Hurricane Dorian (Category Two) moves North Update Two

FXCN31 CWHX 041800
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.45 PM ADT
Wednesday 04 September 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT, hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 30.1 N and
longitude 79.8 W, about 101 nautical miles or 186 km east-southeast
of Jacksonville. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 knots
(167 km/h) and central pressure at 964 MB. Dorian is moving
north-northwest at 8 knots (15 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  3.00 PM  30.1N  79.8W   964   90  167
Sep 05  3.00 AM  31.4N  79.9W   966   90  167
Sep 05  3.00 PM  32.5N  79.2W   970   85  157
Sep 06  3.00 AM  34.0N  77.5W   970   85  157
Sep 06  3.00 PM  36.1N  74.5W   970   85  157
Sep 07  3.00 AM  38.7N  70.4W   964   80  148
Sep 07  3.00 PM  41.9N  66.1W   960   75  139
Sep 08  3.00 AM  45.7N  61.5W   960   70  130
Sep 08  3.00 PM  49.5N  56.1W   967   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  53.3N  49.7W   975   65  120 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Hurricane Dorian has started to pick up speed as it continues to
track nearly parallel to the Florida coast. The satellite signature
surrounding the eyewall has been looking more impressive over the
last few hours. However, the latest hurricane aircraft reconnaissance
flight has found little change in intensity. Therefore, the intensity
is held at 90 knots with the storm moving in a north-northwesterly
drection of 8 knots. Given that Dorian is expected to remain in a
favourable environment under light to moderate wind shear and warm
sea surface temperatures, the intensity is not expected to change
much over the next day or so.

B. Prognostic

Hurricane Dorian is expected to continue along the western
sub-tropical ridge and then begin recurving to the northeast,
possibly skirting the south and North Carolina coastlines before
moving offshore of Cape Hatteras on Friday. Dorian is then expected
to increase its forward speed as the storm gets picked up in the
westerlies ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving over the eastern us
on Friday. Track guidance indicates that the system will move off to
the northeast into the Canadian maritime waters on Saturday morning,
and tracking near or south of Nova Scotia Saturday night and through
Newfoundland on Sunday. The storm is expected to become post-tropical
as it crosses Newfoundland.

Track guidance has been relatively consistent for the trajectory of
Dorian, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forward speed
and intensity as it tracks off the North Carolina coast and
approaches Atlantic Canada.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
04/18Z  155 135 100 135   100  75  60  90    60  45  40  50
05/06Z  160 140 100 120    90  75  60  80    60  50  40  50
05/18Z  160 150 105 105    80  80  60  65    55  50  40  50
06/06Z  160 160 115  95    80  80  60  65    50  50  40  50
06/18Z  175 170 135 110    85  85  65  75    50  50  40  50
07/06Z  205 190 165 150    95  95  75  80    50  50  40  50
07/18Z  220 200 180 170   100 100  80  80    70  50  10  30
08/06Z  220 200 180 170   100 100  80  80    70  50  10  30
08/18Z  210 150 100 120   120  90  30  60    70  50  10  30
09/06Z  210 150 100 120   120  90  30  60    70  50  10  30

END/MERCER/MCARTHUR

2:35 PM ADT Wednesday 04 September 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Eagle River
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Dorian.

The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to move into Atlantic Canada this
weekend.

1. Summary of basic information at 03:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 30.1 North 79.8 West.

About 186 kilometres east-southeast of Jacksonville.

Maximum sustained winds: 167 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: north-northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

High winds and rainfall will be the major impacts, especially for the southern Maritimes and Newfoundland. There will also be high waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Finally, there is a chance that storm surge may affect parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

a. Wind.

Most regions will see some tropical storm force winds, and south of the forecast track winds should reach hurricane force. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, there is the possibility of hurricane force northwesterlies behind the storm. Wind impacts may be enhanced by foliage on the trees, and may cause power outages.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Dorian's track. This suggests highest rainfall amounts are likely for the southern Maritimes and parts of Newfoundland, but some rain is likely over most regions. Amounts in excess of 50 mm are possible north and west of Dorian, and localised amounts near 100 mm are possible, especially for Nova Scotia.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Waves will reach southwestern Nova Scotia on Saturday and build to near 10 metres over eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night. These waves will reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning. Waves near or higher than 5 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along the coast, and rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution. Storm surge is possible, mainly for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but it is too early to be specific about impacts.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Hurricane Dorian moves into our waters, there is a reasonable chance of hurricane force winds near and south of the track, mainly over the southern Atlantic forecast waters. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies may develop behind the storm. Waves in excess of 12 metres are likely to develop south of the storm track, beginning late Saturday over southwestern waters and approaching southern Newfoundland Sunday morning.

Forecasters: Mercer, McArthur.

000
FXUS61 KCAR 041720
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
120 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into this
evening. High pressure will build across the area Thursday into
Friday. Dorian will track south of the Gulf of Maine Friday
night into Saturday. High pressure will build toward the region
Sunday......

.....LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High pressure will move northeast away from the region Friday
night with increasing high clouds expected as Hurricane Dorian
lifts northeast across the western Atlantic. Dorian will
continue to lift northeast to the south of Nova Scotia by later
Saturday afternoon. This will bring increasing clouds and the
chance for some light rain or showers, mainly across downeast
areas on Saturday. The biggest impacts will be increasing surf
along the Downeast coast. The remnants of Dorian will continue
to pull away toward Labrador/NewFoundland on Sunday. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track
information on Dorian.....

615
WTNT45 KNHC 041458
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data.  However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb.  The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.

The initial motion is now 335/8.  Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h.  This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life.  The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h.  As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast.  After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend.  Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center.  Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds.  Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rain impacts along
portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay
continues to increase. Residents in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas,
where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 29.8N  79.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 30.8N  80.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 31.9N  79.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 33.1N  78.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 34.8N  76.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 39.9N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 47.5N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 55.0N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven