Sunday, August 22, 2021

Henri Weakens To A TD Over Connecticut After Making Landfall As A TS In Rhode Island

































000
WTNT33 KNHC 230243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 73.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri 
was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), 
and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected 
through early Monday morning.  A slow turn toward the north is 
expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the 
east-northeast Monday afternoon.  A faster motion toward the 
east-northeast is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Henri 
is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the 
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across Massachusetts 
on Monday afternoon and Monday night and over the Atlantic on 
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional slow weakening is likely during the next couple of 
days.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 
1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long 
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast 
Pennsylvania through Monday.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New 
York.  Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in 
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the 
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with 
Tropical Depression Henri see the following link: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF:  Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast 
of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into Monday.  These 
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tropical Depression Henri.  Future information on this 
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header 
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230243
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface 
observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 
25 kt.  A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, 
and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that 
the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence 
into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so.  Beyond 48 hours the dynamical 
guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity.

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is 
moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Henri is interacting 
with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United 
States.  As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is 
expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the 
east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion 
into Tuesday.  The official forecast track is similar to the 
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern 
mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri.
Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories 
issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under 
AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, 
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for 
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions 
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and 
northeast Pennsylvania.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 41.9N  73.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  23/1200Z 42.1N  73.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 42.4N  72.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 42.8N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  25/0000Z 43.4N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1110 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-231515-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
1110 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North
Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards
to Henri`s track toward the New England region. Stay up to date on
the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1012 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MEZ029-030-231015-
/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210823T1200Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
1012 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Washington and Coastal Hancock Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will
  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a
  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock
  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves
  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.

&&

8:56 PM ADT Sunday 22 August 2021
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Tropical Depression Henri.

THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 03:00 A.M. ADT.

Tropical Depression Henri continues inland over New England.

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 P.M. ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 41.7 NORTH 72.8 WEST ABOUT 120 KM SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY NEW YORK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MILLIBARS.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS.

Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken and slow down as it moves inland over New England, possibly making it as far west into the state of New York before making the turn east towards the Maritimes on Monday.

Forecast guidance continues to indicate that some remnant moisture from Henri will cross the southern Maritimes Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be variable but some regions in the Maritimes could see 20 to 40 millimetres by Tuesday evening.

No significant wind is expected over Maritimes land areas at this time.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS.

Long period swell up to 2 metres along the Atlantic coast with waves breaking higher along parts of the coast will begin to subside overnight and into Monday. Ocean waves of 2 to 4 metres over marine regions south and west of Nova Scotia will also begin to subside tonight into Monday.

There is a threat for rip tides along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia into Monday, and caution should be observed.

Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.

FORECASTER(S): MCARTHUR/MARCH

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCAR 222250
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pres will remain across the region tonight with a frontal
boundary draped across the coastal waters. Henri will move east
across southern New England on Monday and dissipate while
tracking across our region on Tuesday. High pressure will build
over the area Wednesday. Low pressure will track north of the
area on Thursday with a cold front moving across the region
Thursday evening. High pressure will build into the area on
Friday.....

Previous Discussion...
Tropical Storm Henri continues to track into southern New
England this afternoon. This system will continue to weaken as
Henri spends more time over land. Eventually the remnants of
Henri will eject eastward out over the Gulf of Maine. In the
meantime, the outer rain bands of Henri are beginning to
encroach on our coast. This will be the first chance at rainfall
from the system, with scattered showers moving into the
Downeast region this evening. Rain showers will continue to
spread northwards through Monday morning and spread all the way
up through the St. John Valley.

Humid conditions will continue tonight as a tropical airmass
continues to sit over our area. With light winds and dewpoints
in the low to mid-60s, fog will once again be a threat to
visibility across the entire region. Locally dense fog is
possible, especially along the coast tomorrow morning.

High temperatures will remain warm Monday afternoon despite
mostly cloudy skies, due to the warm tropical airmass in place.
Highs will reach into the upper 70s to around 80 across the
north where breaks in the clouds are possible, and will stay in
the mid-70s Downeast due to the persistent marine layer.

