Hurricane Isaias (Cat 1) Nears Landfall In The Carolinas

000

WTNT44 KNHC 040300

TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a 

hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite 

imagery.  The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the 

east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by 

the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75 

kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is 

expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude 

southwesterly flow.  This should bring the center onshore in 

southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the 

mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday 

night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.

Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should 

weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern 

United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along 

the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 

24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the

Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed

by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of

northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including

portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these

areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of 

the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through 

tonight and early tomorrow morning.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm

force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic

coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later 

tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power 

outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across 

New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will

result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant

in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through

Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible

across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-

responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor

river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 33.8N  78.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  04/1200Z 37.0N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 24H  05/0000Z 42.0N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 36H  05/1200Z 46.8N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  06/0000Z 50.8N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  06/1200Z 52.9N  66.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Beven

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Gray ME

1054 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MEZ007>009-012-013-NHZ001>009-011-015-041100-

/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0002.200804T1800Z-200805T1000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-

Southern Franklin-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-

Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-

Merrimack-Belknap-Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-

Including the cities of Albany, Peterborough, Upton, Phillips, Sugar

Hill, Brookfield, Kingfield, Cornish, Milford, Jay, Avon,

Charlestown, Pittston Farm, Wakefield, Newport, Woodstock, New

Sharon, Keene, Goshen, Chatham, Gilsum, Sullivan, Conway, Andover,

Ossipee, Milan, Waterville Valley, Rangeley, Jackson, Wilton,

Wilsons Mills, Byron, Unity, Crawford Notch, Norway, Grantham,

Wolfeboro, Claremont, Moosehead, Berlin, Weare, Jackman, Hooksett,

Long Pond, Seboomook, Oquossoc, Locke Mills, North Conway, Davis,

Mont Vernon, Holderness, Amherst, York Pond, Dummer, Brassua,

Lancaster, Middle Dam, Thornton, Bryant Pond, Fryeburg,

Moultonborough, Temple, Bingham, Bethel, Littleton, Colebrook,

Dunbarton, Lincoln, Bridgewater, Roxbury, Meredith, Errol, Laconia,

Marlow, Canterbury, Tuftonboro, Lempster, Coburn Gore, New Vineyard,

Concord, Lebanon, Chesterville, Croydon, Bethlehem, New Portland,

Rumford, Sharon, Farmington, Lyme, Goffstown, Rumney, Millsfield,

Jaffrey, Loudon, Boscawen, Oxford, Milton, Hanover, Newry, Hollis,

Plymouth, Ashland, South Arm, Surry, Gilford, and Ellsworth

1054 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Maine and New Hampshire, including the following

  areas, in Maine, Central Somerset, Northern Franklin, Northern

  Oxford, Southern Franklin and Southern Oxford. In New Hampshire,

  Belknap, Cheshire, Merrimack, Northern Carroll, Northern Coos,

  Northern Grafton, Southern Carroll, Southern Coos, Southern

  Grafton, Sullivan and Western And Central Hillsborough.

* From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is

  expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The

  expected heavy rainfall rates have the potential to cause

  localized flash flooding.

* Localized sharp rises on streams and rivers are expected. Flash

  flooding may occur in complex terrain and poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may developed that lead to

flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You

should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should

flash flood warnings be issues.

&&

$$

Legro

9:07 PM ADT Monday 03 August 2020

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Québec - south:

Amqui - Matapédia Valley

Beauce

Charlevoix

Eastern Townships

Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé

Gaspésie National Park - Murdochville

Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup - Trois-Pistoles

Matane

Montmagny - L'Islet

New Carlisle - Chandler

Québec

Restigouche - Bonaventure

Rimouski - Mont-Joli

Sainte-Anne-des-Monts - Grande-Vallée

Témiscouata

For Hurricane Isaias.

The next information statement will be issued by 02:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday.

1. Summary of basic information at 8:00 p.m. EDT.

Location: 32.8 North 79.0 West.

About 100 kilometres south of Myrtle Beach, SC.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: north-northeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 988 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs). Isaias is expected to approach Quebec and New Brunswick through Maine Tuesday night into Wednesday. The most likely impacts for Canada will be the potential for heavy rainfall in southern and eastern parts of Quebec and moderate gusty winds.

a. Wind.

Southerly winds gusting to 60 km/h are possible over New Brunswick and parts of Quebec including the Gaspe region.

b. Rainfall.

A brief period of heavy rain is likely over parts of southern Quebec early Wednesday. The eastern Townships northward to the Quebec City area is most likely to be affected with up to 60 mm. The rain will fall over a short period of time (2-3 hours) therefore some minor flooding may occur in prone locations.

c. Surge/Waves.

