERN THAT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COULD SEE GUSTS HITTING CLOSE TO 50 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WINDS WILL BE LESS. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WEAKENS HOWEVER GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. 2ND...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY AS EASTERLY FETCH W/BUILDING WAVES WILL LEAD TO OVERWASH TO SUCH AREAS SUCH AS SEAWALL ROAD IN HANCOCK COUNTY AND ACADIA NAT`L PARK. THE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGH TIDE AT 11 PM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WATER LEVELS AT OR JUST BELOW THE HIGH MARK OF 14.0 FT AT BAR HARBOR WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. CONCERN IS THERE AS WELL FOR THE MACHIAS AREA. 3RD...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE THERE AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO LIGHTER RAIN AND SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER AND COASTAL ZONES. WE ARE EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER A 36 HRS PERIOD BEGINNING LATE MONDAY W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE AREAS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: WHAT APPEARS TO BE WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND WILL TRAVERSE W TO E ACROSS THE FA TUE NGT WITH SIG QPF. FOR 6HR TOTALS...WE TOOK A BLEND OF OPNL MODEL... GMOS...SREF AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF THE TMG OF THE RN BAND FROM THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. OTHERWISE...MOST ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER TO SHWRS ACROSS THE FA BY WED AFTN WITH LESSER QPF TOTALS DURG THIS PD. REGARDING WIND...WE INCLUDE SOME HIGHER COASTAL AND HIGHER TRRN WINDS BEGINNING ERLY TUE EVE...THEN SLOWLY TAPER WINDS OFF LATER TUE NGT THRU WED AS THE WARM OCCLUSION MOVES THRU AND E OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD...SPCLY FOR OVRNGT LOWS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE SUB-TROPICAL MARITIME AIR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW REPRESENTING THE REMNANTS OF SANDY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND ADVECT TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMID AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH NW WINDS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY PULL OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS...WIDESPREAD STRATOCU FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS EXCEPT A FEW BREAKS DOWN EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO WEST AND MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 1000 FT LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM SANDY STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MONDAY RIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF SANDY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DURING WHICH TIME LLWS WILL ALSO BE A BIG CONCERN AS A STRONG ESE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL STEADILY BUILD OVERNIGHT AS SANDY MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. GUSTS TO OF 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT CAN BE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS SANDY APPROACHES THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. BY EVENING EXPECT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF WAVES, USED A BLEND OF THE SWAN NAM WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TO SLOW TO BRING THE SEAS UP. THE THINKING IS STILL FOR SEAS OF 20 TO 24 FEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TUESDAY, NEVERTHELESS, SEAS WELL ABOVE SCA LEVELS IN THE 12 TO 14 FOOT RANGE WILL BE LIKELY EVEN BY LATE DAY TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/OKULSKI SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...HASTINGS/OKULSKI MARINE...HASTINGS/OKULSKI/FITZSIMMONS