Friday, October 11, 2019

Subtropical Storm Melissa forms near Southern New England, could impact the Region

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport,
Castine, Eastport, Machias, and Cherryfield
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019


* SURF HEIGHT...5 to 8 feet.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will make
  for hazardous surf conditions. Minor wash up is possible on low
  lying roadways near waters edge within plus or minus one hour of
  high tide.

* RIP CURRENTS...Are powerful channels of water flowing quickly
  away from shore. Heed the advice of lifeguards. Pay attention
  to flags and posted signs.

* HIGH SURF...Large waves can present a danger to people on
  rocks above the water. Stay away from rock outcrops along the
  shoreline exposed to ocean waves can easily sweep
  people into the cold ocean water.


A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In
The Advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach



3:49 PM ADT Friday 11 October 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Rain and strong winds beginning this evening and continuing into Saturday...

Rain will spread eastward tonight to reach Cape Breton by Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm are expected for much of Nova Scotia by Saturday evening, with some areas along the Atlantic coast possibly reaching or exceeding 50 mm.

Along with the rain, strong easterly winds gusting to 80 km/h along the coast in the southwest will spread into eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning. Rough and pounding surf will also impact parts of the Atlantic coast tonight then diminish by Saturday evening.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

WTNT44 KNHC 111452

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Convection increased near the center of the nor'easter centered
southeast of New England overnight. First-light visible satellite
imagery briefly showed an eye-like feature before the convection
around the immediate center began to weaken. However, a large
convective band still persists over the northern semicircle, and
this structure indicated the system has transitioned to a
subtropical cyclone. The latest Hebert-Poteat classification from
TAFB indicates an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this is also
supported by an earlier scatterometer overpass showing a large area
of winds near 50 kt in the northwest quadrant.

Melissa is currently located underneath an upper-level trough,
resulting in a light shear environment. This trough will begin to
lift northeastward later today, and strong upper-level westerlies
should begin to affect the storm by tonight. This pattern is
expected to cause a weakening trend, and Melissa is forecast to
become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is
then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

Melissa is currently embedded in weak steering flow under the upper-
level trough, and little net motion is expected today. Later
tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing
the upper Midwest will begin to force an east-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed. This motion will continue until
the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast is
closest to the ECMWF ensemble mean.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the
central Atlantic that are not included in the wind radii, since they
are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. While the nor'easter centered southeast of New England has become
Subtropical Storm Melissa, the expected magnitude of wind and
coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from
the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed.
For information on these hazards, see products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices at

2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away
from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease
in wind and coastal flooding impacts.


INIT  11/1500Z 38.5N  69.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 38.2N  69.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 39.0N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  13/1200Z 39.9N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/1200Z 41.3N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  15/1200Z...ABSORBED

Forecaster Latto


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