Nothing significant expected. Waves of 2-3 m along the southwestern portion of New Brunswick are expected Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Marginal gale-force winds can be expected over westernmost Maritime marine regions including the mouth of the St. Lawrence River Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Hatt

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 27A

National Weather Service Gray ME  AL092020

931 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MEZ019-040945-

/O.CON.KGYX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

Central Interior Cumberland-

931 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Gray

    - New Gloucester

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58

      to 73 mph

        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical

          storm force.

        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property

          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for

          significant wind damage.

        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with

          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few

          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door

          failures. Mobile homes are damaged, especially if

          unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous

          projectiles.

        - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted, leading to downed

          power lines.

        - Many roads are impassable from debris, caused by downed

          trees and power lines. Many bridges, causeways, and access

          routes impassable.

        - Numerous power and communications outages likely.

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: around 1 inch

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

      localized flooding rain

        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from

          the previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

          localized flooding from heavy rain.

        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

          vulnerable to flooding.

        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.

        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter

          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may

          become swollen and overflow in spots.

        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in

          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding

          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor

          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds

          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and

          bridge closures.

* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few

      tornadoes

        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the

          previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a

          few tornadoes.

        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to

          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before

          hazardous weather arrives.

        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter

          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the

          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.

        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with

          power and communications disruptions.

        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,

          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or

          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,

          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown

          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

$$

000

FXUS61 KCAR 040058 AAA

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Caribou ME

858 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will cross the region tonight. Isaias will

approach Tuesday night then track northeast across western

Maine Wednesday. An upper low will track north of the region

Thursday. High pressure will build across the area Friday into

Saturday.

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 27

National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL092020

519 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MEZ006-040530-

/O.CON.KCAR.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

Southeast Aroostook-

519 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020.....

Previous discussion:

An isolated shower is possible across the north and mountains

this evening. Otherwise, high pressure will cross the region

tonight with generally partly cloudy skies. However, clouds

could increase across western areas late along with a slight

chance of rain. Patchy fog is also possible late. Clouds will

increase Tuesday. Moisture in advance of Isaias will begin to

increase across the forecast area Tuesday. Rain chances will

increase, from west to east, Tuesday. Could also have the slight

chance of afternoon thunderstorms across western areas. Low

temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 60

north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. High temperatures

Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s north, to the

upper 70s to around 80 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Tropical system Isaias is forecast to track northeast Tuesday

night to a position along the northwest Maine/Quebec border by

Wednesday morning. (Please continue to refer to the latest NHC

forecast for the latest information on the track of Isaias).

Based on the more westward track, our forecast QPF was adjusted to

show less in the way of rainfall across Downeast Maine, and somewhat

higher amounts across the central Maine Highlands and North Maine

Woods Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Expect rain to overspread the region Tuesday evening, especially

Western areas and continue overnight Tuesday. There will also be

the slight chance of a thunderstorm Tuesday night. The rain may

be locally heavy at times later Tuesday night, especially

across Western sections, and the higher terrain of the central

Maine Highlands. Tuesday night will be a muggy night with lows

only in the mid 60s most areas.

The remnants of Isaias will move quickly to the north of the

region early Wednesday with rainfall quickly diminishing across

northern sections.

Conditions will improve later Wednesday but there will continue to

be the chance for an afternoon shower or stray thunderstorm

Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will range from the the

upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

The remnants of tropical storm Isaias will be lifting north of our

area and combining with an upper low over Quebec Wednesday night as

drier air circulating beneath the combined lows flows into our

region. This will bring clearing Wednesday night followed by a

mostly sunny and seasonably comfortable day Thursday as some cooler

and drier air continues into the region south of the low. High

pressure building into the area will bring a clear and cool night

Thursday night followed by a sunny and tranquil day on Friday. As we

go into the weekend an upper ridge will build over the area as a

broad area of high pressure remains at the surface. This will bring

a continuation of dry and tranquil weather with temperatures pushing

into the low to mid 80s Saturday then the mid to upper 80s Sunday.

The upper ridge will remain over the region on Monday as surface

high pressure begins to slide east of the region. This will produce

a light southerly breeze Monday with a bit of an increase in

humidity and a continued mostly sunny sky......

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Houlton

    - Island Falls

    - Hodgdon

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39

      to 57 mph

        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the

          previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm

          force.

        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be

          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind

          damage.

        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored

          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or

          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees

          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown

          over.

        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within

          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving

          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.

        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Around 1 inch

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little or no

      potential for flooding rain

        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from

          the previous assessment.

        - PLAN: There is little or no potential for flooding rain.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations are needed to protect

          against flooding rain at this time.

        - ACT: Monitor for changes to the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from flooding rain.

* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the

          previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

          with gusty winds may still occur.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

          tornado situation.

        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - http://maine.gov/mema/weather/hurricane.shtml