&&

.....SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The remnant low of Henri along with an upper lvl trof will be
crossing the FA Mon Ngt into Tue morn with shwrs and perhaps
isold tstms with elevated CAPE with patchy to areas of msly
late ngt and erly morn fog with moist tropical air in place as
precip waters reach into the 1.50 - 2.00 inch range across our
Rgn. A few models are now indicating more QPF for areas alg the
NB border Mon Ngt into Erly Tue Morn, but not all models agree,
so we increased QPF and PoPs only somewhat ovr this area in the
event new model runs back off from this scenario.

Tue aftn will see more in the way of some sunshine and a return
of warmer hi temps, but left ovr moisture and instabilty could
result in sct tstms, with increasing capping alf with the apch
of upper lvl ridging likely keeping tstms fairly low topped.

Showers and tstms should dissipate erly Tue Eve with the loss of
dytm htg. Otherwise, skies should clr Tue ngt with ptly to msly
sunny skies and cont`d very warm and humid for Wed.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Msly clr and humid conditions will cont Wed Ngt. On Thu, a
stronger cold front will apch from QB by aftn, bringing another
chc of sct aftn/eve shwrs/tstms to the Rgn. Behind this front,
sig cooler and much drier air will move into the FA for late Thu
ngt thru Fri on a fresh NW breeze. Fri Ngt will be fairly chilly
as Can sfc hi pres settles ovr FA by late ngt. Sat will be fair
with slightly warmer aftn hi temps. A warm front will bring some
cldnss alg with a chc of shwrs to Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA for
late Sat Ngt into Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue across all terminals
north of BGR under mostly clear skies this afternoon. BGR/BHB
remain MVFR, though ceilings will quickly fall to IFR as the
first rain bands from Henri push into the area. LIFR conditions
likely overnight tonight with scattered rain showers moving over
the coast, and fog building in reducing visibilities further.
Northern terminals will also fall to IFR as ceilings lower and
showers move in, and visibilities may decrease to IFR/LIFR in
patchy fog. Not much improvement expected during the day on
Monday, though northern terminals may become MVFR during the day
as ceilings lift slightly due to diurnal heating. BGR/BHB will
likely remain IFR through the day on Monday with low ceilings. Light
E to SE winds at around 5 kts expected through the period.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon Ngt - Tue Morn...Low MVFR - LIFR all
TAF sites in shwrs and fog. Lgt winds.

Tue Aftn...MVFR to VFR clgs all TAF sites. Sct shwrs/tstms. Lgt
winds xcpt in tstms.

Tue Ngt - Thu Morn...VFR all TAF sites.

Thu Aftn/Eve...Low VFR clgs with sct shwrs/tstms all TAF sites
with brief MVFR vsbys possible in heavier downpours. Lgt winds

Late Thu Ngt - Fri...VFR all TAF sites with lgt to mdt NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas will remain above SCA levels tonight as
southerly swell associated with Tropical Storm Henri moves in.
Seas are expected to drop below SCA levels Monday afternoon.
Winds may briefly gust to 25 kts tonight before tapering off on
Monday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas just below SCA criteria Mon
Ngt into Tue with left ovr swell from the remnant low of Henri,
then seas diminishing by late week as winds remain msly lgt.
Kept close to blended model wv guidance with wvs dominated by
long pd swell of 10 to 12 sec Mon Ngt thru Wed Eve before
shorter fetch wv pds of 8 sec or less dominate late Wed Ngt and
beyond. Marine fog will dominate Mon Ngt into Tue before winds
shift from offshore and dissipate fog.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and Tropical Storm Henri will bring
near-shore waves to around 5 feet with 12 to 15 second periods
through the overnight hours. High tide will occur around 11:45pm
tonight and with long period swell expect have issued High Surf
Advisory for coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents are also
expected.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&
$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Strausser
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...AStrauser/VJN
Marine...AStrauser/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...VJN/Strausser

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021
 
...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE 
ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler 
weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of 
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island 
near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the 
time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60 
mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently 
measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph 
(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode 
Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.
  
SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan
 
NNNN

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