Saturday, June 19, 2021

Tropical Storm Claudette Forms Then Quickly Makes Landfall In Louisiana































000
WTNT33 KNHC 191438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 89.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and 
Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, and for
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the
southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette
was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 89.7 West. Claudette
is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn 
toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion 
toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday.  On the forecast 
track, the system should move farther inland across portions of 
southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic 
Ocean on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical 
depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a 
tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday 
night or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions
of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida 
Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and 
small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to 
isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern
Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in 
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 
inches.  Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river 
flooding impacts are possible.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...1-2 ft
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft

Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area for a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest
Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was
located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.7 West. 
Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 
km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a 
turn toward the east-northeast expected by tonight or Sunday.  On 
the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over 
Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions 
of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and 
over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 
tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.  The system 
is forecast to re-develop over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, 
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions 
of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts 
are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far 
western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, 
urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed 
minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the 
remainder of the Central Gulf Coast. 

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy 
rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern 
Georgia, into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall 
totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. 
Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts 
are possible. 
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area today.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across 
southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida 
Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...CLAUDETTE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 90.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the 
southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was 
located inland near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 90.1 West. 
Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 
km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed 
by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana 
during the next few hours, then move across portions of the 
southeastern states later today and Sunday, and over the western 
Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by
tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.  The system is
forecast to become a tropical storm again over the western Atlantic 
Ocean on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
east of the center.  A National Ocean Service station on Petit Bois 
Island, Mississippi, recently reported maximum winds of 39 mph (63 
km/h) with a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts
are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far
western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash,
urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed
minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the
remainder of the Central Gulf Coast.
 
As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern
Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in 
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river 
flooding impacts are possible.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area today.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida
Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN

214 
WTNT43 KNHC 191439
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located
over southern Mississippi.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms
are still located on the storm's east side and extend across
portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.  Based
on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be
35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the
warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt.  A turn
to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an
east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in
the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge.  This
motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S.
during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic
and toward Atlantic Canada early next week.  The models are in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.  This forecast is very similar to
the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range
forecast times.

In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and 
Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today.  In 
36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show 
Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the 
Carolinas Sunday night and Monday.  This predicted strengthening is 
likely due in part to baroclinic processes.  The ECMWF model is the 
most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing 
Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the 
center is located over eastern North Carolina.  Once the system 
moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast 
to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic 
Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the 
previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon.
Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue
through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading
northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.

2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of
the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.  These winds will continue
for a few more hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 31.0N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/0000Z 32.0N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 32.9N  85.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0000Z 33.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1200Z 35.0N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  22/0000Z 37.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  22/1200Z 40.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 49.5N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has 
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be 
considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.
 
Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt.  The storm
should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.  
The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the 
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system 
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 
72 hours.  Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one 
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western 
Atlantic Ocean.  The new intensity forecast is more conservative 
than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. 
 Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.
 
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.  Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and 
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and 
Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the 
afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, 
will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, 
with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions 
of the Southeast.  
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.  These
winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 29.6N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/1800Z 30.9N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0600Z 32.2N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1800Z 33.3N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  21/0600Z 34.2N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  21/1800Z 35.8N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  22/0600Z 38.5N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 96H  23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN

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