Erin almost here

023
WTNT41 KNHC 290238
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new
convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation
over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time
as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial
intensity for this advisory.

Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it
remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should
merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical
transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to
baroclinic processes.

Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and
continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday.  The updated NHC track forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 35.6N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 38.0N  70.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0000Z 42.4N  66.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 47.3N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

9:42 PM ADT Wednesday 28 August 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Grand Lake and Queens County
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Rain, heavy at times, is forecast to begin over western New Brunswick tonight and spread to the east by Thursday morning as a trough of low pressure draws in moisture from Tropical Depression Erin. Total rainfall amounts may exceed 60 mm in areas of heaviest rain by the time it comes to an end late Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

FXCN31 CWHX 290000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.55 PM ADT
Wednesday 28 August 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, tropical depression Erin was located near latitude
34.9 N and longitude 72.6 W, about 146 nautical miles or 271 km east
of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 30 knots
(56 km/h) and central pressure at 1003 MB. Erin is moving
north-northeast at 17 knots (31 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Aug 28  9.00 PM  34.9N  72.6W  1003   30   56
Aug 29  9.00 AM  39.1N  69.8W  1003   30   56
Aug 29  9.00 PM  43.2N  66.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 30  9.00 AM  47.4N  62.3W   999   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 30  9.00 PM  52.0N  58.2W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Aug 31  9.00 AM  56.3N  54.2W  1003   30   56 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Erin has weakened again to a tropical depression, with its low-level
circulation now completely exposed and speeding out ahead of what
convection was feeding it yesterday. It is gradually accelerating
northward and starting to turn slightly to the east. Intensity is
held at 30 knots. Erin is now moving north-northeast at about 17 kts.

B. Prognostic

Since Erin has moved away from any reasonable chance for convective
development, there is little chance of development before it gets
caught up in the southerly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough
appraching from the Eastern United States. Phase space guidance from
most models indicate extra-tropical transition should be fairly rapid
and the system should be fully transitioned to post-tropical by the
time it moves into Canadian waters later on Thursday. The latest CHC
track has been nudged northward again as per the recent model
consensus, which should take what's left of the center of
post-tropical Erin somewhere over Nova Scotia Thursday and into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence on Friday. It will move east of Labrador and
away on Saturday.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
29/00Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
29/12Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/00Z  110 110  30   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/12Z  120 120  45   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/00Z  120 120  55   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/12Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/BORGEL/MERCER

8:48 PM ADT Wednesday 28 August 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Depression Erin.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Tropical Depression Erin is tracking northeastward toward the Maritimes. Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical system well before it reaches southwestern Nova Scotia later Thursday evening. Erin will bring heavy rain to much of the region beginning Thursday and strong, gusty winds with its passage Thursday night into Friday morning.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 34.9 North 72.6 West.

About distance 270 kilometres east of Cape Hatteras NC.

Maximum sustained winds: 56 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northeast at 33 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical Depression Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical system by the time it enters Canadian waters on Thursday. Rain associated with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will spread over the western Maritimes early Thursday morning. As Erin approaches later on Thursday, some of its moisture will feed into this trough and likely enhance the rain intensity associated with it. The heavier rain and strongest winds associated directly with post-tropical Erin should reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later Thursday evening.

a. Wind.

Some gusty winds will likely accompany post-tropical Erin, especially to those areas just to the right of its track early Friday morning. At this time it is not expected that these winds will reach warning criteria (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.

b. Rainfall.

The combination of Post-Tropical Erin and its interaction with the trough of low pressure crossing the region on Thursday will combine to produce significant rainfall. Rainfall will likely meet or exceed warning criteria (50 mm or more in 24 hours) in parts of the Maritimes, especially those areas just north and west of Erin's track. Some isolated locations in these areas could possibly see total rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm before the rain ends later Friday morning.

c. Surge/Waves.

At this time, warning level storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not expected. After midnight into Friday morning, waves near 4 metres will spread from west to east along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia and will break higher along the beaches. Rip currents will also be an issue, and the public should exercise caution near the coast.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect for the southwestern Maritimes marine waters, where gale force southerlies up to 35 knots are expected by Thursday evening. These gale warnings will likely be extended to adjacent marine areas for Friday near and along Erin's path through Canadian waters.

Forecaster(s): Borgel/Mercer

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Caribou ME
349 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

MEZ005-006-010-290400-
/O.EXA.KCAR.FF.A.0001.190829T0000Z-190829T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-
Including the cities of Millinocket, East Millinocket, Patten,
Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Greenville,
Monson, and Blanchard
349 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Caribou has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Central Highlands
  Maine and Far Eastern Maine, including the following areas, in
  Central Highlands Maine, Central Piscataquis and Northern
  Penobscot. In Far Eastern Maine, Southeast Aroostook.

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning

* Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is likely to fall later tonight
  through Thursday morning. There is the potential for some higher
  amounts of 3 inches especially across the higher terrain. This
  heavy rainfall could result in some flash flooding, especially
  in the higher terrain. More widespread minor lowland flooding is
  probable, especially in poor drainage and urbanized areas.

* The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall between midnight and
  daybreak Thursday. Rainfall amounts will likely vary
  considerably across the region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
$$