Tropical Storm Fay Moves Through New York City

581
WTNT31 KNHC 110231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East
Rockaway, New York.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West.  Fay is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northward to
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight,
then across western New England into southeastern Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves
farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post-
tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
over water to the southeast of the center. 

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and
portions of New England.  This rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur.  Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor
flooding is possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New
Jersey.  A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt.  The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and
become post-tropical on Saturday.  After that, the system is
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system
over southeastern Canada.  The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes.  The
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial
position and motion.  The new forecast lies close to the consensus
models.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now
occurring well away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor
drainage.  Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread
river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most
of Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 41.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven