Tropical Storm Joaquin a Potential Long Term Threat to the Region

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290237
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with the depression has increased and become better
organized during the past several hours.  In addition, the low-level
center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it
was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value,
making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin.  This intensity analysis
also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today
that showed winds just under tropical-storm force.

The center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last
several hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward
overnight.  This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple
of days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm.
After that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern
United States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and
accelerate.  There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due
to the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward
turn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough.  In
general, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first
couple of days and then westward after that time.  The official
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional
southward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent
advisories.

Northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the
southeast of the center.  The shear is expected to lessen some
during the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water
and high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to
strengthen.  The official intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at
days 3-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 26.7N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/1200Z 26.9N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 27.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 27.2N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 27.4N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 28.6N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  03/0000Z 32.4N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 38.0N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
FXUS61 KCAR 290120
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
920 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER...THAT IS GOING TO
COME TO END. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER QUEBEC
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE GULF OF MAINE OPENS UP WITH ON-
SHORE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING
TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IN PLACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH
WOODS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AMPLE
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WITH HIGH ANOMALY PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME
YEAR. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
RAIN AREA FOR LAST SEVERAL RUNS. FOR THIS PERIOD SO HAVE BLENDED
TWO MODELS. WILL USE HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR AREAS WITH THE HIGHS
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR THIS AREA
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
OFFSHORE CAPE COD, AND MOST OF THE RAIN LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AT THAT TIME, AS WELL. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL DICTATE THE RAIN CHANCES, AND AT THIS TIME THERE IS FAIRLY
LARGE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE KEY PROBLEM IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DETERMINING WHAT HAPPENS WITH TD ELEVEN
CURRENTLY BTWN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. MOST MODELS AGREE ON VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, BUT WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN
A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US,
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE TRACK AND SPEED OF TD ELEVEN.

FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NHC, WHO SHOW ELEVEN BECOMING POST-TROPICAL
OFFSHORE NJ BY FRI AM, HIGHER POPS WERE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA SAT
AND SUN IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS MOVING
UP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE SUPERBLEND SHOWED THIS IN GENERAL,
AND POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM THERE, TWEAKED TOWARD THE GFS.
HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INCREASED POPS AND ANY
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS IS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&
10:13 PM ADT Monday 28 September 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Fredericton and Southern York County

There is potential for a significant rainfall event starting mid-week.
A slow moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday night and could draw in some tropical moisture associated with a system off the Eastern Seaboard. This scenario would have rain developing Wednesday morning over northern areas and spreading southward throughout Wednesday with the potential for very heavy downpours Wednesday night and Thursday. There remains some uncertainty as the timing and interaction of the front and moisture will be key, but the long range models suggest 100 millimetres or more for the event.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.