Elsa Regains Hurricane Status (Category One) As It Nears A Western Florida Landfall

000

FXUS61 KCAR 070325

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1125 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the region overnight and stall offshore

Wednesday into Thursday while low pressure approaches. Low

pressure will pass south of the area Friday and pull away from

the region Saturday along with the remains of Elsa. High

pressure will build into the area from the west on Sunday.....

......SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Downeast areas, closer to an offshore stalled front, will have

sct shwrs ovrngt Wed, while Nrn areas experience partial clrg

and cool conditions. Aftwrds, clds will re-advc back across the

N on Thu with warm advcn rnfl movg in from the SW later Thu aftn

into Thu ngt, affecting all of the FA as a sig s/wv from the

Great lks apchs. Rn may be hvy attms ovrngt Thu into erly Fri

morn with possible isold to sct embedded tstms as PWs reach arnd

1.50+ inches alg with patchy to areas of fog.

Aftwrds, longer range models vary with the track of Elsa`s

remains, with tdy`s 12z dtmnstc GFS furthest S and most

progressive, meaning rnfl would end by late Fri morn across the

N and diminish to lighter rnfl across Downeast areas by late

aftn/eve. The 12z ECMWF solution, represents the xtrm opposite

end of the range of solutions, actually lighter with rnfl with

the lead s/wv Thu aftn into Fri morn, and much more with heavier

rnfl later Fri into Fri ngt, with the remains of Elsa caught up

in a more amplified separate s/wv from the TN rvr vly. The 12z

Can solution is about hlf way between the GFS/ECMWF solutions.

Given that the NHC official track is msly further S than tdy`s

12z ECMWF solution, we optd to lean more toward the 12z

GFS/CanGEM solutions to be more in ln with NHC track/WPC long

range guidance. In any event, please monitor latest NHC bulletin

guidance on the progress and latest track guidance on Elsa.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

What`s left of any rnfl/shwrs Sat morn across SE ptns of the FA

Sat morn will exit E across the Can Maritimes by aftn as post

tropical Elsa accelerates and quickly moves well E of our FA.

This should result in fair conditions and near seasonable temps

for the second hlf of the weekend and into Mon, with abv

seasonal norms for Mon aftn`s hi temps.

Tue will begin fair and cont`d warm, then clds will increase by

Tue aftn as the next series of s/wvs from the great lks apchs

with late day shwrs and maybe tstms possible......

473 

WTNT35 KNHC 070246

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST

AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha

Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River

Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico

and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been

discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of

Chokoloskee, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla

River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key

* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee

River

* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North

Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening

situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast

should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located 

by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler 

weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa 

is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 

motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the 

north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster 

northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa 

will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later 

tonight and early Wednesday morning.  Elsa is forecast to make 

landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday 

morning and then move across the southeastern United States through 

Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until 

landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves 

inland by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles

(130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind 

of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 

aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning 

area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical 

storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in 

the Florida Keys through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions 

are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the 

Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early 

Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical 

Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and 

along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south

of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain

areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and

impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the

Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up

to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable

flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate

river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum

totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in

considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to

isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches

Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated

flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western

and central Florida Peninsula.  The tornado threat will continue on

Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South

Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas

and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida

Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday.  These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office

for more details.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

000

WTNT45 KNHC 070257

TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the 

development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled 

off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, 

WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average 

Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were 

co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher 

reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. 

Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 

around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters 

elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west 

side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured 

by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. 

However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the 

strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial 

intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops 

around the ragged eye feature later tonight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue 

tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the 

northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward 

the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some 

acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the 

western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught 

up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The 

official track forecast lies between the simple and 

corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track 

forecast.

Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the 

vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, 

which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations 

are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along 

with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming 

nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow 

convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air 

just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from 

occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to 

increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure 

gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to 

increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system 

over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to 

tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North 

Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast 

is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus 

intensity models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant 

flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and 

northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may 

result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate 

river flooding.  Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast 

Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia 

may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable 

flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the 

Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions

of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm

Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday 

along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane 

Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring 

across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread 

northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area 

through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the

coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple

of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the

coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 27.3N  83.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 29.0N  83.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 31.4N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 36H  08/1200Z 33.9N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 48H  09/0000Z 36.4N  77.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 60H  09/1200Z 39.3N  73.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

 72H  10/0000Z 42.8N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER

 96H  11/0000Z 51.0N  54.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Stewart